A WORD FOR THE FUTURE STOCK TRADERS

LEAVE POLITICS ASIDE AND DRAFT OUR OWN DESTINY.

STOCKHACKER
Publish date: Sat, 14 Mar 2015, 01:30 PM
A personal opinion in stock trading

Income and wealth inequality. The rising income gap is real and it has been stoked by government largesse. The question is, ---can anything be done?---It is a severe problem that isn't going away. Historically, the government only answer has been forced wealth redistribution. 

Yes, everyone knows, that doesn't work. In fact, it made matters worse by creating world class "scandals" and expanding "unnecessary" population dependent on its handouts. Can we somehow hold the lead to grow our wealth? How can we calm the anger and restore hope? ---Can anything be done? ---

The government will render you; Justice? Fairness? Promises? Equality?... And so on....?  Realistically, nothing can be made out at this moment. Political correctness do not belong to financial markets. Once money is on the lines, we must face facts, not opinions. Failure to keep an open mind will cause your temper to flare and lead to your bank account to disintegrate.

I should stop wasting my time in political agendas and devote my focus on more productive sector of the economic system and execute my plans. So, I resolved to rely on my own research and making towards my own destiny.

​Its time to start engaged now.

You have probably heard the term smart money used by various pundits, a reference to those prominent  investors and institutions that are consistently better at making money than the uninformed masses. Which begs the question: Are you one of them? 

1. A good example of this is the recent world oil crisis. Wild speculations of the disasters caused panicky bouts of selling. Most stocks lost a big chunk of their value in less than one month. To apply a classic idiom, ---there were blood on the streets----and that of course was the time to trade.

2. You have accumulated a number of stocks and watch your brokerage account swell to a level that you never seen before. The greed around you are palpable. Everyone is talking about the latest stock pick. A classic sign of a mania in full bloom. Only you knew that's enough, and you sensed this couldn't go on forever. And sold your stock prior to the top, just as the greed reached a pinnacle. 

3. You get beyond the traditional advice by the buy on rumours /sell the facts. You largely ignore the blather from mainstream media and instead concentrate on the factors that ultimately drive headlines. When it reaches the mainstream media, you are already invested. And looking at what will be tomorrow's headlines. 

4. You identified the fundamental factors driving the trends, bought big and held on. No technical analysis, no trend lines on the chart, no fancy signals from moving averages. And you are so much known that you won't scare out of the first drop in monetary value.

5. You understand there are no sure things and further, no one is going to bail you out if your decision turns out to be wrong. You retain a realistic expectations and keep an eye on your investments. And if you necessitate a loss and you learn from it and refused to let it keep you investing again. 

6. That is still true today, every investors that enters the stock market need to understand that on the other side of every single trade they make is another human being. As in all walks of life. Not all human beings are equally honest and smart or friendly. Remembering this would encourage you do do more homework. 

7. The public and the fat cats--absolutely the politicians--all think that a high stock market is, almost by definition a good thing. But you know that it doesn't necessarily mean the economy is doing well or that public company is doing great. An artificially high stock market can send false signals to the investors. It can cause false confidence before it runs off the cliff.

8. You ignore official government reports and relies on your own research and data.

-- Is real inflation likely to rise or go down in the next few years?
-- Is it more probable that interest rates will remain depressed or move higher?
-- Is the Ringgit is likely to be stronger or weaker in the next few years?
-- Which assets are most likely to earn money over the next few years? Which should be avoided and why?
-- Will the global economic system to be on solid footing during the next few years? 
-- Is oil, technology, energy, consumer or something else offers the best opportunity? 
-- Are the assets you are holding in a bubble, or will be higher in the coming years? 

Once you address the topics, you can find out if you're in a true asset bubble and your answer to those questions will determine the action you will take at the next correction. 

The peak is not going to be here until you hear the money honeys talking about stocks everywhere and all your friends are talking about the latest high flying stock. Don't worry about the chart.  Don't worry about statistics, trend lines on your screen, supply and demand figures and any of that.

The best indication of where the market is at any moment now is psychology. Watch the public's psychology. What's the smart money doing with bets on interest rates, energy, commodities and real estate? What do they think about the economy and the likelihood of another recession? Is the global currency war about to erupt? How the below $45 oil price will distort the Arab Spring soon?

Non of us can be smart in every aspect of investing;

-- But you can ascertain out what they're thinking and how they're positioning their own portfolios.

If your own research tells you this isn't the real bubble, then you might embrace the next correction instead of fearing it. It's when your psychology has changed state from negative to giddy, that will mark the top. Money won is twice as sweet as money earned. Always. 


Live smart and happy.

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