Erudite Thoughts

THE ANTI-GLOVE VACCINE STORY HAS LOST ITS BITE. GLOVE BEARS BEWARE!!

sutp
Publish date: Fri, 29 Jan 2021, 05:06 PM
sutp
0 6
Retired senior executive of PLCs. 40+ years managing companies and developing large scale projects internationally.

Scanning the news this morning, the question that comes to my mind is whether the coronavirus pandemic can ever end.  The short answer is, “NO ONE KNOWS”.  But I think the anti-glove vaccine story has lost its bite.

Summarized below are the recent news headlines and expert opinions on the covid situation:

1.     CNN: Don’t bet on the vaccines being a magic bullet

2.     No one vaccine is 100% effective

3.     Vaccines may help to reduce transmission, but may not provide herd immunity

4.     There are still many unknowns around vaccines, such as whether they can stop transmission and for how long they provide immunity

5.     German Officials: Don’t give AstraZeneca vaccine to people over 65

6.     New covid variants more transmissible and more lethal

7.     Mutation out pacing vaccine

8.     IMF: New coronavirus variants pose risk to global economy. The pandemic is causing "exceptional uncertainty". New variants of the coronavirus could prove difficult to contain. Much now depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating virus and vaccines to end the pandemic, and on the ability of policies to provide effective support until that happens.

9.     Experts simply don’t know how vaccines will react to the new variants

10. Moderna said that while their vaccine is expected to be protective against emerging strains, it may be less effective against the South African variant

11. Outbreaks are still running out of control in many countries

12. New covid waves flare up in China, Korea; 2 countries who had been successful in quelling them last year

13. 23 elderly people died in Norway after receiving the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine

14. Resistance to vaccination by minorities and general vaccine hesitancy among large sections of the population in the west

15. Anti-lockdown protests erupt across Europe

16. Growing concern over slow vaccine rollouts

17. Nations fighting over vaccine

18. Vaccine nationalism

19. Full lifting or relaxation of restrictions will lead to prolonged and potentially multiple periods of pressure and deaths

20. Gradual relaxation of control measures continuing into 2022 is recommended

21. Another surge in winter or fall this year is possible

22. Herd immunity may never be achieved

23. We should look forward to a safe, effective vaccine for the coronavirus disease but not expect it to be the ultimate panacea.

I am in my sixties and I hope the pandemic can be stopped. But I don't see any optimistic reports about that in the news. There remains tremendous uncertainty, and prospects vary greatly across countries.

IF COVID-19 PERSISTS AND CANNOT BE TOTALLY CONTAINED, HYGIENE CONSCIOUSNESS WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED AND DEMAND FOR GLOVES WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY MORE YEARS. 

Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 2 of 2 comments

LimitUp

Demand of gloves will far outstrip supply for the next 2 years at least.

2021-01-29 17:39

calvin69

The pandemic is far from over - US gloves expert sees not drop in demand or even prices anytime soon. See note out from Credit Suisse Malaysia today. Glove prices to stay higher for longer! Top Glove has hugely underperformed China’s Intco (up 64% THIS YEAR)!

* Key takeaways from our call with an expert in the US healthcare supply chain: The recent supply disruption caused by Covid outbreaks at the Malaysia glove factories have seen some US buyers diversifying imports from other countries such as Turkey.

* Beyond Covid, demand growth for gloves in the US is expected to be in the 20% range, vs 6-8% in the past. The key driver of demand has been changes in user behaviour, instead of an oversimplified view of testing rates.

* Based on current data points, he believes ASP in 2021 will be at least on par, if not higher than the end-2020 levels. A correction in ASP will only take place when supply finally catches up with demand, which seems unlikely in the foreseeable future. Even so, the ASP decline is expected to be gradual, rather than a steep decline.

* Whilst sector fundamentals appear to be intact, the Malaysia and Thailand gloves' share price performance has been flattish YTD. We reiterate our Outperform on both Top Glove and Sri Trang Gloves.

2021-01-29 17:41

Post a Comment