Personal opinions today

 

A new round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultation meeting will be held in Beijing. Before the Sino-US trade ceases, this meeting will continue to discuss the Sino-US trade agreement and very important. If the relationship between the two sides is further improved and it is expected to reach an agreement and avoid the US government's import tariffs on goods imported from China next month, the global economy will bring excitement. The China renminbi, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar will have a chance to reverse the downtrend. It also expected to increase the demand for crude oil, and the price of crude oil will rise further, which will indirectly increase the Canadian dollar. Of course, the stock market is rising that will be bearish for gold. In the next three days, the speeches, the details of the negotiations, the results and the next arrangement are expected to continue to affect the global economic outlook, global stock market, foreign exchange and commodity markets. We will not underestimate and carefully looking at the market fluctuations.

 

Yesterday, the analysis pointed out that the British government intends to solve the Brexit problem and avoid the British economy in trouble. Since it is only speech and informally expressed the program, it is estimated that the stimulus is limited in magnitude. The market focus is concerned with the performance of UK inflation data. The UK's inflation data was weak, which dragged down the overall European currency.

 

Today China has announced a number of important economic data, of which trade accounts is more important. In the evening of Beijing time, the Eurozone announced its fourth quarter GDP. In the evening, the US announced retail sales, initial joblessness and production price index. It is estimated that the US economic data continues to lead the world, with a bullish dollar. Please pay attention to the relevant data performance, assess the trend of major currencies and commodities, and even the development of the stock market.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1285/1.1305 resistance

1.1235/1.1215 support

The important economy of the Eurozone has been weak, and the trend of the Euro has followed the pace of the pound. Yesterday, the euro continued to follow the step of the British pound, causing the UK inflation data was weaker than expected, and also the US inflation data performed better and the euro fell. Today afternoon, the euro zone announced the fourth quarter GDP performance and US data performance at night. Technically, the euro fell below 1.1305 and 1.1285 respectively, these numbers now become a reference resistance. We will wait for 1.1235 and 1.1215 support.

 

GBPUSD

1.2880/1.2905 resistance

1.2835/1.2805 support

The market questioned the effectiveness of the British Prime Minister’s remarks, and finally the pound failed to rise to the level of 1.29. Technically, if the pound against the US dollar 1.2910 or 1.2935 resistance still fails to break, coupled with the impact of European bad economic data, it is estimated that the pound against the US dollar has the opportunity to test the 1.2835 support level, the opportunity exists.

 

USDCHF 

1.0090/1.0120 resistance

1.0045/1.0015 support

USD strong, major European currencies have generally fallen, while the Swiss franc has been negative. In addition, the US inflation data has satisfied the market, which is positive for the US dollar and indirectly affects the decline of the Swiss franc. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is expected to eventually consolidate within the resistance range of 1.0090 or 1.0120 and adjust to the following technical support.

 

USD/JPY

111.25/111.40 resistance

110.75/110.55 support

At present, the US political and economic performance is better than that of European countries, and the US dollar interest rate still looking forward to rising. In addition, the US Dow rose and the safe-haven funds flowed out of the yen, and the yen continued to fall. In addition, Sino-US trade negotiations is coming to start, and the Japanese stock market continues to be positive, driving the dollar against the yen to remain strong. Technically, the USDJPY has broken the resistance of 110.95, but it is necessary to further look at whether the market has more good news to stimulate the global stock market to rise. Otherwise, the USD/JPY trend is likely to reverse and fall back to the 110 level.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7135/0.7155 resistance

0.7075/0.7050 support

Benefiting from economic and political problems in the European region, the dollar has turned stronger. In addition, the market is watching the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, and the Australian dollar is undergoing adjustment. If the Australian dollar avoids falling below the 0.7020 support risk, the Australian dollar still expected to break the resistance of 0.7135. At the moment, pay close attention to the Australian dollar to break through the resistance, and then try the 0.72 level, but please pay attention to short-term risks and fluctuations!

 

NZDUSD 

0.6830/0.6845 resistance

0.6805/0.6790 support

Sino-US trade consultations have begun, and the atmosphere is strong, and the New Zealand dollar is in full swing. If the Sino-US trade relations achieve and solved all problem, it is hoped that the New Zealand dollar will continue to improve. Conservative estimates, the initial resistance of the New Zealand dollar against the dollar is 0.6855.

 

USD/CAD

1.3275/1.3300 resistance

1.3235/1.3210 support

Crude oil inventories fell, it made the crude oil prices rebounded, and continue to maintain the level of 53 US dollars, is expected to continue to support the Canadian dollar. If the Sino-US trade negotiations make any breakthroughs and have the opportunity to stimulate demand for crude oil, it is expected to stimulate the Canadian dollar to rise. Tonight, we must pay attention to the performance of the US data and how it will affect the Canadian dollar. Good US data will drive the dollar to rise against the Canadian dollar.

 

EURGBP

0.8805/0.8820 resistance

0.8755/0.8740 support

There are still uncertainties in the risk of Brexit, affecting the performance of the British pound. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP data and inflation data were weak, the pound has downside risks. The opportunity to raise the euro against the pound. Technically, 0.8780 is the first important resistance reference, while the next level of resistance is 0.8805 and 0.8820.

 

EURCHF 

1.1405/1.1420 resistance

1.1350/1.1345 support

The euro zone was affected by Spain elections, and the euro fell, but did not seriously affect the Swiss franc, the euro against the Swiss franc. Technically, focus on 1.1350 and 1.1345 support.

 

XAUUSD 

1314/1316 resistance

1307/1305 support

The US Dow continues to rise, gold prices are slowing, and gold and silver prices are adjusting. It is expected that China-US trade consultation is expected to make progress. Good news will likely stimulate the global stock market to rise. There is a downside risk between gold and silver prices, which deserves attention. Technically, $1,305 is still the first important support. If the global stock market declines, the gold price will have a chance to rise further, and test the resistance between USD1314 and 1316.

 

US crude oil futures:

54.90/55.50 resistance

53.05/52.65 support

Recent analysis in Japan pointed out that short-term factors include the amount of crude oil inventories and the outcome of the Sino-US trade consultation negotiations. If they will bring any positive results or message, the crude oil price has a chance to rebound and test the US$54. Finally, the crude oil price broke through last night. Concerned about the outcome of the Sino-US trade consultation negotiations, if it sees results, it is expected to push up crude oil prices. But technically, you must focus on the resistance between the $55 and $56 ranges and pay attention to adjusting the risk.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

25680/25735 resistance

25380/25250 support

The market looks forward to the outcome of the meeting and negotiations between the China and US, and believes that the relationship improved and expected to support the stock market to perform well. However, during the negotiations, the stock market trended repeatedly, paying attention to the ups and downs of the US Dow. Technically, if the Dow falls below 25250 support, the trend may further expand the decline, but please pay attention to the adjustment of the next level of important support is still 24,750.

 

BTCUSD:

3480  / 3280 support

3750 / 3950 resistance 

If the demand increase and the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin, it could test the first resistance  US3750.

 

Enjoy trading!  

The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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