JCY INTERNATIONAL BERHAD
KLSE (MYR): JCY (5161)
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Last Price
0.64
Today's Change
+0.025 (4.07%)
Day's Change
0.59 - 0.645
Trading Volume
52,131,800
Changes
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Discussions
61 people like this. Showing 50 of 16,747 comments
Here is my research and finding of how to estimate its potential share price rise for JCY business revenue & earning growth throughout year end 2024 & beyond with raising AI cloud & data center.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/jcy2024/2024-06-07-story-h-159822508-JCY_How_high_JCY_share_price_can_go_by_end_2H_24
7 hours ago
Iris will be the next Notion. Iris will go back to RM1.5 this year.
Iris and FPHB will be next multibagger stock. Don't miss.
7 hours ago
iris = risky
jcy
J = Jumping
C = Clapping
Y = Yelling
hold Jcy till end 2024 to see it
crossed 70 sen
cross 85 sen
cross Rm1.00
6 hours ago
if want to take profit then
go buy Tsh Resources
see
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/MYX-FCPO1!/
Happy morning all
Fcpo rebounded above Rm4000
plus 2nd half year Ffb production will increase more and more
and Palm oil stocks oversold
so now is the best time to buy palm oil shares
6 hours ago
If the share prices of Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate Technology (STX) on Nasdaq is doing well, there is no reason to think that share prices of JCY International (JCY) should do any lesser. The logic, simply because JCY's business well-being is highly corelated to its customers WDC and STX since they co-exist within the same value chain.
JCY being the up stream component manufacturer & part assembler whilst WDC and STX being the brand owner and downstream seller of the finished product (HDD & SSD). As much as WDC and STX are both very important customer of JCY, likewise JCY is an important component supplier to its customers. No-one should discount this business link.
JCY.KL (JCY International) +310.0% (low base rock bottom effect). Isn't This The Beginning Of Recovery Or Share Price Too Aggressive In A Short Time? JCY IPO Price was set at RM1.60 at a Market Cap of RM3.1bn when it was listed back in February 2010.
On a YTD basis, JCY has surged more than 3X from a low of RM0.15 (a year ago) on the back of big improvement in its last quarter results. So the question is will JCY continue to outperform its customers and how?
My 2 Cents. Yes. JCY Will Continue to Outperform And This Is Only The Beginning .
How?
Second half of 2024 results are expected to be better than First Half as confidently guided by management in their result review and commentary in May.
Operational Leverage and Economies of Scale for JCY is Much Greater Than its Customers'. At slightly below 50% plant utilization rate, JCY is already clocked in RM5.34mn in net profit. Ask any production manager or factory owners that manufactures goods how important is it to get pass breakeven utilization rate. When utilization rate surpass breakeven level, profits can flow in exponentially with every improvement in utilization rate (also known as economies of scale).
6 hours ago
funny🤣, I had a dream😁, early morning🌄
a short very very short one, before falling back into a longer slumber
it was a number, yep just a number, it was 72
5 hours ago
well, tbch😂, it might have been a bit more delightful❤️🩹 if it had been 69, and also had kayley gunner, aj applegate, josephine jackson and/or jenna starr in it
but I don't mind, 72 is still fine
4 hours ago
If JCY sales order rise higher than expected toward 80% factory utilization earlier, then its next EPS reporting will hit >=5sen vs early estimation, riding along with Western Digital & Seagate upraising sales order HDD, SDD demand in 2H'24.
Any pullback in an opportunity to collect for next 6mth to 1yr for multi baggar return to $2.00 share price with moving positive economy trend on data center demand HDD, SDD growth.
4 hours ago
Jonathantyp:
"Sorry I am going to sell all."
okay👍 dude😎, then maybe you could go on try out VincentTang's favourite darling iris on our behalf
it sounds kind of a bit intriguing to me, but I don't dare to take the plunge in there just yet
4 hours ago
We are still at early stage of HDD bull run
though Jcy has gone up to 61.5 sen now
it's historic peak was almost Rm2.00
and now it has seen a strong turnaround demand
1. AI and DC demand still ahead as many DC centers are still in the process of setting up and needing more HDD and SSD
4 hours ago
2. Jcy has given guidance ahead
with only 50% operation it's profits have surged due to higher value sales
4 hours ago
3. If just 50% operation already garnered so good profits what will be it's profits if Jcy ramp up production to 70% or 80%?
4 hours ago
4. Plus Seagate and Western Digital both gave indication that HDD and SSD prices will go up by 10% or more
4 hours ago
5. Above and overall the bullish signal
Jcy said 2nd half of 2024 will see better sales and profits than 1st half
so we will hold to "SEE"
AUG 2024
NOV 2024
FEB 2025 (results for Oct to Dec 2024)
Let's keep strong and how on till all the next 3 Qtrs results
Jcy projection true or now we will know by then
4 hours ago
Dear kkwong13,
Do you think the PAT=235.18 million is real ?
Please enlighten me.
Thank you.
--------------------------
Based on your calculation.
Q2 2024
NOSI=2.140 Billion
EPS = 0.25 Sen
PAT = 2140*0.0025=5.35 million
Q3 2024
NOSI=2.140 Billion
EPS = 1.97 Sen
PAT = 2140*0.0197=42.16 million
Q4 2024
EPS = 3.51 sen
PAT = 2140*0.0351=75.11 million
Q1 2025
EPS = 5.26 sen
PAT = 2140*0.0526=112.56 million
Total PAT in 4 rolling quarters =235.18 million
Total EPS = 0.1099
2 hours ago
Dear NickelLee,
I also like to listen to your comment on my above posting.
Thank you.
2 hours ago
HI GUYS
Long ago in 1997/8 Bull run
One guy from Reko, Kajang made Rm300,000 from Share market trading
RM300K was big money in those days
After having made Rm300K (or Rm1 to Rm3 million in today's money) he decided to cash out and bought a piece of land in Jalan Reko, Kajang to lock into REAL ASSET VALUE (LANDS!!!)
Then Asian Financial Crisis Hit
Many went bankrupted
This guy built a Shop on his land to sell Electrical Stuff
He did very well
NOW IF YOU WANT TO PRESERVE YOUR PROFITS
CAN CONSIDER BUYING AND HOLDING TSH RESOURCES (9059)
Final decision is yours
TSH RESOURCES (9059) PRIME GOLDMINE LANDS SELLING AT LESS THAN RUBBISH PRICES (NOW I KNOW WHY WARREN BUFFET SAID, "I KNOW I WILL BE RICH"!!
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2024-06-07-story-h-159794673-TSH_RESOURCES_9059_PRIME_GOLDMINE_LANDS_SELLING_AT_LESS_THAN_RUBBISH_PR
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-03-13-story-h1484835012-THE_ASIAN_FINANCIAL_CRISIS_1997_1998_Why_It_Hit_Johor_Hardest_BECAUSE_O
1 hour ago
Hi OTB, thanks for the kind interest to know how JCY can able to reach EPS 5sen.
Here is my compute calculation.
Refer to latest JCY's (Mar'24) quarter result, it stated revenue increased 16% QoQ, with just improved of 3% increase in quantity shipped, mainly due to 22% QoQ rise in higher storage capacity, resultant in better product mix cost margin under 50% factory utilization. This represent a very positive trend toward subsequent quarters ahead whereby majority of its products mix ship with better product margin to meet uprising Western Digital & Seagate sales order demand especially for cloud enterprise & data center .
In term of its revenue forecast projection, how can it able to hit EPS >=5sen if JCY's factory utilization reach 80% upon raising customer order demand + JCY's management team execution & delivery is calculate as below:
Reference point:
Baseline: Q2'FY24 revenue reported RM147mil, an increase of RM21mil (vs RM126mil Q1'FY24) with just 3% increase in quantity shipped for larger capacity storage product, result in earning profit of RM5.2mil which represent 0.25sen/share under 50% factory utilization.
Condition#1: if 10% QoQ quantity sales order increase for cloud, enterprise larger storage capacity with better product margin, reach JCY's 10% factory utilization to 60% OEE utilization
Then, revenue will raise from RM147mil to ~RM210mil
[increase 10% QoQ qty sales order = 3x fold revenue increase with RM21mil x3 = RM63mil], as a result of shifted of their product mix and ASP selling price increase.
Then after minus fixed RM140mil operation cost + others progressive expenses + tax deduction, it net profit should be ~RM45mil earnings, convert into EPS approximately ~1.97sen
[Reference to revenue 3% QoQ improve to RM147mil; RM21mil increase from Q1'FY24 RM126mil]
Condition#2: if raise up to 20% quantity sales order for cloud, enterprise larger storage capacity + better product margin, reach JCY's 20% factory utilization to 70% OEE utilization
Then, revenue raise from RM126mil to ~RM252mil [increase 20% QoQ qty sales order = 6x fold revenue increase with RM21mil x6 = RM126mil], as a result of shifted of their product mix and ASP selling price increase.
Then after minus fixed RM140mil operation cost + others progressive factory expenses, it profit before tax = ~RM112mil
Then after tax reduction, it net profit it ~RM82mil earnings, convert into EPS approximately 3.51 to 3.87 sen (+/- 10% variance, pick lower, conservatively)
Condition#3: if raise up to 30% quantity sales order for cloud, enterprise larger storage capacity + better product margin, reach JCY's 30% factory utilization to 80% OEE utilization
Then, revenue raise from RM126mil to ~RM315mil [increase 30% QoQ qty sales order = 9x fold revenue increase with RM21mil x9 = RM189mil], as a result of shifted of their product mix and ASP selling price increase.
Then after minus fixed RM140mil operation cost + others progressive factory expenses, it profit before tax = ~RM175mil
Then after tax reduction, it net profit it ~RM129mil earnings, convert into EPS approximately 5.26 to 6.08 sen (+/- 10% variance, pick lower, conservatively)
Hope this calculation able to give future guidance on overall JCY business revenue growth for next 6mths to 1years projection as long as AI cloud & more data center sales order demand growth + JCY's teams factory execution delivery to hit 80% OEE utilization.
1 hour ago
The 66 sen resistance which cause yesterday (6.6.2024) down fall has to be overcome first.
49 minutes ago
Here is the link for better view. Thanks
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/JCYdoubleup/2024-06-07-story-h-159793684-JCY_Potential_JCY_revenue_can_double_up_to_RM315mil_by_next_3Qtrs_resul
42 minutes ago
There are too many variable and moving parts in the calculation. I don't do that and there is no need to quantify all the numbers to get the share price up. As long as, production crosses breakeven and economies of scale kicks in, unless you have access to management, your guess is as good as mine.
Technically, I don't forecast company profits, i only forecast share price momentum. Old hands should understand what i am talking about.
23 minutes ago
I understand, this all calculation is purely based on fundamental calculation of its potential revenue & earnings profit, really depend on macro economic trend & investors/traders sentiment. It does give us a good indicator & estimation of how far JCY revenue & earning can raise as long as big economic sector trend of AI cloud & data center sales order demand is growing. Most importantly, JCY's management & factory team able to execute and deliver to hit 80% OEE KPI utilization too for next multi-baggar return.
16 minutes ago
I think Mr Ooi Teik Bee might prepare the paper work on JCY and he might whatsapps to his subscribers next Monday. Those subscribers who still have extra money (after putting money in their existing portfolios already) might follow his buy call the Monday (10.06.2024).
5 minutes ago
last minute volume coming in !! .. at least closed today at 0.640 or 0.645 !
5 minutes ago
KKWong13, thanks for the detailed calculation. Really appreciate the amount of hardwork put in. 🙏.... actually i was just sharing my investment style 😁
5 minutes ago
We the individual investors community need detailed calculation to navigate around. We don't have the luxury of big fund managers' resources.
Mr. OTB is an institution by himself.
3 minutes ago
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