A WORD FOR THE FUTURE STOCK TRADERS

OIL ! A MAGNITUDE 8 OF FORTUNES.

STOCKHACKER
Publish date: Sun, 15 Mar 2015, 03:16 PM
A personal opinion in stock trading

Oil and money are just something you need in case you don't die tomorrow. 

Well, money will make you do things you don't want to do. On that point, there are no noble intentions when it comes money in the stock market. And it's dead certain to me. Self interest is the first priority to many investors. That's the truth. And why many willing to waste time and energy arguing and "catching his balls" with the one desperate philanthropist in the financial column? ....Amusing, but true. (Jho Low is also one "philanthropist" )

Ok, let's get into to point, the coming next crisis, they will be ruinous. I frequently find myself explaining the difference between the purpose of investing, greed, money and intrinsic wealth. 

You may or not mindful that an investor is the one who puts capital into an asset in anticipating of making a profit. A speculator is someone who allocates capital in order to profit from distortions in the financial market. The super rich are going to make the fortunes and sure after, the rest of the uninformed people left, are picking up the bills.

Now bearish signs from the oil prices is mounting again. The super rich is picking stocks in great companies when no one else is buying and prices are way down near the bottom. But observe the word "NEAR". No one can time market tops or bottoms reliably. The opportunity will come along, are you be bold enough to catch it? 

The crash of non-renewable energy resources.

Let's reflect back the events that came after. The spread of Arab Spring was muted by high petroleum prices in between 2010 to 2012. This is fast, though not a popular one. How did the Saudi Arabia prevent protests in its Kingdom? The House of Saud promised tenths of billions of dollars in social programs. Of The Kingdom can fare well even the oil is $40 in 2015, how about other oil producer countries?

-- How will the oil producing countries such as the members of OPEC, Russia, Canada and Mexico fare with $40 oil in 2015?

-- How will the African petro-states function and how will Malaysia overcome these uncertainties in 2015?

-- How will the investors, who is exposed to billions of dollars in the US energy sector leading to fare if the oil stays below $45 in 2015?

History doesn't repeat exactly the same, but human nature has a repeatable pattern. Let's examine the basic facts.

Every time you fill the tank with gas, every time you fly on a plane, every time you throw out a plastic spoon, or buy a few litres of oil for your car, or add a new tube of mascara to your makeup case, you are consuming oil. The oil used to make those items will never exist again. It is gone. And without it, the world has just a bit less oil to power its future. 

The growth in energy consumption will only increase in the future, even with energy efficiency improvements.
The world will consume much more oil in 5 years than it does today. Why I am so sure that oil will be more valuable compared to gold? Because of one simple fact. Gold can be bought and sold for years, but oil gets burned. Gold is traded, but oil is traded and consumed. Every day, no fewer than 100 million barrels of oil disappeared forever in a puff of exhaust. And please keep in mind, when money dies, gold will be the winner, but the biggest winner of all will be oil.

We are all just regular investors. 

Investing/trading the opportunities isn't easy. If you want to perform well in cyclical sectors such as energy and mining (rare minerals), you must be able to buy, when the sector is unloved and beaten down. Unfortunately, from a psychology standpoint, it's more comfortable to buy when it feels good.

But why I avoid investing long term in 2015? ---Because a regular investor doesn't have extra privileges.---

In reality, we can't invest like Mr.Buffet. The large majority of regular investors can't because Buffet emphasize on investing in the productivity of the asset, which can be measured. Rather than its potential price change, which can't.

He can always demand for tailored and special "preferred" stocks, and higher benefits "structured" deals, that in term of fairness, the remainder of the regular investors will never get the same privilege, special dividends and guaranteed return that he had, even we invest in the same assets, example, Bank of America shares or BofA.

Secondly, we can't invest like Buffet because our investment, unlike his is not a self fulfilling prophecy. Because when he invest, others believe and the price immediately shoot up and profiting from the implicit taxpayers' guarantee. 
So, we have to deal with no special privileges, we share and read the same information, but do not have the same benefits and fairness. And in the era of digital communication, value investing is not a catch anymore.

For whatever reason, if an investment causes you to stress to the point that you cannot catch some zzz's, you're distracted from your daily life, sell enough stocks to alleviate the situation. If you're still.with me, we move on to explore further with your ambition, highly organized attitude and discipline.

There are no short cuts when it comes to money.----Be patient.-----

If you are bold enough. Have fun! Create a balanced portfolio of your own in the coming volatility. The current market is very exciting, but carries a significant level of uncertainties and volatility. So give your speculation or whatever you named it, some time to play out. Such a speculation demand that the investor wait for the market to catch on the potential.

This is a specific rule ---be patient-----is probably the most unmanageable of all to stick to. A speculator/ trader is his or her worst enemy. First, recognize that you will make mistakes. And that will result in losing money along that trade. Not every trade will be a winner instantly. 

With the oil at below $45 per barrel, could it be "massive changes"  that many aren't expecting? Could I possibly be wrong here? You bet I could. But this is not my first downturn. There are blood in the streets in the energy sector and I love that. For this fact, you don't require any intellectual knowledge to hop on a profitable opportunity.

Right away if you believe that the to be successful in the resource sector, now is the time to become engaged. Look, we're not doing this just for the money, we are doing this for **** loads of money!

I play on the coming volatility. Again.

 

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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 3 of 3 comments

The One

Well said.. and yes.. oil is not infinite.. not something you can grow back on trees. Its just a matter of timing and the ability to hold the beaten down O&G counters. Thats why the riches will get richer.. coz they know and went thru this cycle again and again..

2015-03-15 20:38

Kevin Wong

Happy and prosperous investing everybody!

2015-03-16 10:02

annmix

buy and hold....

2015-03-16 11:27

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