The journey of finding golden eggs
[GADANG AGM的感想]
昨天小妹我也凑热闹参加了GADANG的股东大会，我上个礼拜也说了后悔错过GADANG, 但是在股价回调后，我依然没有买进，因为GADANG在我看来是在一个高点了，现在买入的价格，需要有很高的成长来赚回一年20%，我算了算，GADANG是很难完成我的目标的。只有靠着ＳＰＥＣＵＬＡＴＩＶＥ ＲＥＴＵＲＮ来安慰自己是很不实际的。
昨天也听管理层说他们在一半的竞标中失败了，还有一半要竞标，而且GADANG的orderbook真的剩不多，相比GKENT真的天差地远。管理层也说了，要维持去年的Profit是一定可以做到，只是目前的估值是要有高成长的。所以我建议买在高点的战友要很小心，价值不能无中生有，小心烧到手。
还有令我担心的是GADANG的CASH FLOW，股东大会中也有人问到这个问题，毕竟真的不是很美的CASH FLOW, 虽然盈利节节上升，但是公司反而需要借贷来发展。钞票不能无中生有，只有收到的钱才是赚到的钱。
很多投资者以PE作为衡量VALUE的标准，这点我非常不认同。举个例子说, GKENT PE很高，但是是一家ＮＥＴＣＡＳＨ公司，CASH FLOW 也非常的顺。而GADANG本益比看起来虽然低，但是这是一家有债务的公司，现金流也不是很顺，订单也较ＧＫＥＮＴ来得低很多。从这个角度看，ＧＫＥＮＴ就看起来较ＧＡＤＡＮＧ有价值。
虽然比较之下ＧＡＤＡＮＧ是略差，但是我还是非常佩服ＧＡＤＡＮＧ的管理层。因为我爸爸也是Ｃｏｎｔｒａｃｔｏｒ，我清楚知道这是一门风险很高的生意，要做得像ＧＡＤＡＮＧ一样是非常难的。投资建筑股也就是加入了一门较高风险的生意。所以我建议大家在别人依依不舍时，orderbook又没有很大改变的情况下，卖出。
套用价值投资始祖BENGRAHAM的一句话，股票短期是一架投票机，长期是称重机。
原来冷眼大师也已经卖出GADANG, 老实说现在的价格是非常合理的。
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1 person likes this. Showing 28 of 28 comments
When you said this, you are expected to give the source of info to prove the credibility of the news, OR you are just another empty talking writer.
原来冷眼大师也已经卖出GADANG, 老实说现在的价格是非常合理的。
2016-11-05 14:12
very confuse last few days just read he recomend 4 counter can be invest gadang is one of them .. today say he alreday sell ... who ????
2016-11-05 14:21
He said he sold all at RM 3 today at Nanyang siang pau headquater on his talk.
2016-11-05 15:31
Just check with who attend the talk, feedback said cool air not mention about Gadang, are him talk to you personally?
2016-11-05 15:54
So where is the announcement of change in substantial shareholders' shareholding?
GoldenEggs: He said he sold all at RM 3 today at Nanyang siang pau headquater on his talk.
2016-11-05 17:49
@skyrocket: he's not a substantial shareholder, hence, there wont be any announcement. On the other hand, he did comment that Gadang is now fully valued, but never heard the word "sold all".
2016-11-05 18:34
I'm sure if cold eye really mentioned "sold all" it will cause a chaos on monday.
2016-11-05 18:37
Checkout below video...
Is very clear that Mr. Cold Eye take Gadang as example in his speech, not a buy call, where he said that he still holding it on average cost of RM1.60...And he said currently is fully valued...He never mentioned he sold all...
Fully valued if based on current orderbooks...if keep receives new project, then is different story....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8O2oZc8BVU
2016-11-05 18:58
Why you all focus Gadang??? 1000 counters do some work la....Find other good company la.... Keep saying Gadang later drop blame father, blame mother, never blame yourself.
2016-11-05 19:09
Long term growth stock for him. He taught us once found a good stock never let it go so easily unless no more growth. Keep for long long and hope to win big. This is his philosophy as far as i know.
2016-11-05 19:38
Of course must always supervise the company performance and fundamental.
2016-11-05 19:40
Fong Siling also good at playing with words
Careful with his sweet talk
2016-11-05 23:31
Valuation:
...................."New paradigm"!!!
....................Delusion....^.denial
.........................Greed..|.|...^.return to "normal"
.....................Public...../...\..|.|..Bull
.............Enthusiasm.../......V...\.....trap
..........Institutional...../.............\...Fear
.................Investors /................|
Smart money........./..................|....Capitulation
.First sell off........./.media..........\
Take.....____....../..attention.........|.Return to the
......Off/........\__/...........................|....../...mean
.....__/.........Bear............................\.../
__/...................Trap.........................V..despair
___________________________________>Time
________^______^_____^________^
Stealth__|_Aware-|Mania|Blow_off_|
__Phase_|ness___|Phase|Phase___|
________|Phase__|_____|_________|
2016-11-06 00:10
Try to follow is another blind spot which Cold Eye himself never promote. He asked to study more rather blindly buy.
2016-11-06 08:16
@GoldenEggs 冷眼讲的是George Kent(Gkent)不要追高啦，听听 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8O2oZc8BVU 第六秒开始 。。。
2016-11-07 14:29
EggTart, u must listen the whole talk, not part of the talk only please.....he talked about gadang before gkent. Really hopeless zzzz
2016-11-12 15:56
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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冷眼本人告诉你的？
2016-11-05 11:44