Credit spreads are likely to widen, but to remain relatively tight in the coming year – Our expectation is that in 2024, ringgit credit spreads will remain tight near their current range, though lifted slightly as spreads rebound from record levels.
We base our outlook on the following factors: 1) improvements in credit health alongside firm GDP growth; 2) continued accommodative monetary policy; and 3) modest increase in net issuance of PDS set for 2024.
Steadier GDP growth offers expectations of better corporate sector returns and healthier cashflows, and thus providing little impetus for repricing of credit risks. Meanwhile, accommodative monetary policy and improvements in financial conditions should support sentiment. Alongside moderate inflation outlook and end to global and domestic monetary tightening, our forecast is for sustained OPR up to end 2024 at 3.00%.
As we go into 2024, our anticipation is for net PDS issuances to show a modest increase as GDP grows and capacity in the economy increases via a rise in investments. This will limit the downside to PDS yields in the coming year. Lastly, we note there is dislocation, or misalignment, in the credit curves of some issuers amid the current profit-taking activity. These include GG and AAA curves. We foresee downward curve realignment to occur in the short to medium term, if our assumption for PDS yields will show modest downside comes true in 2024.
Our expectation is that in 2024, ringgit credit spreads will remain tight near their current range, though lifted slightly as spreads rebound from record levels.
We base our outlook on the following factors: 1) improvements in credit health alongside firm GDP growth; 2) continued accommodative monetary policy; and 3) modest increase in net issuance of PDS set for 2024.
Continued improvements in credit health amongst corporate bond issuers. Steadier Malaysia GDP growth from this year and into 2024-2025 offers expectations of better corporate sector returns and healthier cashflows, and thus providing little impetus for repricing of credit risks.
Monetary policy will remain accommodative and financial conditions should improve, supporting sentiment in the bond market. Alongside moderate inflation outlook and end to global and domestic monetary tightening, our forecast for sustained OPR up to end 2024 at 3.00% and anticipation that MGS yields will undergo a modest decline in 2024, will continue to support sentiment for PDS. As it were, moderation of inflation in recent months has raised the attractiveness of bonds by way of higher real yields (Exhibit 10).
Source: AmInvest Research - 1 Dec 2023