Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-01 15:07 | Report Abuse

Warrants and call options both have exercise price, expiration date and option price

Call options are issued by market makers and have short expiration dates. In Malaysia call options are also named as warrants

Warrants are issued by the company, have long expiration dates and have dilution effects

Pricing of warrants and call options is a math problem and has been solved using the Black Scholes model.

Equation can be viewed here https://miro.medium.com/max/527/1*HV_I82cyzFtmiZoSaBechA.png

Sample inputs and outputs using the traditional BSM (non-dliutive) model for Insas WC:

Volatility: 64%
Stock Price: 0.88
Strike Price: 0.90
Interest Rate: 2.62%
Warrants/share: 1
Days to Expiration: 1155

Snapshot @0.88 __Calls
Price ___________ 0.394
Delta ___________ 0.733
Gamma _________ 0.328
Theta ___________ 0
Vega ___________ 0.005
Rho ____________ 0.008
Elasticity ________ 1.64

Stock Price ___ Theoretical Warrant $ __Time Value
0.08 _________ 0.002 ______________ 0.002
0.29 _________ 0.047 ______________ 0.047
0.49 _________ 0.141 ______________ 0.141
0.70 _________ 0.265 ______________ 0.265
0.90 _________ 0.409 ______________ 0.409
1.10 _________ 0.566 ______________ 0.362
1.31 _________ 0.734 ______________ 0.324
1.51 _________ 0.908 ______________ 0.293
1.72 _________ 1.087 ______________ 0.268
1.92 _________ 1.271 ______________ 0.246
2.13 _________ 1.458 ______________ 0.228
3.00 _________ 2.276 ______________ 0.176
3.50 _________ 2.757 ______________ 0.157
3.75 _________ 2.999 ______________ 0.149

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-01 15:22 | Report Abuse

You will lose in roulette if you think of it as a gambling theory

Roulette is a math problem that has been solved

Formula here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1204.6412.pdf




stockraider U NEED TO UNDERSTAND GAMBLING THEORY B4, U TALK ABOUT LEVERAGE LOH!

LET SAY U GO GENTING & U BET ON ROULETTE NUMBERS...THE PAYOUT IS 36 TO 1 LOH!
THAT MEANS IF U WIN, U WILL GET 36 CHIPS....OUT OF 37 NUMBERS ( 0 TO 36).

THAT MEANS THE HOUSE ADVANTAGE OVER US IS 2.7% OR 1 DIVIDE BY 37.

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-22 09:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-01 15:43 | Report Abuse

LTCM's collapse was due to the products or technologies that they have developed. Math was not the root cause.

LTCM could have diversified into mangoes and nasi lemak and condoned F words in townhall meetings. Thus the failure.



i3lurker never forget Black Souls bankrupted LTCM


///Pricing of warrants and call options is a math problem and has been solved using the Black Scholes model.///
01/08/2021 3:27 PM

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-01 15:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-01 17:39 | Report Abuse

BOLOH THIS LENO LOH!

INSAS-WC RM 0.295 KENA TAMBAH RM 0.90 = RM 1.195 BARU JADI INSAS MOTHER MAH!

TAPI INSAS MOTHER BARU RM 0.88 MAH!
WHY NOT JUST INVEST IN INSAS MOTHER LEH ?

WHY BUY RM 0.295 & TAMBAH RM 0.90 TO GET INSAS MOTHER LEH ?
WHEN CAN GET INSAS MOTHER AT RM 0.88 SEN LOH!

ANSWER U R SPECULATING IN INSAS-WC AT RM 0.295....HOPING INSAS GO ABOVE TO RM 1.20, SO THAT YOUR INSAS-WC MAKE MONEY LOH!

WHEN YOUR WARRANT OUT OF MONEY OR RUGI WHEN U CONVERT TO MOTHER, IF U BUY U R SPECULATING LOH ? JUST LIKE BUYING WC AT RM 0.295 LOH!

NOW LU TAU BOH ?


Posted by leno > Aug 1, 2021 5:00 PM | Report Abuse

Speculator vs not speculator.

Invest in warrant is speculator.
Invest in mother is not speculator.

Please go fak the nearest lamp post u can see.

Leno ask u,
invest in Serbak warrant is speculator or not ?
How about invest in Serbak instead ?

This simple example already can tell us what is speculator and what not.
It is what company and how u invest that define u.
Mother or warrant, u put money inside serbak, u are speculator.
Some more use BORROW money.

Do u know raider is using BORROW money to invest.
Does this make raider a speculator ?
Actually yes. He speculate he can make more if he used borrow money.
He will give example of businessman borrow bank money to open business.
Right ?

Below is one stupeed OLD story about speculating activity that u can onli read in this forum.
Not anywhere else.

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-01 18:50 | Report Abuse

Leno,

I have a medical question for you.

Oral rehydration therapy (ORT) is the default choice of treatment for 'backdoor' (diarrhea) problems. Under what conditions will intravenous antibiotics be administered for selected risk groups such as people with immunodeficiency?

One of the side effects of chemotherapy is hyperpigmentation (darkening) of skin colour. PRRT can cause depigmentation (lightening) of skin colour

What other treatments or medications can result in visible depigmentation of skin colour?



leno There is the problem here.
By end of august, u will know who to trust, but u may be too late to buy Insas-WC.

Leno is the OLDEST Oldbie in investment forum.
Leno reputation is undisputable.

Leno retired from medical profession (doctor) at age of 39 years old !!
Now 50 already.
Trust Leno.
29/07/2021 1:58 PM

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-26 16:13 | Report Abuse

Leno, no worries.

Was just curious when I saw paragraph 2 of KYY's blog

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2021-07-11-story-h1567924222-Why_should_investors_get_out_of_the_stock_market_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

"...and Muhyiddin became the PM by the back door. Currently he is seriously terminally ill with cancer in KL Hospital. Apparently, he has pancreatic cancer."

and saw a recent picture at:

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/07/22/muhyiddin-attends-malaysia-berzikir-programme/1991891

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-08-02 10:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by risktoreward > 2021-08-02 14:05 | Report Abuse

enter @ 0.295

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-03 11:57 | Report Abuse

Good Luck!

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-08 17:57 | Report Abuse

Insas news bullish mah!

Charge ah...no retreat loh!

key highlights

• Noticeably too, INSAS’ share of Inari Amertron’s existing market cap (14.4% of RM12.88b) stands at RM1.85b presently,which is slightly more than tripled its own current market valuation of RM583.5m.

For the 9-month period ended March 2021, INSAS reported net profit of RM217.3m (from net loss of RM2.4m previously),lifted by a combination of robust operating earnings and exceptional gains from financial assets.

• Valuation-wise, the stock is currently trading at a PBV multiple of 0.30x (based on its book value per share of RM2.96 as ofend-March 2021), which is near its 3-year historical mean.

• Riding on the renewed strength, INSAS’ share price will probably climb to test our immediate resistance target of RM1.00 (R1;14% upside potential). A break above R1 may then lift the stock towards our next resistance threshold of RM1.07 (R2; 22%upside potential).


Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > Aug 3, 2021 3:01 PM | Report Abuse

Insas Bhd (Trading Buy) 3.8.2021

• As an indirect technology play – via its 14.4% stake in semiconductor service provider Inari Amertron (whose share price hasrisen 26.8% YTD) – INSAS shares (down 6.4% YTD) could play catch up ahead.

• Noticeably too, INSAS’ share of Inari Amertron’s existing market cap (14.4% of RM12.88b) stands at RM1.85b presently,which is slightly more than tripled its own current market valuation of RM583.5m.

• The group also has exposure to the stock market activity (via its wholly-owned stockbroking company M&A Securities) withother businesses in investment holding & trading, retail trading & car rental and property investment & development.

• For the 9-month period ended March 2021, INSAS reported net profit of RM217.3m (from net loss of RM2.4m previously),lifted by a combination of robust operating earnings and exceptional gains from financial assets.

• Valuation-wise, the stock is currently trading at a PBV multiple of 0.30x (based on its book value per share of RM2.96 as ofend-March 2021), which is near its 3-year historical mean.

• On the chart, the stock could attempt to exit an ongoing consolidation pattern following the DMI Plus crossover of the DMIMinus signal and the rising momentum indicator above the zero line.

• Riding on the renewed strength, INSAS’ share price will probably climb to test our immediate resistance target of RM1.00 (R1;14% upside potential). A break above R1 may then lift the stock towards our next resistance threshold of RM1.07 (R2; 22%upside potential).

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-03 11:25 | Report Abuse

Wc rm 3.00 eat plenty more big head vegetable loh!

Posted by leno > Aug 3, 2021 3:25 PM | Report Abuse

Sexy Lady TP RM 3 Ringgit !!
HAHAHAHAHAH !!

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-04 11:23 | Report Abuse

Good Luck loh..!

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-05 07:33 | Report Abuse

Good luck.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-05 09:26 | Report Abuse

Insas hooray $$$$$$$$ !!

Posted by Mikecyc > 2021-08-05 15:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2021-08-05 15:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2021-08-05 16:00 | Report Abuse

Main Market : Other Financials
High 0.320
Low 0.305
Volume 324,500
Volume (B/S) 5,000 / 429,500
Price Bid/Ask 0.310 / 0.315

52w 0.200 - 0.320

Type CALL
Issued on 2021-03-01
Maturity 2026-02-28
Strike value 0.9000
Ratio 1:1
Gearing 2.89
Premium 0.315
Premium % 35.20
Share Price 0.895
Issuer

Posted by Mikecyc > 2021-08-05 16:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-05 16:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-05 17:10 | Report Abuse

Insas up....very good development mah!

Posted by risktoreward > 2021-08-06 09:29 | Report Abuse

sold all @ 0.325 for 10% gain, thank you, good luck comrades

Posted by TheContrarian > 2021-08-06 10:32 | Report Abuse

Congratulations to R2R.

Posted by risktoreward > 2021-08-10 16:41 | Report Abuse

thanks @thecontrarian, but I believe still got legs, as inari will almost certainly challenge its all time high and insas usually follows

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-06 11:14 | Report Abuse

Mike
PA 36 cent
WC toilet paper 33.5 cents.
Soon overtake PA

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-06 11:22 | Report Abuse

I sold most of my free WC from 29 to 31 cents to buy more Insas. Should have keep the WC too.

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-06 11:34 | Report Abuse

leno,

Updated table below.

The theoretical price of WC is 0.65 when the share price reaches 1.21

Black Scholes yang cakap.


Sample inputs and outputs using the traditional BSM (non-dliutive) model for Insas WC:

Volatility: 64%
Stock Price: 0.88
Strike Price: 0.90
Interest Rate: 2.62%
Warrants/share: 1
Days to Expiration: 1150

Snapshot @0.91 __Calls
Price ___________ 0.394
Delta ___________ 0.733
Gamma _________ 0.328
Theta ___________ 0
Vega ___________ 0.005
Rho ____________ 0.008
Elasticity ________ 1.64

Stock Price ___ Theoretical Warrant $ __Time Value
0.08 _________ 0.002 ______________ 0.002
0.29 _________ 0.047 ______________ 0.047
0.49 _________ 0.141 ______________ 0.141
0.70 _________ 0.265 ______________ 0.265
0.90 _________ 0.409 ______________ 0.409
1.10 _________ 0.566 ______________ 0.362
1.21 _________ 0.651 ______________ 0.341
1.31 _________ 0.734 ______________ 0.324
1.51 _________ 0.908 ______________ 0.293
1.72 _________ 1.087 ______________ 0.268
1.92 _________ 1.271 ______________ 0.246
2.13 _________ 1.458 ______________ 0.228
3.00 _________ 2.276 ______________ 0.176
3.50 _________ 2.757 ______________ 0.157
3.75 _________ 2.999 ______________ 0.149


leno Remember :
If mother shoot up to RM 1.21
WC will shoot down to 1 sen.

Ini bukan leno yang cakap hor.
Raider yang cakap.
06/08/2021 10:40 AM

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-06 12:41 | Report Abuse

leno,

I did not calculate the theoretical WC price when the share price is 83 sen.

Yes, the theoretical price of WC is indeed 35 sen if the share price is 83 sen.

If you are a male, I will call you a cunning-linguist.



leno Sslee and Contrarian please take a serious note here.
Based on Black Asshole diagram,

If WC is 35 sen, then mother share should be 83 sen.
Meaning, mother at 91 sen is far over-priced already.
Sell all, and swap to WC instead.

Again, this is also not leno cakap.
Psai yang cakap.
06/08/2021 12:30 PM

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-26 15:39 | Report Abuse

Haha,
No worries, I will ask for special dividend and shares dividend from Insas boss.
Also dividend policy of distribute not less than 75% dividend received from associate companies and fair value assets

Hence Insas shareholders will enjoy dividend and WC enjoy price appreciation.

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-06 13:12 | Report Abuse

INSAS number of shares issued: 663,020,762 (excluding 30,327,291 treasury shares)
Period end 31-3/2021 Dividend received: RM 33,162,000

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-06 14:07 | Report Abuse

leno,

Trust you got the answer. Sslee will issue 8.5 sen dividend to bring the share price down to 83 sen.



leno i mean, did leno say anything wrong ?

mother 83 sen, wc 35 sen
meaning mother over valued now, must sell mar.

or u can says mother 91.5 sen, wc should be 41.5 sen,
still same conclusion, sell mother to buy WC.

This is what your diagram say mar.
No ?
06/08/2021 12:47 PM


Sslee Haha,
No worries, I will ask for special dividend and shares dividend from Insas boss.
Also dividend policy of distribute not less than 75% dividend received from associate companies and fair value assets


06/08/2021 1:02 PM

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-06 15:39 | Report Abuse

leno,

When a 8.5 sen dividend is indeed announced, the share price will jump to 1.80.

After ex-dividend, share price will adjust to 1.72

The theoretical warrant price will then be 1.08

Mother would have doubled and WC would have tripled

Everyone will be correct except stockraider

Is this what's on your mind?



leno to Psai :
Damn ! U really can read my mind.
I want to answer same thing, but on 2nd thought why waste time.
U cannot teach an old donkey any tricks.

HAHAHAHAHAH !!
06/08/2021 3:18 PM

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-06 15:43 | Report Abuse

Haha,
Insas still hold many hundreds of million to acquire all cheap cheap stock, other company and etc.

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-06 16:49 | Report Abuse

Inari Amertron (INRI MK)
Record Year In The Making; Explosive Earnings Underway

Despite the typical earnings normalisation in 1Q21, volume loadings from Inari’s RF business are bucking the trend while optoelectronics picked up steam. Besides the exponential RF growth, new business expansions at P34 and P55 which bring along diversification are underway. Inari is staging to record a 3-year net profit CAGR of 38% in FY23. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of RM4.20.

I start counting Insas hold 545,503,575 Inari, so per year Insas will received how much dividend from Inari?

I will ask for dividend policy of distribute not less than 75% dividend received from associate companies and fair value assets but will settle for 50%.

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-06 16:02 | Report Abuse

Dear leno,
Insas hold 545,503,575 Inari. If Inari go up to RM 4.20 that will worth how much to Insas?

So as Inari go up for sure Insas will also go up.

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-06 16:20 | Report Abuse

Minority shareholders have the rights to ask for a reasonable dividend and for good corporate governance a well define dividend policy.

Whether the Board will agreed is out of our controlled.
I still hold 2.2 million Insas at about 85 cents cost. Will not sell when Insas intrinsic value is much higher than current share price.

Next AGM will sure ask for dividend better than the 2 cents

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-07 17:01 | Report Abuse

Don be silly lah!

If insas make more definitely & surely will pay more mah!

U think we only we want money meh ??

The owner, directors & management also want monies mah!

U check how much profit they make & how much cash they have ? VERY alot mah!

Thus be prepare for higher dividend loh!



leno aaa ... at least u come to your sense.

U are telling u don't mind any amount payout, but u prefer higher rather than lower, but the percentage can be subjectively change depending how leno poke u.
Fair enough.

Okay.
Common sense will tell us that payout ratio is neutral.
If Company payout out more, less cash, to grab any oppourtunity.
Especially this year when everything is LELONG price.

If company payout less, then u worry share price won't go up.
This is what u believe.

As u can see Berkshire payout out zero, but share price go up,
this showed that share price can go up without any payout.
This is fact. Proven fact.
WC can go up, without any right to dividends.
Another proven fact.

So, price go up is not based on payout ratio.
THIS u must repeat until it STICK FIRMLY in your brain.

Then, we can move on to why share price go up.
But u know already why share price will go up.
So, no need to discuss anymore.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-07 11:28 | Report Abuse

Sslee,

Do not worry about silly Leno, just continue with what u r doing & keep asking for more dividend loh!

U R do a great job, keep it up loh!

Ask & ye will receive....this is an old saying loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-08 14:56 | Report Abuse

selamat petang

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-09 10:31 | Report Abuse

Hi sslee,

With inari declaring dividend of another dividend of 2.5 sen for the latest qtr making it culmulative dividend of 11 sen, how much dividend u think is fair for insas to pay for the coming financial year end leh ?

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-09 09:51 | Report Abuse

Haha stockraider, if you like dividend and growth stock, you are welcome to buy Inari.

Insas-WC is forleno.

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-09 16:55 | Report Abuse

And by the way leno is looking at 50% gain from WC

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-09 11:33 | Report Abuse

Sslee,

I can read Leno's savant mind.

Her numbers are: daughter: 3.0 , mother: 3.93, grandmother: 5.0



Sslee And by the way leno is looking at 50% gain from WC
09/08/2021 10:53 AM

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-09 11:47 | Report Abuse

Leno is laughing all the way to the bank.

Mar 5, 2021 3:36 PM | Report Abuse

Hi ...just able to log in
Just a formality

Leno bought 10 Millions warrant today

Now holding a total of
- 17.5 Millions warrants.
- 0.5 Million mother share.
- RM 80 k cash

This is not a promotion, opposition, nor demolition.
If insas drop, feel free to laugh
If insas shoot up, leno feel free to laugh

No hard feeling on both sides, upside, downside or backside.

Everyone have brain, use your brain.
Do not use other people brain.
Do not use cat brain ... unless u are cat like leno.

You make money also no give some to leno
You lose money, please don't come and borrow from leno.
Leno need the money to migrate to Australia.

WISH EVERYONE ALL THE BEST !!
CHIA YIU INSAS !!
LOVE YOU ALL !!

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-12 16:46 | Report Abuse

Appears to be savant-based investing done right.

Perth, Melbourne, Brisbane or Sydney?

Leno should choose Melbourne.


Sslee Leno is laughing all the way to the bank.

Mar 5, 2021 3:36 PM | Report Abuse

You make money also no give some to leno
You lose money, please don't come and borrow from leno.
Leno need the money to migrate to Australia.

WISH EVERYONE ALL THE BEST !!
CHIA YIU INSAS !!
LOVE YOU ALL !!
09/08/2021 11:47 AM

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2021-08-12 19:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-09 18:35 | Report Abuse

@Michael Kwok,
Insas will go up further.
Imagine if Inari go up to RM4.50 Insas will be at what price when Insas hold 545.5 million inari share.
Insas is a cheaper entry to indirectly piggyback on Inari next phase of growth.

Analysts up Inari Amertron TPs after semiconductor maker reported record-high profit

By Cheryl Poo | theedgemarkets.com | 2021-08-09 13:40:09
KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 9): Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd today raised its target price (TP) for Inari Amertron Bhd to RM4.80 from RM4.60, while MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd upped its TP to RM4.48 from RM3.65, after the semiconductor contract manufacturer reported last Friday record-high fourth-quarter and full-year net profit which prompted analysts to raise their profit forecasts for the company.

In a note today, Kenanga analyst Samuel Tan said Kenanga, however, maintained its "outperform" recommendation for Inari shares.

Last Friday, Inari, which also offers outsourced semiconductor assembly and test services, said in a Bursa Malaysia filing that its net profit jumped to RM88.36 million for the fourth quarter ended June 30, 2021 (4QFY21) from RM35.47 million a year earlier, while revenue was higher at RM361.32 million from RM233.34 million.

For the full year, Inari said its cumulative FY21 net profit jumped to RM330.47 million from RM155.75 million a year earlier, while revenue climbed to RM1.43 billion from RM1.06 billion.

For 4QFY21, Inari declared a dividend of 2.5 sen a share, which brought its cumulative full-year dividends to 11 sen a share.

Today, Tan said Kenanga raised its core net profit forecast for Inari after the company's FY21 cumulative core net profit exceeded Kenanga's and the street's full-year estimates by 8% and 4% respectively. Core net profit excludes extraordinary items in a company’s income statement.

He said Kenanga raised its FY22 core net profit forecast for Inari by 5% to RM394 million and introduced its FY23 core net profit forecast of RM452 million.

"Having already established its dominance in the RF (radio frequency) space, Inari is still hungry for growth as it continues to aggressively work on new product introductions, especially in relation to data centre components.

"Inari is currently in discussion with three potential MNC (multinational corporation) customers, with one already secured and another exhibiting high probability of success.

“Its (Inari) 10% private placement of new shares to raise RM1 billion is in motion to accelerate its growth plan both organically and [via] potential M&A (mergers and acquisitions),” Tan said.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-10 12:31 | Report Abuse

Good luck loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-11 07:46 | Report Abuse

Good luck!