Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-21 17:00 | Report Abuse

Coming this few days must see support level @ 1343 ~ 1354 between...

If break, any time definitely can break below 1300 but I foresee overall market very very vulnerable.......

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-21 18:13 | Report Abuse

Brent Crude Oil big dropped again by 20% ++...

Now cheapest @ $ 20.73 (-$5.30)......KLCI drop further again tomorrow...

US DJIA future -400++ pt again......

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-21 19:39 | Report Abuse

Dow futures point to 500-point drop at the open as historic sell-off in oil continues

PUBLISHED MON, APR 20 20206:08 PM EDTUPDATED 7 MIN AGO

Stock futures pointed to big losses for a second day on Tuesday as oil prices continued their unprecedented wipeout.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 450 points and indicated a loss at the open of more than 500 points. S&P 500 futures lost 1.5%. Nasdaq futures also pointed to a lower open.


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-21 20:15 | Report Abuse

Oil continues unprecedented sell-off: June futures drop 20%, May contract still has a negative price

PUBLISHED MON, APR 20 20206:10 PM EDTUPDATED MOMENTS AGO

~ The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery still traded with a negative price on Tuesday, one day after falling below zero for the first time in history. 

~ Today is the last day of trading for the contract, which has fueled the contract’s wild price action.

~ The June contract is more actively traded and therefore a better indication of where traders believe oil is headed. It was 20% lower at $16.24, after closing above the $20 mark on Monday.

~ Amid unprecedented demand loss from the coronavirus pandemic, storage is quickly filling up, meaning there will soon be nowhere to store crude.


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/june-oil-futures-rebound-3percent-but-may-contract-is-still-trading-at-negative-price.html

Posted by Junichiro > 2020-04-21 20:48 | Report Abuse

Putin's masterstroke.

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-21 21:39 | Report Abuse

Sure DT wont come out with counterstroke ?
U see these type of global downswing frm US, one day massive down, nxt day massive up, not surprise, if tmrw up back, anyway not end of the world, yet...dont think global market will collapse bcause of this factor, c tmrw how.

Posted by firehawk > 2020-04-21 22:03 | Report Abuse

Hooray Hooray ... US plummets!

No big deal, is not the end of the world ... fat duck said death toll >40K is still very low, fat duck is very steady! is very exciting if oil price keeping low for a prolong period, than, we can see what show fat duck will put on! stay tune!

Posted by firehawk > 2020-04-21 22:10 | Report Abuse

2 weeks ago, fat duck coordinated russia and saudi to reduced oil output, Wah! many O&G counters jump, many ppl happy, fat duck also felt very proud of his affort, finally .....

thanks donald for putting on a very exciting show!

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-22 00:19 | Report Abuse

Well prepare for Global Credit Rating Agencies to downgrade Malaysia outlook since oil price tragedy plummeted......


If downgraded then more & more foreign funds will move out from Malaysia.....at the end more selling pressure on stocks market...

So income from oil expected to erase billions billion & some more government need more stimulus package to curb the current unprecedented health crisis 

Last 2 week, Fitch had given negative outlook for Malaysia 



##https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-malaysia-outlook-to-negative-affirms-at-a-09-04-2020



Fitch Revises Malaysia's Outlook to Negative; Affirms at 'A-' 

Thu 09 Apr, 2020 - 7:14 AM ET 

Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 09 Apr 2020: Fitch Ratings has revised its Outlook on Malaysia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Negative from Stable and has affirmed the rating at 'A-'.

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-22 08:27 | Report Abuse

US Oil Fund drops 25% after changing structure again as popular ETF tries to stave off collapse

(PUBLISHED TUE, APR 21 20209:33 AM EDTUPDATED MOMENTS AGO)

~ The Untied States Oil Fund dropped 25% on Tuesday as managers made multiple changes to the fund’s structure in an effort to stave off additional losses.

~ The fund, which trades under the ticker USO and which is popular with retail investors, seeks to track the price of oil.

~ One change is that the fund will now invest in multiple futures contracts, rather than focusing on the contract for the nearest month.


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/usos-benchmark-is-the-near-month-crude-oil-futures-contract-traded-on-the-nymex-if-the-near-month-futures-contract-is-within-two-weeks-of-expiration-the-benchmark-will-be-the-next-month-contract-to-ex.html

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-22 10:17 | Report Abuse

June oil futures contract drops more than 40% as crude continues unprecedented sell-off

(PUBLISHED MON, APR 20 20206:10 PM EDTUPDATED MOMENTS AGO0

~ The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery moved into positive territory on Tuesday, one day after falling below zero for the first time in history.

~ Tuesday is the last day of trading for the contract, which has fueled the contract’s wild price action.

~ The June contract is more actively traded and therefore a better indication of where traders believe oil is headed. It fell 43.37% on Tuesday to settle at $11.57 per barrel, after closing above the $20 mark on Monday.

~ Amid unprecedented demand loss from the coronavirus pandemic, storage is quickly filling up, meaning there will soon be nowhere to store crude.


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/june-oil-futures-rebound-3percent-but-may-contract-is-still-trading-at-negative-price.html

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-22 14:05 | Report Abuse

Oil ETF Crisis Spreads to Hong Kong as Fund Tumbles 50%

(April 22, 2020, 10:11 AM GMT+8 Updated on April 22, 2020, 1:11 PM GMT+8)

The unprecedented drop in U.S. oil futures is rippling through the world’s exchange-traded fund market, with the latest example in Hong Kong.

The Samsung S&P GSCI Crude Oil ER Futures ETF, which held more than $500 million worth of the derivatives as of April 20, lost half its value in Hong Kong on Wednesday. The 50% slump to HK$1.65 was both the biggest decline and the ETF’s lowest level since trading began in May 2016.

Samsung Asset Management (Hong Kong) Ltd, which manages the fund, said in a Tuesday exchange filing that the fund will sell its entire holdings of June oil contracts and buy September contracts. It also warned that in a “worst case scenario,” the net asset value of the fund may drop to zero and investors may suffer “a total loss” of their investments.

“There is a big tracking error after the ETF switches from tracking June futures to September futures,” said Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi International Hong Kong. “The value of the ETF evaporates by more than half because of the plunge in oil futures.”

In the U.S., the United States Oil Fund, the biggest ETF tracking crude prices, took a series of unusual actions after losing a third of its value in two days. It had to suspend the issuance of new shares, an action that could leave it untethered from prices it’s supposed to track.

ETFs are being rattled because of a quirk in the main U.S. oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate futures, which requires anyone holding contracts after they expire to be able to take delivery of crude in the oil hub of Cushing, Oklahoma.

Storage tanks there could be completely full by May because of unprecedented lockdown measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus, which have decimated fuel demand. With fewer people able to buy crude and store it, liquidity in near-term contracts could dry up and create squeezes like Monday, when U.S. futures fell to as low as minus $40 a barrel. So ETFs are spreading their exposure into further-out contracts.


##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/oil-etf-crisis-spreads-to-hong-kong-as-futures-fund-tumbles-45?srnd=premium-asia

Posted by ahbah > 2020-04-22 14:09 | Report Abuse

Maybe all petrol stations should give free petrol to all motorists since oil is trading at negative value ?

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-22 14:14 | Report Abuse

‘This Has Changed Everything’: Saudi Economy Shaken by Oil Crash

(April 21, 2020, 9:12 PM GMT+8 Updated on April 22, 2020, 1:04 AM GMT+8)

The meltdown in oil markets is turning back the economic clock for Saudi Arabia, putting it on track for the deepest contraction in two decades.

Already under lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, the world’s largest crude exporter is bracing for a second impact from the oil rout and unprecedented production cuts negotiated by OPEC and its allies. Both will slash government revenue, and in turn derail a fragile economic recovery. Brent crude traded at under $19 a barrel on Tuesday -- a quarter of the level Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget -- leaving officials with limited options to offset economic pain without crippling public finances.

“This has changed everything,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. “So much of the recent recovery was based on the fact that the oil price had been above $50-$60, providing support to economic activity, and that’s just been decimated.”

The setback presents difficult choices for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. After the last oil price slump, from 2014 to 2016, he announced a major economic transformation plan. While officials have made significant progress -- developing fledging sectors like entertainment and lifting non-oil revenue with taxes and fees -- the economy still hinges on crude. Now the price shock is threatening many of the government’s gains, making it difficult to fund projects and investments when over 60% of revenue this year was meant to come from oil.

Ricardo Hausmann, an economist at Harvard University, compared the situation facing Saudi Arabia to “war being fought on at least two fronts,” according to a recent presentation for Saudi officials, seen by Bloomberg, that outlined the dual hit from the pandemic and the oil crisis.

“Each shock in itself is huge,” Hausmann wrote. “Both at the same time makes things much more complex.”


##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/-this-has-changed-everything-saudi-economy-shaken-by-oil-crash

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-22 21:06 | Report Abuse

Current KLCI Full of Trap & Cross Death Direction - Anytime Pullback 1275 ~ 1300 Level

@Keyman188 , tdy, KLCI close back to 1381, aftr drop to 1359.

how come no more squeek here ?
Is the trap & death direction still on ? need your expert insight ..

Also, wht happen to plunging Brent Crude Oil ? so silent here ?

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-22 21:08 | Report Abuse

i'm counting on your professional ethics here, dont leave us hanging 1/2 way ya, now v loss alrdy...

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-22 21:26 | Report Abuse

S&P 500 faces more weakness as pressure builds, chart analyst warns

PUBLISHED WED, APR 22 20207:17 AM EDT

The S&P 500 could see more pain.

So says Mark Newton, president and founder of Newton Advisors, after examining the S&P’s technical charts. The major averages ended trading lower Tuesday as crude prices continued their unprecedented plunge and uncertainty prevailed in the broad market.

With the S&P ending the day down more than 3% at 2,736.56, it already broke below last week’s lows and erased “the entire uptrend from late March,” Newton told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday.

“It does appear like this rally that started on March 23 is really starting to lose steam,” Newton said. “My thinking is, over the next few days, we can start to pull back. I’m not certain that we have to necessarily retest the lows right away, but a lot of this does have to do with Treasury yields breaking down, very similar to what happened in mid-February and also in mid-January, which coincided with stocks also starting to turn lower.”

The “violent moves” in crude oil have also dinged the index, Newton said — and that’s not all he sees adding to the weakness.

“You want to keep a close eye on financials,” he said. “Last week did see a real drop-off in breadth. The momentum, a lot of that was financials-related as yields were pulling back. So, it’s going to be important to see some stabilization.”

Newton added that investors should also keep an eye on technology, which ended Tuesday as the S&P’s lowest-performing sector.

“If you have tech and financials both falling, that’s almost 40% of the market right there,” he said. “Near term, the real key area is going to be 2,637, which was the first high off that rebound in late March. If we can hold there, then, arguably, potentially, we can stabilize in the next three to five trading days. My thinking is sentiment has already been very very subdued, if anything, that a turn-down is going to cause sentiment to get bearish that much more quickly. So, it might actually be a chance to really look at buying dips in the near future. But today, specifically, is a negative and I do expect a bit more weakness based on what’s happening today.”

S&P 500 futures were at $2,764 on Wednesday, up 1% and U.S. crude futures were up 8%.   

Quint Tatro, president and founder of Joule Financial, warned in the same interview that investors should be careful when looking for places to hide out.

“It’s very, very concerning when investors look to go hiding in other investments because I think, ultimately, we’re in a bear market, and this is going to take all sectors and indices lower,” Tatro said. “The difficulty we’re having here is from a fundamental perspective. The market is still not cheap. It’s not of value. In fact, depending on how you calculate what earnings are going to do this year, the market’s more expensive than it was to begin 2020, which was a much higher price.”

That doesn’t bode particularly well for stocks with earnings and fundamentals still coming in weak, Tatro said.

“We are factoring in anywhere from a 15 to 20% drop in overall earnings per share for the year, which, if you look at a multiple of 20, puts us back at 2,231” on the S&P, he said. “If you take a historic multiple of 15, that takes us down to 1,673 on the S&P. So, I think we’ve got a long way to go.”


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/sp-500-faces-more-weakness-as-pressure-builds-chart-analyst-warns.html

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-22 21:28 | Report Abuse

thks, can have good nightmare tonight..

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-22 21:30 | Report Abuse

hei, i looking for KLSE nightmare story lah !

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-22 22:03 | Report Abuse

A financial crisis is underway, as demand collapse ripples through companies across the world

22 Apr 2020 06:04AM (Updated: 22 Apr 2020 06:10AM)

There is good reason to worry that the world economy is heading into a deep, protracted recession

ITHACA, New York: The world economy is on the precipice of its worst crisis since World War II.

As the newly updated Brookings-FT TIGER (Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery) makes clear, economic activity, financial markets, and private-sector confidence are all cratering. And if international cooperation remains at its current level, a far more severe collapse is yet to come.

To be sure, the current extraordinarily sharp downturn could prove to be relatively brief, with economic activity snapping back to previous levels once the COVID-19 contagion curve is flattened.

But there is good reason to worry that the world economy is heading into a deep, protracted recession. Much will depend on the pandemic’s trajectory and whether policymakers’ responses are sufficient to contain the damage while rebuilding consumer and business confidence.

Yet a rapid recovery seems highly unlikely. Demand has been ravaged, there have been extensive disruptions to manufacturing supply chains, and a financial crisis is already underway.

Unlike the crash from 2008 to 2009, which was triggered by liquidity shortages in financial markets, the COVID-19 crisis involves fundamental solvency issues for firms and industries well beyond the financial sector.

Moreover, the current shock is simultaneous and universal. During and immediately following the 2008 crisis, some emerging markets, not least China and India, continued to register strong growth, pulling the rest of the world economy along.

NO ECONOMY IMMUNE

But this time, no economy is immune, and no country will be able to lead an export-driven recovery. Today’s collapse has increased deflationary and financial risks in the advanced economies, and struck a significant blow to commodity exporters.

On top of it all, oil prices are plunging even more than they otherwise would, because Saudi Arabia and Russia are flooding the market.

The US economy has come to a virtual standstill, with most of the services sector shut down, industrial activity disrupted, and a red-hot labour market giving way to a tidal wave of unemployment in the space of just a few weeks.

The US has responded with extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, which will help mitigate the immediate fallout from the crisis. But further targeted stimulus will be needed to alleviate the longer-term damage, and especially to protect economically vulnerable households and small businesses.

As for Europe and Japan, which were experiencing economic stress even before the pandemic, both are likely to suffer substantial declines in output and increases in unemployment.

Robust social safety nets (relative to the United States) will mitigate the impact of the crisis on the most economically vulnerable, but the path to recovery will be long and difficult.

For its part, China’s economy seems to be partly kicking back into gear, despite the government’s restrained monetary and fiscal policy responses to date. Industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment contracted sharply in January and February, but the contraction seems to have bottomed out.

In some respects, China’s command economy is better positioned than market economies to withstand such massive shocks, because the state can marshal national resources beyond the limits of conventional macroeconomic tools and provide direct support to enterprises and banks.

But China’s economy is not out of the woods yet. With unemployment rising, domestic and external demand are likely to remain weak, and a second wave of infections will pose a persistent threat.

EMERGING ECONOMIES

Other emerging economies are heading into a particularly bleak period. Many have decrepit health-care systems, congested urban population centers, and high levels of poverty, leaving little room for manoeuver between controlling the pandemic and averting economic disaster.

Making matters worse, some of these countries must cope with capital-flow reversals, depreciating currencies, and plummeting export demand. Others face formidable debt loads that are becoming only more difficult to finance.

India’s government, which was already grappling with a sharp growth slowdown, has put the country on lockdown, but will continue to face a dual health and economic crisis.

The Brazilian government’s denial of the pandemic may sustain economic activity in the short run, but the country’s financial markets and currency have already tumbled, reflecting the likelihood of an eventual lockdown.


##https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/coronavirus-covid-19-global-recession-monetary-fiscal-policy-us-12652954

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-23 10:13 | Report Abuse

Lolllll........I want to big laugh.........

Definitely "Kosong" candlestick patterns........

Definitely catching a lot of retailers...............

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-23 10:21 | Report Abuse

Lolllll........I want to big laugh.........

Now more worse....anytime turn to negative.........

Definitely "Kosong" candlestick patterns........

Definitely catching a lot of retailers...............

Posted by KINGCOBRA3 > 2020-04-23 10:24 | Report Abuse

damn big U-turn...........really cash is king...can do wonders if u are damn loaded!

Posted by gglagg > 2020-04-23 10:25 | Report Abuse

yala take profit first gg coming

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-23 10:46 | Report Abuse

Tik tok...Tik tok......Count Down May'20 perfect storm coming......

Uplift IDSS...Parliament reopen...Ugly report card for individual company & economy data...........

More vulnerable & incredible oil price will repeat plunge again....

Posted by FoolsGold > 2020-04-23 10:51 | Report Abuse

Maybe the big players just want to relieve the pressure of past few days loads n lighten up, to move higher ?

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-23 15:56 | Report Abuse

Aiyo....Suddenly global market turning to negative territory.....

Today KLCI really dancing around........up 13++ point...then down back -3++ point ..... & up 10++ point.... then down again......now NEGATIVE....


Wah.....siapa beli future FMBKLCI contract sure untung a lot today....


up down...up down...Fantastics................

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-23 16:25 | Report Abuse

Rebound in oil is just a ‘breather’ and crude prices will likely turn negative again, analysts say (PUBLISHED THU, APR 23 20203:19 AM EDT)


~ “I’m not even calling this a rebound. I think oil prices are taking a breather,” Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, told CNBC.

~ Overnight, the June contract for WTI surged 19% as U.S. President Donald Trump ordered Iranian boats to be shot down if they “harass” American ships.

~ In the near term, unless production is cut, very limited capacity to store oil is likely to continue pressuring prices, analysts say.


Oil prices recovered from earlier losses overnight, but it might not be a rebound and could simply be markets taking a “breather,” analysts said, warning that crude prices could turn negative again.

That’s because the underlying issues with weak demand and storage running out have not been resolved, and will continue to put pressure on energy prices.

U.S. oil prices as well as international benchmark Brent crude have see-sawed this week. The May contract for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate dived deep into negative territory earlier this week, for the first time in its history, and traded at negative $37.63 per barrel. That meant producers had to pay traders to take the oil off their hands.

While the Brent tumbled overnight to its lowest since 1999, at $15.98, it did not enter into negative territory.

Overnight, however, the June contract for WTI surged 19% to settle at $13.78 per barrel. Analysts attributed that to tensions in the Persian Gulf as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to “shoot down and destroy” Iranian gunboats if they “harass” American ships.

“I’m not even calling this a rebound. I think oil prices are taking a breather,” Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, which provides analysis on global energy markets. WTI last traded at $15.66 per barrel on Thursday afternoon, a far cry from levels around $60 at the beginning of this year.

“As it happened, it’s not really managed to prop prices up too much,” she told CNBC on Thursday, referring to the U.S.-Iran tensions. “I think the geopolitical tensions element ... at this point to the markets is extremely small.”

Cont....

##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/rebound-in-oil-is-temporary-prices-will-turn-negative-again-analysts.html

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-23 20:35 | Report Abuse

MCO extended again until 12/05/20 (2 more weeks)...

So KLCI sure 100% pressure again....

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-24 08:14 | Report Abuse

Gilead Tumbles After Latest Data Leak on Virus Drug Trials

(April 24, 2020, 1:15 AM GMT+8 Updated on April 24, 2020, 4:36 AM GMT+8)

~Drugmaker and doctor involved dispute that trial was a failure

~ S&P 500 briefly gives up gains after report on China trial

Gilead Sciences Inc. shares were whipsawed for the second time in a week after a summary of a Chinese trial of its Covid-19 drug appeared to show that it was a failure.

The synopsis, which the company and a scientist working on the trial said didn’t fairly represent the actual results, saw Gilead’s shares closed down 4.3% to $77.78 on Thursday in New York. The broader market fell as well, with the S&P 500 ending down 0.05%.

The summary was quickly removed, but details of the post were reported by the Financial Times and posted by the publication Stat. They showed that the drug wasn’t associated with patients getting better more quickly; and 13.9% of patients getting the drug died, versus 12.8% getting standard care.

Gilead’s stock has been sent swinging by incremental reports on the drug, as investors grasp for any sign of data that the company’s compound could be an effective therapy for Covid-19 patients. The shares surged 9.7% on April 17 after a report that the drug appeared to have helped a group of Chicago patients who were part of a separate trial.

Gilead Response

The drug company and a scientist involved in the trial disputed the characterizations of the result as an outright failure, however.

“That is not correct,” said Frederick Hayden, an infectious disease expert at the University of Virginia School of Medicine, when asked whether the results showed remdesivir had flopped. Hayden helped the Chinese doctors conduct the study. “My interpretation of them is not consistent with that headline.”

Gilead, in a statement, said that the summary mischaracterizes the results of the study, which was stopped early after not enough patients could be found. A study with low enrollment can lead to results that are less conclusive. Hayden said there was a mistake in the original manuscript and that it had since been revised.

He said that the study was under review at a journal, which he would not identify. He declined further comment until the study was published.

Gilead, in its statement, said that “trends in the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly among patients treated early.” The company said that the full data are being submitted for review and publication. In a follow-up statement, the company said the data “add to a growing but still inconclusive body of evidence for remdesivir.” It expects full results from two other, larger studies at the end of May.

Cont...

##https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/gilead-plunges-after-report-that-chinese-trial-was-unsuccessful?srnd=premium-asia

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-04-24 08:21 | Report Abuse

My KPS went up 50% while mkt crash the end of the world is coming

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-24 08:27 | Report Abuse

An unemployment rate of 23%? The real jobless picture is coming together

(PUBLISHED THU, APR 23 20203:31 PM EDTUPDATED MOMENTS AGO)

~ Jobless claims over the past five weeks have totaled more than 26 million, far worse than anything the U.S. has seen.

~ One measure, comparing those getting benefits to the total labor force, shows an 11% “insured employment rate.” That, in turn, points to a 23% overall jobless rate, according to one economist.

~ Expectations for the April unemployment rate are in the 10% to 15% range.


As the economic shutdown associated with coronavirus prevention measures nears the completion of its first full calendar month, a clearer picture is emerging of just how hard the hit has been to U.S. workers.

An economy that had been near full employment just two months ago is now in its most dire straits since the Great Depression. New filings for weekly jobless claims, reported Thursday, added to the gloom with another 4.4 million applying for unemployment insurance.

That brought the five-week total to more than 26 million. While bad enough on its own, it helped to complete a picture that likely will show the U.S. with its highest unemployment rate in about 87 years.

How high that number will get is still unclear when the Labor Department reports the April nonfarm payrolls data in two weeks.

However, the current numbers look bad. The amount of people getting benefits compared with the total size of the labor force, a measure the government calls the “insured unemployment rate,” is at 11%, the Labor Department said.

Rolling in the rest of the jobless pushes the headline unemployment rate that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports to a “barely believable” 23%, said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Over the worst

Most economists, though, think the actual reading likely will be closer to 10% to 15% due to the vagaries of how the BLS computes the rate. Ashworth himself sees the level at the high end of that range, though he said it may not be quite as bad as it looks on the surface.

“A surge in the unemployment rate to more than 15% would invite comparisons with the Great Depression, but we think those are misplaced because many of the unemployed will return to paid employment when the lockdowns are lifted,” Ashworth said in a note. “Nearly all of the increase in unemployment in March was due to temporary layoffs rather than permanent job losses.”

Ashworth expects the unemployment rate to come down quickly once the economy restarts — perhaps falling to 10% by summer and below 7% by the end of the year.

Federal Reserve economists released a study a week ago that has grabbed some attention on Wall Street. The central bank, studying weekly payroll data from processing firm ADP, indeed found that of the 18 million or so jobs lost in the first weeks of the lockdown were largely temporary layoffs.

Those separations, though, were more than double the 8.8 million jobs during the entire Great Recession, the Fed found.

That total is important as it will provide a fuller picture of the jobs situation than was apparent from the March report earlier this month. That count showed a decline of 701,000 but did not represent the full damage because the sampling happened before the worst of the job losses. The Fed estimated that 13 million more jobs were lost in the last two weeks of the month, after the period the BLS used for its estimate.

Rolling together all the data since the sample week for the March jobs report shows about 25 million people newly unemployed, which would indicate a jobless rate of about 20%, said Citigroup economist Veronica Clark. However, she also thinks the actual number will be lower in part because a number of those filing for benefits while waiting to go back to work will not be counted in the unemployment rate.

At the same time, she said the worst of the unemployment news may be behind us.

“While still at a very elevated level, it is a positive sign that initial filings for unemployment benefits appear to have passed their peak following the initial wave of job losses in late-March/early-April,” Clark wrote. “We expect initial claims to continue to decline over the coming weeks, reflecting resolutions of capacity issues at state offices, as people who were not previously able to file a claim given the volume are now able to get through.”


##https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/an-unemployment-rate-of-23percent-the-real-jobless-picture-is-coming-together.html

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-24 09:25 | Report Abuse

Within expectation after announcement of MCO extension......

DJIA future now drop 200++ pt after virus drug trial unsuccessful....



Posted by Keyman188 > Apr 23, 2020 8:35 PM | Report Abuse X

MCO extended again until 12/05/20 (2 more weeks)...

So KLCI sure 100% pressure again....

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-24 12:02 | Report Abuse

MCO extension to result in GDP shrinking by 6% — HLIB Research

(theedgemarkets.com April 24, 2020 10:31 am +08)

KUALA LUMPUR (April 24): Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) is forecasting an even greater contraction in Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) of 6%, from a 4% contraction previously forecast, following the government’s announcement that the Movement Control Order (MCO) will be continued for another two weeks.

In a note today, the research house said that this higher contraction in GDP is premised on the assumption that the economy is operating at a capacity of 50% of GDP — with only 45% of the economy vis-à-vis GDP operating in the second phase of the MCO.

“As the economy is now under MCO for a total of eight weeks (slightly below two months), concerns are rife on the impact to the economy and employment. While the latest Ministry of Finance [MoF] report on the utilisation of the wage subsidy bill (RM13.8 billion) showed that RM1.2 billion of funds have already been approved for almost 1 million workers, this is subjected to conditions and is only for three months,” said the research house.

HLIB Research noted that it continues to see further downside risks to its GDP forecast from the possibility of the MCO being extended further, and the likelihood of a sluggish recovery post-MCO due to social distancing measures and a weak global economic environment.

At the same time, it is also expecting Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to conduct a 50 basis point (50bps) cut in the overnight policy rate (OPR), a move that could come as early as the upcoming May 5 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

As far as the FBM KLCI is concerned, the reprieve over the past one month will be short-lived, as past bear markets have all seen a “dead cat bounce” ranging from 10% to 13%.

The research house continues to forecast a W-shaped recovery trajectory for the market and its bottom estimates for the KLCI ranges from 1,029 points to 1,236 points — adding that it would only turn buyers closer to those levels.

“Possible triggers to those levels include (i) another MCO extension beyond Phase 4, (ii) May reporting season with weaker-than-expected corporate results and 1Q20 GDP (versus BNM’s 2020 range of -2.0% to +0.5%), (iii) continued decline in oil prices, and (iv) a perhaps overlooked risk of the US-China trade war re-escalation, noting the barrage of less-than-cordial statements by President [Donald] Trump on China,” it noted.

It is still maintaining its FBM KLCI forecast of 1,350 points for 2020.

Earnings of KLCI component stocks are expected to contract by 3.9% this year but are to rebound by 7.7% in 2021.

HLIB Research said its forecasts mostly imputed a six-week MCO impact, and yesterday’s extension certainly presents a further downside to its estimates.

Most sectors will be facing negative headwinds, for example, the aviation industry faces travel bans and the consumer sector will see weak demand for discretionary spending.

That said, HLIB Research viewed the MCO’s extension as necessary to combat the disease.

“Collectively, the four MCO phases would total 55 days or slightly below two months. We maintain our view that Malaysia’s Covid-19 situation will possibly subside to containable levels sometime in May (1st -2nd week), which coincides with the end of MCO Phase 4,” it viewed.


##https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mco-extension-result-gdp-shrinking-6-%E2%80%94-hlib-research

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-24 16:53 | Report Abuse

Aiyo...So ugly closing for KLCI today....

Today already broke unfavourable indicator......

1000% confirm next week KLCI unavoidable heading to HOLLAND .......

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-27 08:53 | Report Abuse

Tik...Tok...Tik...Tok...Count down for uplifting IDSS......

Another 4 more days to come.....History can't changed but History can repeat................

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-27 10:10 | Report Abuse

KLCI struggling to push up but seem not successful....

This week is doubt & tough trading week....

Geopolitical tension due to North Korea Premier Leader situation...

Uplifting IDSS at Bursa market soon......

Report card season around the corner......

Unprecedented oil crisis impact for oil exporter like Malaysia......

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-27 10:57 | Report Abuse

Foreign selling surged to RM1.13 billion last week; YTD outflow RM10.21b, says MIDF Research

(theedgemarkets.com April 27, 2020 09:40 am +08)

KUALA LUMPUR (April 27): Foreign selling of local equity on Bursa Malaysia surged to RM1.13 billion last week from RM638.6 million the prior week, according to MIDF Research.

In his weekly Fund Flow report today, MIDF Research’s Adam M Rahim said this figure was the highest in five weeks.

“In comparison to its other six Asian peers that we monitor, Malaysia remains as the nation with the third smallest foreign net outflow on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.

“The YTD foreign outflow from Malaysia came to RM10.21 billion,” he said.

Adam said Bursa started the week on a sombre note as foreign investors pulled out RM215.4 million net of local equities.

He said this was despite news that China slashed its benchmark lending rate for the second time this year to boost the nation’s economy.

“Foreign net selling activity intensified on Tuesday, reaching RM287.9 million, a level not seen in more than a month.

“Risk-off sentiment grew following the crash in U.S oil prices overnight,” he said.

Adam said this was in conformity with other Asian markets under MIDF Research’s coverage namely, South Korea, Taiwan, India and Thailand.

“Wednesday then saw a slight slowdown in foreign net outflow to a tune of RM186.6 million as interest in rubber glove manufacturer stocks helped outweighed the overall selling activity amongst off shore investors.

“Consequently the Bursa Malaysia Healthcare index added 31.8 points on the same day,” he said.

Adam said the momentum of foreign net selling was little changed at RM198.0 million on Thursday.

“The anticipation on U.S law makers moving closer to vote for the US$484 billion bill for small businesses and hospitals helped put a lid on foreign net outflows.

“Foreign net outflow then jumped to RM240.6 million on Friday amidst reports that Gilead Sciences Inc.’s potential antiviral drug for the Covid-19 had failed in its fi rst randomized clinical trial,” he said.

Adam said in terms of participation, foreign investors saw an 8.0% weekly increase in its average daily traded value (ADTV), the smallest amongst other investor groups. Nevertheless, the absolute ADTV of foreign investors remained healthy above the RM1 billion mark.


##https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/foreign-selling-surged-rm113-billion-last-week-ytd-outflow-rm1021b-says-midf-research

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-27 17:05 | Report Abuse

Lolll....Kesian KLCI today......Kosong "candlestick patterns" again...

Geopolitical tension due to North Korea Premier Leader situation...

Uplifting IDSS at Bursa market soon......

Report card season around the corner......

Unprecedented oil crisis impact for oil exporter like Malaysia......

MCO 4th stage extended......40% of SME unprecedented huge impacted...

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-04-28 10:04 | Report Abuse

More selling pressure again.....kosong "candlestick patterns" again...

Count down for uplifting IDSS......Another 3 more days to come.....

Oil price plunges again by 25%.......

Geopolitical tension due to North Korea Premier Leader situation...

Report card season around the corner........

Unprecedented oil crisis impact for oil exporter like Malaysia......