Masterskill Education Group Bhd
(Nov 21, RM1.16)
Maintain fully valued at RM1.20 with revised target price of 70 sen (from RM1.20): Masterskill's 3QFY11 net profit plunged 78.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 52.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to RM5.5 million. This brings 9MFY11 net profit to RM39.7 million or 52.5% of our initial full-year estimate, way below expectation. Revenue for 3QFY11shrank to RM61.2 million (-24.1% y-o-y, -7% q-o-q) on the back of weak new student intake (1,800 year-to-date, below the circa 3,000 students that graduated in September 2011). This, coupled with rising overhead costs (attributable to teaching staff, depreciation and other administration costs), dragged down operating margin to 15.9% (3QFY10: 40.7%, 2QFY11: 15.4%).

Masterskill has been struggling to draw in more new students due to: (i) a more competitive health science education landscape; (ii) a shift in industry trend whereby fewer students are pursuing diploma courses in private education institutions; (iii) lower National Higher Education Fund (PTPTN) funding limit; and (iv) higher minimum entry requirement for nursing programmes.

Following the disappointing 3QFY11, we have cut FY11F to FY13F earnings by 38% to 43% as we factor in lower new student intakes of 2,100 (from 4,000) in FY11F and 4,500 (from 5,100) in FY12F (when there could be a higher number of new students for its degree programmes and new courses as Masterskill embarks on fresh initiatives to diversify its income profile).

We have also trimmed our dividend payout assumption to 40% (from 50%), which translates to dividend per share of 4.4 sen (of which 4.2 sen has just been declared) or a prospective 3.7% net yield for FY11F. Masterskill may want to conserve cash for its capital expenditure requirements amid a weak earnings outlook. Maintain 'fully valued' with a revised target price of 70 sen (from RM1.20) based on nine times FY12F earnings per share with support from its existing net cash balance of RM121.6 million, or 30 sen per share. ' HwangDBS Vickers Research, Nov 21


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 22, 2011.