Investment Highlights

• We maintain our BUY call on Berjaya Food (BFood) with a higher DCF-derived fair value (FV) (WACC: 8.7% and terminal growth rate: 1%) of RM5.05/share (from RM3.30/share previously), based on revised earnings. Our FV implies 14.5x PE, based on FY23F EPS.

• We are revising our earnings forecasts upwards by 34% for FY22F, 42% for FY23F and 51% for FY24F after imputing more bullish sales and margin assumptions. Starbucks Malaysia’s earnings, which account for 96% of BFood’s FY22F net profit, are expected to remain resilient, underpinned by high customer retention rates and effectiveness of the company’s strategy in generating consumer interest through switching outlet formats, leveraging third-party delivery services, and change in customers’ loyalty reward programme.

• Following the earnings revision, BFood is now our sector’s top pick. Leveraging on Starbucks’ strong brand equity, we believe BFood is relatively in a better position to compete in retaining consumers’ share of wallet under the current inflationary environment compared to its peers. In addition, Starbucks’ target audience of middle to high-income groups are likely to be more sticky given their bigger discretionary income buffer and more resilient spending habits to offset rising costs of living.

• To fight against rising raw material prices, BFood is taking a different approach compared to its peers. Instead of passing the additional costs to end-consumers, the company is actively improving its product portfolio by pushing higher-margin products and widening offerings.

• Anecdotally, Starbucks Malaysia appears to be running more aggressive marketing campaigns on promoting seasonal blended beverages which tend to have better margins. Capitalising on strong branding and customer loyalty, the brand also widened its merchandise offerings. The company is also taking active measures to diversify Kenny Rogers Roasters’ (KRR) offerings by reducing its heavy exposure to one single cost item i.e. chicken.

• The group’s new venture, Paris Baguette’s earnings contribution is expected to be immaterial in the near-term as it goes through a gestation period. Pending the completion of SPC Group’s distribution facility in Johor (estimated in June 2023), we believe the bakery chain stores will likely have to import its key raw materials and this may limit its near-term earnings upside potential.

• Nevertheless, we believe that Paris Baguette is a positive addition as it will help to extend BFood’s potential growth runway. The group’s strategy to progressively open 5 outlets/year, or a total of 50 stores in 10 years, will avoid potential over-investment while giving local consumers an opportunity to develop an appetite for the Paris Baguette brand.

Other Key Points on Paris Baguette Joint Venture

• The initial investment of RM30mil by the joint venture entity (BFood’s portion: RM15mil), will be utilised to open the first few outlets and covers the business’ operating expenses at the initial stage. The first store will be in Klang Valley and expected to commence operation by the end of 2022.

Source: AmInvest Research - 23 Jun 2022