Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 12:35 | Report Abuse

Base on above assumption. 3 possible scenarios

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 12:39 | Report Abuse

1. Privatization but remain listing

Majorshareholder with 36.6% holding ( based on JoeZhang's data ) will offer RM3 per share ( against NA of 2.82 ) to remaining shareholders. If all shareholders taking the offer , will be RM1.35B
Shareholders has the option to cash out or holding the stock.
MPHBCAP will merge or JV with property development company to unlock the value of the asset. New shares will be issue through private placement

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 12:41 | Report Abuse

Scenario 2

Pay RM1 dividend. Keep remaining RM1 per share as working capital or acquisition of property development company to unlock the value of the asset

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 12:42 | Report Abuse

Scenario 3

Minimum dividend pay. Keep all cash for acquisition or working capital. Unlock the value of the asset

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 12:43 | Report Abuse

I think scenario 1 and 2 higher probability to happen than scenario 3.

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 12:44 | Report Abuse

If scenario 1 and 2 happen , stock price will boost beyond 2.
If scenario 3 happen , stock price will stay at current level

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 13:06 | Report Abuse

My advice. Don't pay too much attention on the short term fluctuation of the stock price. Vote for the resolution during EGM. Attend virtual AGM on 30th June. Then celebrate in Q3

Posted by TheContrarian > 2022-05-20 13:15 | Report Abuse

Privatisation means taking the company private. It cannot remain listed after been privatised.

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 13:19 | Report Abuse

@TheContrarian

I'm using the privatization term to reflect the action where some company using the internal cash to buy over the remaining of the share while still keeping afloat. ( as per the announcement last Friday)

Do you have any idea of the term use for this action.

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 13:23 | Report Abuse

@theContrarion

Regarding the RM460MM , my view was that this amount of money is not keep aside for dividend payment.
Is a probation if Generali exercise the Put Option by or before 15th Nov 2020 ( if I remember the date correctly ). The amount adjusted every quarter during the QR to reflect the latest calculation as per the deed.
After the Put option lapse , only MPHBCAP can utilize the cash

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-20 13:38 | Report Abuse

@Opportunate, the term is SCR (selective capital reduction) ie buying out majority of the independent shareholders (called disinterested shareholders). After the SCR, the major shareholder (SU) and his related shareholders ( called interested shareholders) shall continue to own the company. The company can subsequently be re- listed if the interested shareholders wish.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-20 13:42 | Report Abuse

I think once the interested shareholders taken it private thru SRC, they will progressively strip the company by monetisating assets by assets over years .

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-20 13:43 | Report Abuse

Because all the landed assets worths a few $ billions and they are all in very strategic locations.

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 13:45 | Report Abuse

@johnzhang. Thanks for sharing the term

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 13:48 | Report Abuse

@johnzhang. Agree with you. Assume 63.4% of shareholding willing to accept the SCR , majorshareholder will end up with few billion worth of assets , which translated into more than RM10 per share

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-20 13:48 | Report Abuse

I have consistently said that privatization thru SCR is imminent . There is just too lucrative for major shareholders to strip the assets eventually.

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 13:50 | Report Abuse

My personnel view was that Majorshareholder didn't need cash from MPHBCAP. HE can get cash from Magnum. As Magnum holding few % of U Mobile shares , once U Mobile IPO , Magnum will return the cash to shareholder. The land more valuable to him than cash

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 13:51 | Report Abuse

Scenario 2 will be the best for minor shareholders. While getting cash , can still participate in long term gain from the asset.

Posted by speakup > 2022-05-20 14:55 | Report Abuse

speakup prefer scenario 1.
scenario 3 is like mphbcap screw us minorites

Posted by Endgame > 2022-05-20 14:56 | Report Abuse

Go limit up first, show the deal is a real

Posted by Endgame > 2022-05-20 14:57 | Report Abuse

If not all is just nice talk but no action

Posted by chkhooju > 2022-05-20 15:00 | Report Abuse

Yes, reality speaks louder than words!

Posted by chkhooju > 2022-05-20 15:01 | Report Abuse

Talk and talk. At the end of the day, still talking.

Posted by chkhooju > 2022-05-20 15:14 | Report Abuse

If what I said has offended anyone, I beg your pardon. We are all in the same boat to reap big profits. Okay, guys 'Sorry',

Posted by TheContrarian > 2022-05-20 16:42 | Report Abuse

SCR is a make-or-break privatisation and automatic delisting. If approved, all the shares of the disinterested minorites will be cancelled.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-05-20 16:54 | Report Abuse

Nice closing today. Weak holders are being ‘eaten up’ gradually by shark/insider until special dividend and/or capital reduction is announced in a few weeks time .

Posted by Endgame > 2022-05-20 16:58 | Report Abuse

U don't like limit up?

Posted by Endgame > 2022-05-20 17:13 | Report Abuse

Bro John, i sold all ytd, i can buy back today also, this is market...nothing is fixed and permanent

Posted by Goh123 > 2022-05-20 17:22 | Report Abuse

good closing

Posted by TheContrarian > 2022-05-20 17:36 | Report Abuse

QR just out.

Posted by Goh123 > 2022-05-20 18:08 | Report Abuse

qr no need to see liao. 95%contribute from insurance.hahaga

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 20:01 | Report Abuse

My understanding when MPHBCAP 1st declare 5 sen of dividend.
MPHBCAP yet to dispose the land at Sungai Rusa , Balik Pulau and Pengerang.
MPHBCAP didn't explain the reason of the rejection by BNM but from write up I read , it mentioned that BNM rejection due to the stringent cash flow or liquidity for insurance businesses.
As MPHBCAP selling away insurance business and no longer need approval from BNM for dividend payment , the management will able to pay dividend as long as not exceeding the retain earning. It will be different ball game after the disposal

Posted by Kaya Toast > 2022-05-20 20:03 | Report Abuse

EGM will need to grill them properly what do they meant by earmark rm46.50mil to prepare the lands.. if it is fees to convert pengerang land from agriculture to industrial, its definitely a plus points.

Posted by Kaya Toast > 2022-05-20 20:06 | Report Abuse

From AM investment announcements, do the rm982.44mil proforma cash and securities inclusive of liquidations of Nomura-I fund?

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 20:13 | Report Abuse

@Kaya Toast

Do you have the full report from AM investment ? Can look at it in more details. Thank you

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 20:24 | Report Abuse

If the management didn't do anything after disposal of insurance business , will be classify as PN1 status.
Privatization possible or the company acquire new businesses through M&A or more JV to release the value of the land bank

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 20:31 | Report Abuse

Don't worry too much. Relax and have a nice weekend.

Posted by Endgame > 2022-05-20 20:35 | Report Abuse

That's good 40 cents, above my expectation 10 cents...limit up next week

Posted by Goh123 > 2022-05-20 20:38 | Report Abuse

agree youwin

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 21:20 | Report Abuse

I started investing in the 90s. Many majorshareholders did that , privatizing the companies when the stock value way below their value and IPO again many years later with hefty return.
Recently for many cases , minority shareholders awareness increases , team up together and through legal action , blocking unfair deal and delay the execution.

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 21:26 | Report Abuse

I take a neutral stand as of now. Just wait and see , then react. Cautiously optimistic is my usual strategy

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 21:30 | Report Abuse

Why want to put so much attention to predict the daily stock price up and down unless with plan to transact now ?
Else , relax and wait for announcement of EGM date follow by AGM.

Posted by Goh123 > 2022-05-20 21:33 | Report Abuse

noted...and indeed

Posted by TheContrarian > 2022-05-20 21:44 | Report Abuse

AGM date already announced to be held on 30.6.2022.

Posted by Opportunate > 2022-05-20 22:08 | Report Abuse

Looking forward for the AGM as I think many questions will be thrown to the management regarding post insurance sales. Can get some light from the sharing.

Posted by Endgame > 2022-05-20 22:52 | Report Abuse

Team up to get 26%, and give reject vote?

Posted by IanQ > 2022-05-21 00:04 | Report Abuse

why is mphbcap hoarding so much cash?

Posted by TheContrarian > 2022-05-21 06:38 | Report Abuse

If the proposed disposal is not approved, Surin can't touch the cash hoard forever.

Posted by chkhooju > 2022-05-21 07:51 | Report Abuse

It will definitely go through. Minority share holders can never get their way.

Posted by Goh123 > 2022-05-21 08:32 | Report Abuse

let's go with us go to EGM. for vote