DNeX - Weighting the outcomes

Gerard Lam
Publish date: Fri, 09 Dec 2022, 09:38 AM

At current valuation, investors are basically pricing in Silterra to be worth zero to DNeX, which is an impossible scenario. 

Let's assess what are the outcomes of the arbitration, and its impact to DNeX:

If arbitration favours DNeX:

If the arbitration favours DNeX, DNeX would retain 60% direct interest in Silterra, and CGP would retain 40%.

Next question would be would CGP sell out?

If CGP sells out - Other chip majors such as Foxconn (already have a direct interest in DNeX and working to build a 12 inch fab with DNeX) would highly likely acquire this 40% stake. This would further leverage DNeX's postion in the EV industry and boost Silterra's value

If CGP does not sell out - then Business As Usual. 

If arbitration favours CGP:

DNeX will be left with 40% stake in Silterra.

Let's say DNeX sells out its 40% stake, this would equal to a potential proceed of RM2.4bil to DNeX, being equity value of RM6bil x 40% = RM2.4bil.

RM2.4bil, would be RM0.76 per share, being RM2.4bil / 3.16bil shares (Just for Silterra portion, not including DNeX's other business that are worth around RM0.47 per share, taking a brokerage house's estimates)

In no scenario would DNeX value just be RM0.55 (pricing in 0 value from Silterra), as the worst case would be DNeX owning 40%, instead of 0%.

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lol, what about the license being revoked?

2022-12-09 09:51

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