ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.02.15
Personal opinions today
The initial value of the fourth quarter GDP of the euro was flat compared with the previous quarter, easing the market's uncertain economic confidence in the euro zone. The number of US initial jobless claims and retail sales performance disappointed the market. One of the Fed officials said that the Fed should consider continuing to observe economic development in the first quarter and proposed to stop raising interest rates this year. After the US economic data was released last night and the Fed officials speech, the dollar weakened and the US dollar index fell back below 97.
The US Dow has fallen and one of the Fed officials said the Fed should stop raising interest rates, and the yen, gold and crude oil prices were supported. At present, the European economy is still unclear. The Brexit process is unknown and the political instability in Europe has made the European currency continue to weaken. This afternoon, the UK announced retail sales data, and the euro zone announced trade balance data. The market is watching whether European data is likely to improve and change the weak development of European currencies. Evening US economic data is also worthy of attention, including the New York Fed manufacturing index, US industrial output, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. If US data remained strong, European currencies and other major currencies fell against the US dollar. At the same time, gold and silver prices also have a chance to fall. Crude oil prices are expected to continue to test high.
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1305/1.1330 resistance
1.1255/1.1240 support
Eurozone economic data is weak, and the market is affected by the uncertainties of Brexit, which drags down the European economy. Weaker European economic data and the Brexit process, if there is no sign of improvement, assume the euro will continue to weaken and limited the level of rebound. Technically, 1.1330 is a short-term resistance. If the fundamentals of the Eurozone have not improved, it is believed that the opportunity to break through the resistance is lower.
GBPUSD
1.2835/1.2850 resistance
1.2750/1.2735 support
The British Parliament rejected the new Brexit draft and suspected that the British Prime Minister’s ability and effectiveness in dealing with the Brexit, the trend of the pound going down and the rebound was weak. Technically, the pound fell below the 1.2835 support level against the dollar and has become a short-term resistance. If the fundamental situation continues to change, or even worse, the GBP/USD will have the opportunity to test support at 1.2750 or 1.2735.
USDCHF
1.0080/1.0095 resistance
1.0045/1.0030 support
The euro fell, and the Swiss franc was fell as well. However the US retail data was weaker than the market expects, and the Swiss franc was supported. But the European economic and political factors, it is believed that the Swiss franc is still likely to fall. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is expected to consolidate within the resistance range of 1.0095 or 1.0120.
USD/JPY
110.65/110.80 resistance
110.25/110.10 support
The US Dow and the Nikkei index fell, and safe-haven funds flowed into the yen. The dollar fell against the yen and returned to the 110 level. If the Asian stock market fell during the day, the US economic data continued to weaken tonight, causing the US Dow to fall. It is estimated that the USD/JPY will have a chance to test the 109 level.
AUDUSD
0.7115/0.7130 resistance
0.7075/0.7060 support
The market is watching the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, and the Australian dollar is undergoing adjustment. Technically, if the Australian dollar avoids falling below the 0.7020 support risk, the Australian dollar is expected to improve. At present, we are closely monitoring the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the performance of US economic data.
NZDUSD
0.6830/0.6845 resistance
0.6805/0.6790 support
Sino-US trade consultations began, and the current wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the New Zealand dollar is consolidated. If the Sino-US trade relations achieve breakthrough development, it is expected that the New Zealand dollar will break through the resistance. It is currently recommended to pay close attention to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the performance of US economic data.
USD/CAD
1.3325/1.3340 resistance
1.3275/1.3255 support
Last night, US retail sales data was weak, affecting crude oil demand forecast, and the fluctuation of US crude oil prices indirectly affected the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. Tonight, we must pay attention to the performance of the US data and how it will affect the Canadian dollar.
EUR/GBP
0.8835/0.8855 resistance
0.8780/0.8760 support
There are still uncertainties in the risk of Brexit, affecting the performance of the British pound. UK economic data and inflation data were weak, and there was a downside risk to the pound, which caused the euro to rise against the pound. Technically, the euro broke the first significant resistance at 0.8780 against the pound and the next resistance was 0.8820. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the reversal, and the risk of the euro against the pound is falling.
EURCHF
1.1375/1.1390 resistance
1.1340/1.1325 support
The euro zone was affected by Spain's early elections, and the euro fell, but did not seriously affect the Swiss franc, the euro against the Swiss franc. Technically, focus on 1.1340 and 1.1325 support.
XAUUSD
1314/1316 resistance
1307/1305 support
If the Sino-US trade consultation progresses, good news will likely stimulate the global stock market to rise, and there is a downside risk for gold and silver prices. In addition, the performance of US economic data is worthy of attention. The US data is good, and the dollar is supported. The price of gold has a chance to fall. Technically, $1,305 is still the first important support. If the global stock market declines, the gold price will have a chance to rise further, and test the resistance zone of 1314/1316.
US crude oil futures:
54.90/55.50 resistance
53.05/52.65 support
Concerned about the final outcome of the Sino-US trade negotiations. If the negotiations progress well, it is expected to push up the price of crude oil. But technically, we must focus on the resistance between the $55 and $56 ranges and pay attention to adjusting the risk.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
25480/25570 resistance
25250/25180 support
The market looks forward to the outcome of the meeting and negotiations going well, and expected to support the stock market to perform well. However, during the negotiations, the stock market adjusted. Technically, if the Dow falls below 25250 support, the trend may further expand the decline, but you can pay attention to the adjustment of the next level of important support is still 24,750.
BTCUSD:
3480 / 3280 support
3750 / 3950 resistance
If the demand increase and the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin, it could test the first resistance US3750.
Enjoy trading!
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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