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M+ Online Technical Outlook - Selling Intensified - Oversold - 16 May 2016

MalaccaSecurities
Publish date: Mon, 16 May 2016, 10:02 AM
An official blog in I3investor to publish research reports provided by Malacca Securities research team.

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Weekly Recap

Wall Street extended its retreat amid concerns over global growth amid a slew of weaker-than-expected corporate earnings. The Dow trended mixed at the start of the week, losing 34.72 pts to 17,705.91 pts on Monday. However, as soon as commodities like WTI crude oil prices rebounded off the EMA20 level and surged above the US$46 level, energy shares were focused and the Dow rocketed 222.44 pts to 17,928.35 pts on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, the buying interest fizzled out on renewed worries over U.S. consumer spending on disappointing results from Macy’s and Walt Disney – the Dow dived 217.23 pts to 17,711.12 pts on Wednesday. After a flat trading on Thursday, where the Dow ended at 17,720.50 pts (+9.38 pts), selling pressure intensified, led by Goldman Sachs, Wal-Mart and 3M and the Dow declined 185.18 pts to 17,535.32 on Friday. On the weekly basis, the Dow fell 205.31 pts, marking the third weekly losses.

Similarly, Bursa Malaysia started the week on a negative tone amid the weaker sentiment from overseas stockmarkets, coupled with the cautious trading environment ahead of 1MDB’s bond interest payment – the FBM KLCI plummeted 17.17 pts to 1,632.19 pts on Monday. Follow-through selling pressure was noted which sent the key index towards an intra-day low of 1,614.40 pts before bargain hunting activities emerged and the key index recouped all the previous losses to end higher at 1,635.84 pts (+3.65 pts) on Tuesday.

The buying support extended as crude oil prices rebounded – the FBM KLCI rose 8.74 pts and 4.40 pts to 1,644.58 pts and 1,648.98 pts over the next two trading days respectively. Nevertheless, profit taking activities resumed after the MSCI cut its weighting on many banking stocks like CIMB and Maybank – the FBM KLCI sank 20.72 pts to 1,628.26 pts on Friday. Also, foreign funds were net sellers (RM657.6 mln) on Friday.

Last week, the FBM KLCI lost 21.1 pts.

FBM KLCI Weekly Technical Readings

The weekly MACD Line has crossed below the zero level after it has issued the “Sell” signal two weeks ago. The weekly RSI has tripped below 50.

Meanwhile, the daily MACD Line continues to trend lower. The daily RSI, however, is hovering in the oversold region.

FBM KLCI Support & Resistance

Once again, the FBM KLCI retreated below the EMA9 after a three-day rebound last week – indicating that the downtrend is intact. Overall, the medium term trend is pointing downwards. However, as the daily RSI is oversold, the FBM KLCI may rebound towards the resistance of the 1,660 level over the near term. Meanwhile, if the key index breaches the immediate support of 1,600, the next support will be set around 1,550.

Moving Forward

Wall Street is likely to continue with its correction phase over the near term as the Dow and S&P500 are hovering below the EMA20 level. Meanwhile, share prices on

Bursa Malaysia will likely to trend sideways after the MSCI cut weightings on some stocks. Nevertheless, traders could look for opportunities within the oil and gas sector as the crude oil prices are recovering. Also, the construction sector is likely to be focused this week.

 

Sector focus

The Construction index rebounded off the 287 level despite the negative broader market sentiment. The MACD Indicator has issued a “Buy” signal, while the RSI is approaching 50. Resistance will be pegged around 300. Support will be set around 280.

 

Stocks to focus

MITRA– Price experienced a strong breakout above RM1.31. The MACD Indicator is suggesting that the trend is positive and the RSI is hovering above 50. Price target will be envisaged around RM1.40-RM1.50. Support will be anchored around RM1.27.

MMCCORP – Price rebounded off the RM2.11 level with improved volumes. As both the MACD and RSI indicators are trending positively, price may trend higher towards the RM2.33 level. Support will be envisaged around RM2.03.

Source: M+ Online Research - 16 May 2016

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