GLam

DNeX - Significantly undervalued with strong upside from worldwide 200mm wafer shortage

Gerard Lam
Publish date: Sat, 24 Jul 2021, 02:23 PM

Based on SMIC's quarter 1 results will show that SMIC's 200mm wafer fab revenue increase by ~29% from Q420 to Q121 (almost entire increase due to increase in ASP instead of capacity, as SMIC's capacity has maxed out at 98% based on the disclosure). Note that SMIC's revenue are entirely 200mm wafer

https://www.smics.com/en/site/company_financialSummary

Back to Silterra, at 64% capacity for 2020, Silterra achieved RM568mil revenue for 2020.

A simple back on the envelope calculation:
RM568mil / 64% x 92% (Current Silterra capacity) = RM816.5mil

Assuming 75% of Silterra's 200mm wafers had 20% ASP increase (conservative compared to SMIC):
(RM816.5mil x 75% x 1.2) + (RM816.5 x 25% x 1.0)
= RM939mil (Silterra 2021 conservative revenue)

How about profitability?
Note that Silterra is and has been EBITDA positive, which means that they are generating positive cash flows.
So why Profit after tax is negative? This is due to RM57mil depreciation per year.
However, after Silterra is acquired by DNeX, the useful lives of the assets of RM100mil book value will be re-measured (as machines for 200mm wafer fab have increased useful lives due to current market shortage)

Thus, depreciation will fall to RM6mil per year (based on RM100mil book value of assets)

Based on reduced depreciation, ASP and capacity increase, Silterra can easily turn the 2020's loss of RM64mil into profit of more than RM300mil from:

- Revenue increase by more than RM350mil
- Depreciation fall by more than RM40mil

In conclusion, Silterra's simple and conservative back of envelope calculation shows it could easily make RM150mil - RM250mil profit after tax this year.

Based on DNeX's 60% stake in Silterra, at 60x PE (Semiconductor), Silterra's value alone to DNeX is RM2.32

RM200mil (PAT) / 3.1bil shares (fully diluted) = RM0.039 (EPS)

60 PE x RM0.039 (EPS) = RM2.32

This is only current year earnings, not including Silterra's future growth prospects in MEMS and Silicon Photonics in Electric vehicles and Data centres.

This is the reason foreign investment banks and proprietary investment funds have been buying so confidently from retailers.

Related Stocks
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 0 of 0 comments

Post a Comment