JCY: Potential JCY revenue can double up to RM315mil by next 3Qtrs result, end Dec'2024

Here is my compute calculation.

Refer to latest JCY's (Mar'24) quarter result, it stated revenue increased 16% QoQ, with just improved of 3% increase in quantity shipped, mainly due to 22% QoQ rise in higher storage capacity, resultant in better product mix cost margin under 50% factory utilization. This represent a very positive trend toward subsequent quarters ahead whereby majority of its products mix ship with better product margin to meet uprising Western Digital & Seagate sales order demand especially for cloud enterprise & data center.

In term of its revenue forecast projection, how can it able to hit EPS >=5sen if JCY's factory utilization reach 80% upon raising customer order demand + JCY's management team execution & delivery is calculate as below:

Reference point:

Baseline: Q2'FY24 revenue reported RM147mil, an increase of RM21mil (vs RM126mil Q1'FY24) with just 3% increase in quantity shipped for larger capacity storage product, result in earning profit of RM5.2mil which represent 0.25sen/share under 50% factory utilization.

Condition#1: if 10% QoQ quantity sales order increase for cloud, enterprise larger storage capacity with better product margin, reach JCY's 10% factory utilization to 60% OEE utilization

Then, revenue will raise from RM147mil to ~RM210mil

[increase 10% QoQ qty sales order = 3x fold revenue increase with RM21mil x3 = RM63mil], as a result of shifted of their product mix and ASP selling price increase.

Then after minus fixed RM140mil operation cost + others progressive expenses + tax deduction, it net profit should be ~RM45mil earnings, convert into EPS approximately ~1.97sen

[Reference to revenue 3% QoQ improve to RM147mil; RM21mil increase from Q1'FY24 RM126mil]

Condition#2: if raise up to 20% quantity sales order for cloud, enterprise larger storage capacity + better product margin, reach JCY's 20% factory utilization to 70% OEE utilization

Then, revenue raise from RM126mil to ~RM252mil [increase 20% QoQ qty sales order = 6x fold revenue increase with RM21mil x6 = RM126mil], as a result of shifted of their product mix and ASP selling price increase.

Then after minus fixed RM140mil operation cost + others progressive factory expenses, it profit before tax = ~RM112mil

Then after tax reduction, it net profit it ~RM82mil earnings, convert into EPS approximately 3.51 to 3.87 sen (+/- 10% variance, pick lower, conservatively)

Condition#3: if raise up to 30% quantity sales order for cloud, enterprise larger storage capacity + better product margin, reach JCY's 30% factory utilization to 80% OEE utilization

Then, revenue raise from RM126mil to ~RM315mil [increase 30% QoQ qty sales order = 9x fold revenue increase with RM21mil x9 = RM189mil], as a result of shifted of their product mix and ASP selling price increase.

Then after minus fixed RM140mil operation cost + others progressive factory expenses, it profit before tax = ~RM175mil

Then after tax reduction, it net profit it ~RM129mil earnings, convert into EPS approximately 5.26 to 6.08 sen (+/- 10% variance, pick lower, conservatively)

Hope this calculation able to give future guidance on overall JCY business revenue growth for next 6mths to 1year projection, important as long as AI cloud & more data center sales order demand growth + JCY's management teams execution & delivery to hit 80% OEE factory utilization.