Personal opinions today:

This week's the market has four major focuses, including the Bank of Canada monetary decisions on Wednesday night and the EU Central Bank monetary policy announcement on Thursday night. More importantly, it is believed that the US Beige Book was released at 2 am on Thursday. The initial value of the third quarter GDP in the US was announced on Friday as very important as well. As the market keeps an eye on the development and trends of the US economy, the Beige Book content, including the employment, wages, production and inflation prices of the US states, is an inspiration for the Fed's monetary policy. The report also affects the expected third-quarter GDP rate forecast for the US on Friday and the US employment data performance forecast for next week.

The important data in the market today is Canada's August wholesale sales, the National Economic Confidence Index and the US Federal Reserve's National Activity Index for the Chicago Fed in September. These data are not key data, but can be used as a slight change in the short-term trend of the relevant national currency.  Tomorrow, the German and UK data may be a higher reference for market-driven changes. The market expects that Germany's September PPI will fall slightly in the afternoon, which is relatively negative for the euro. And Italy will resubmit the budget to the EU for approval tomorrow, It will believe that the euro has downward.

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD

1.1515/1.1530 resistance

1.1480/1.1465 support

The European Central Bank announced the results of the interest rate decision on Thursday night. Whether the monetary policy announced the central bank’s statement last month, reducing the bond purchases to 15 billion euros from October to December, and said that the rate hike will begin in the summer of next year. The market is watching and supporting the euro. . However, short-term factors are also worthy of attention. Tomorrow afternoon, the German PPI will be released in September, and the market is expected to fall slightly, which is negative for the euro. And Italy will resubmit the budget to the EU for approval tomorrow, It maybe believe that the euro is still downward. Technical support levels are 1.1480 and 1.1465. The resistance levels are 1.1515 and 1.1530 respectively.

GBPUSD

1.3030/1.3010 support

1.3090/1.3110 resistance

The UK unilaterally said it will continue to negotiate with the EU. A glimmer of light, support for the pound has rebounded. However, the negotiations continue, full of variables, and the exchange rate of the pound is expected to remain volatile. If there is no negative news. Technically, for the time being, we will pay attention to the support of GBPUSD as 1.3030 and 1.3010, and the resistance above as 1.3090 and 1.3110. Since the negotiation time will take time, there will be a US Beige Book report coming in the week. It is estimated that the US dollar will be affected by the US dollar and the high level will have resistance.

USDCHF

0.9980/0.9995 resistance

0.9950/0.9935 support

No important data released in Switzerland, and the Swiss franc can refer to the euro. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is at a high level in early August. 09980 is one of the resistance levels. If the breakthrough is successful, the first reference resistance is 1.0030. But if the euro is strong, the dollar can support the 0.9950 and 0.9935 for the Swiss franc.

USD/JPY

112.70/112.85 resistance

112.20/112.00 support

Japan’s Nikkei index has reversed, while the Nikkei and the US dollar have been similar. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend changes There is also a US Beige Book report in the week, which is estimated to be affected by the US dollar between the yen and is currently supported at an estimated 112.00.

AUDUSD

0.7115/0.7130 resistance

0.7085/0.7070 support

US existing home sales fell in September, and the annualized monthly rate fell sharply. The Australian dollar reached support. But remember that last Friday, China announced that its third-quarter GDP fell from the previous quarter. It is believed that the Australian exports will eventually affect the Australian exports. Technically, you can refer to the fluctuations from the low level in early October to the high level in mid-October. Among them, you also can use the Fibonacci to find support for 0.7085 and 0.7070. If it fall, AUDUSD can seeks the support.

NZDUSD

0.6590/0.6600 resistance

0.6560/0.6550 support

The Fed's monetary policy maintained a gradual rate hike, and the market looked at the US Beige Book report, estimating short-term negative for NZD. In addition, there is no important data released in New Zealand in the short term, and the trend will continue to follow the step of the AUDUSD. The Australian dollar fell against the dollar, and it is estimated that the New Zealand dollar may follow the dollar.

USD/CAD

1.3130/1.3155 resistance

1.3085/1.3060 support

US crude oil supply increased, while the market worried that the US economy slowed in the third quarter, oil prices fell, and the negative Canadian dollar. On Wednesday night, the market forecast the Bank of Canada raised interest rates and the market is paying attention. It is expected that the US dollar will have an opportunity to adjust against the Canadian dollar in the short term.

EUR/GBP

0.8810/0.8825 resistance

0.8785/0.8760 support

The EU and the British government said that the Brexit agreement still needs time to discuss, now may bearish the pound, the euro against the pound continues to move upward. And the UK data disappointed the market, and the bearish pound is also one of the reasons for the rise of the euro against the pound. If the fundamentals have not changed, it is estimated that the trend will continue to rise.

EURCHF

1.1475/1.1490 resistance

1.1435/1.1420 support

From the beginning of October to the recent days, technically, the euro against the Swiss franc appeared two times 1.1490, the initial double-top formation, worthy of attention. If the adjustment form is developed, the neckline is 1.1365, which can be used as a reference.

XAUUSD

1230/1232 resistance

1224/1222 support

The minutes of the Fed meeting, officials unanimously support the pace of gradual rate hikes, gold that is sensitive to interest rate movements has therefore fallen. However, the interest rate hike is expected to cause investors to worry about the economic recession, funds out of the stock market, and the gold temporarily become a hedging tool. In addition, the US Dow has repeated its trend. If the Dow rises sharply, the price of gold will likely fall. Short-term the gold price movements may range up and down, but breaking through either side may reverse the trend.

US crude oil futures:

69.95/70.35 resistance

68.80/68.30 support

The Fed’s comments made bearish the oil prices. The oil price continued to fall below $70, hitting 73.6% of the adjustment wave, and saw support of $68.5 after $69.45. The market continued to ferment the Fed’s interest rate hike and economic recession outlook, worried about the oversupply of crude oil and the decline in oil prices. At present, there is no other news that can boost the price of oil. If the resistance of 70 dollars is not broken, the outlook for oil prices will be supported by 68.30 dollars.

BTCUSD:

6680 / 6750 resistance

6280 /6060 support

After the FOMC prediction, interest rate hike. The US Beige Book report, estimating short-term negative bitcoin.As expectation before, 6750 is a important resistance. Since the break through resistance point fails, the price go down. Now it may test 6280 or 6060 support.

Hope you enjoy and have happy trade!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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