ChokeSlam
JAKS - IPP CLARITY CERTAINTY
SarifahSelinder
Publish date: Wed, 01 Jan 2020, 01:16 PM
SarifahSelinder Philip
Sarifah totally disagree wit ur take on d Vietnam IPP profit
Profit tu is not subjective in fact very independent on who is making the projection
It is not dependent on if it is Koon Andy Cfo (Ex) CPECC who is making d projection as u say
Actually whn it was disclosed tat d Vietnam IPP has a potential IRR of 12% it preciously meant tat the potential IRR of the Vietnam IPP is 12%
Pontential IRR is 12% means potential IRR is 12%
It is stupid Andy tat made d search around d world on companies from US China Korea etc necessary
If Andy is not so stupid but has disclosured all d info n data on d Veitnam IPP thn wat DK66 has done (in 18 blogs no less) will b totally unnecessary
However thing has turned out nicely
DK66 has provern with real life info n data from other similar Veitnam IPPs tat d potential IRR is in fact around 12%
Those info n data extracted by DK66 confirmed tat d the engineers the accountants the bankers the lawyers etc all tat r involved ALL KNEW CLEARY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL RETURN from d Vietnam IPP sebelum starting
KNEW CLEARY not investing blindly
Baring unforeseen hiccups of course
And so far touch wood thr hv been no hiccups instead d construction has proceesed very smoothly
In short wat Sarifah is saying the engineers the accountants the bankers the lawyers etc can b taken at face value tat is d potential IRR is 12%
And at IRR 12% the pontential profit for 30% is around RM300m depending on US MYR rate
But PBB has indicated tat d IRR is more likely around MID TEEN
MID TEEN is more thn 12
Tis IRR wil b realised whn thinngs go smoothly and things hv gone smoothly
Philip Greta Valuation is a very interesting subject in light of no concrete results and returns from the earnings of power plant generation.
You have:
1. irr and estimated returns from ALP.
2. Irr and estimated returns from CFO.
3. Irr and estimated returns from dk66 based on other managed power plants.
4. Estimated figures from kyy( when he was most confident and when he was most negative) otb, hlbank and other fund managers.
All seem to be different from low to high range.
I would love to balance the scale, if only I have the first quarter results from power plant generation to use as base performance valuation.
If we keep everything to jaks, we have the realities versus the estimates.
I think I prefer qualitative margin of safety to guide my estimates.
One lesson I did learn is how to tune valuations to meet the requirements.
Dk66, otb, other fund managers have positions in the stock, their valuations will always be rosy. I suffer from the same tinted glass view, the need to prove my thesis is correct.
ALP wants you to buy stock, he will give you good estimates.
Kyy has ego in being played out on this stock, bad memories, bad valuation.
CFO is in charge of the finances and cash flow, his estimates are based on his need to cover his ass from losses. He sold.
My valuation is based on whether I can get 20% growth continuously for the next 5 years, and risk I am willing to bear to hold the stock for multiple years through severe volatility.
I choose to sleep well at night.
>>>>>>>
lets not blindly discard the other side of the equation...the valuation part.
the balance weighing scale has two sides
01/01/2020 10:49 AM
Sarifah totally disagree wit ur take on d Vietnam IPP profit
Profit tu is not subjective in fact very independent on who is making the projection
It is not dependent on if it is Koon Andy Cfo (Ex) CPECC who is making d projection as u say
Actually whn it was disclosed tat d Vietnam IPP has a potential IRR of 12% it preciously meant tat the potential IRR of the Vietnam IPP is 12%
Pontential IRR is 12% means potential IRR is 12%
It is stupid Andy tat made d search around d world on companies from US China Korea etc necessary
If Andy is not so stupid but has disclosured all d info n data on d Veitnam IPP thn wat DK66 has done (in 18 blogs no less) will b totally unnecessary
However thing has turned out nicely
DK66 has provern with real life info n data from other similar Veitnam IPPs tat d potential IRR is in fact around 12%
Those info n data extracted by DK66 confirmed tat d the engineers the accountants the bankers the lawyers etc all tat r involved ALL KNEW CLEARY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL RETURN from d Vietnam IPP sebelum starting
KNEW CLEARY not investing blindly
Baring unforeseen hiccups of course
And so far touch wood thr hv been no hiccups instead d construction has proceesed very smoothly
In short wat Sarifah is saying the engineers the accountants the bankers the lawyers etc can b taken at face value tat is d potential IRR is 12%
And at IRR 12% the pontential profit for 30% is around RM300m depending on US MYR rate
But PBB has indicated tat d IRR is more likely around MID TEEN
MID TEEN is more thn 12
Tis IRR wil b realised whn thinngs go smoothly and things hv gone smoothly
Philip Greta Valuation is a very interesting subject in light of no concrete results and returns from the earnings of power plant generation.
You have:
1. irr and estimated returns from ALP.
2. Irr and estimated returns from CFO.
3. Irr and estimated returns from dk66 based on other managed power plants.
4. Estimated figures from kyy( when he was most confident and when he was most negative) otb, hlbank and other fund managers.
All seem to be different from low to high range.
I would love to balance the scale, if only I have the first quarter results from power plant generation to use as base performance valuation.
If we keep everything to jaks, we have the realities versus the estimates.
I think I prefer qualitative margin of safety to guide my estimates.
One lesson I did learn is how to tune valuations to meet the requirements.
Dk66, otb, other fund managers have positions in the stock, their valuations will always be rosy. I suffer from the same tinted glass view, the need to prove my thesis is correct.
ALP wants you to buy stock, he will give you good estimates.
Kyy has ego in being played out on this stock, bad memories, bad valuation.
CFO is in charge of the finances and cash flow, his estimates are based on his need to cover his ass from losses. He sold.
My valuation is based on whether I can get 20% growth continuously for the next 5 years, and risk I am willing to bear to hold the stock for multiple years through severe volatility.
I choose to sleep well at night.
>>>>>>>
lets not blindly discard the other side of the equation...the valuation part.
the balance weighing scale has two sides
01/01/2020 10:49 AM
01/01/2020 12:47 PM
X
SarifahSelinder The Vietnam IPP potential IRR % is predetermined
PRE DETERMINED!!!
No such potential IRR% no start the project
And the system works well thus far
PRE DETERMINED!!!
No such potential IRR% no start the project
And the system works well thus far
01/01/2020 12:56 PM
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 11 of 11 comments
bursa ada 999 counters giving angpau.
ada antara 999 counters kasih angpau yg lagi besar dr jaks. mungkin la.
2020-01-01 13:20
there are so many more companies with power-energy plays that have more certainty. why so much time spent on JAKS?? Go look at YTL power or Malakoff. You wont get scammed, or risk the business bankrupting.
Better reward, lower risk, same sector.
2020-01-01 13:42
CPECC has got larger shareholding ...so dia TAI KO ...with them at d helm ...JAKS with 30% ( + 10% prov.) can only UNTUNG kuat kuat !!! ...the former is a CHAMPION around d world lah ...more steady than an oil table ..literally !
2020-01-01 14:56
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SarifahSelinder Koon
Mudajaya’s coal power plant in India
Investors should look at how the Indian Government distribution system in the delaying the actual completion Mudajaya’s coal power plant in India.
31/12/2019 6:24 PM
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SarifahSelinder DK66
Do u know apa Sarifah is thinking about?
31/12/2019 6:25 PM
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SarifahSelinder Soalan nya
Why Mudajaya India IPP bite d dust?
Will JAKS Vietnam IPP suffer same fate?
Let's see.....
01/01/2020 8:22 AM
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SarifahSelinder DK66
Ada ka eventuality ni covered by d PPA of d Vietnam IPP?
The capacity payment?
01/01/2020 1:54 PM
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DK66 Sarifah,
Once the power plant achieved full COD, the capacity payment is mandatory even if the power plant is kept idle for whatever reasons so long as it isn't operator's fault. Mong Duong II was shut down by government for 5 months yet Mong Duong II was still profitable because of the capacity payment.
-------------------------------------
SarifahSelinder DK66
Ada ka eventuality ni covered by d PPA of d Vietnam IPP?
The capacity payment?
01/01/2020 1:54 PM
01/01/2020 1:57 PM
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SarifahSelinder Bagus tis d answer
01/01/2020 2:00 PM
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SarifahSelinder Koon salah lagi
X
01/01/2020 2:01 PM
SarifahSelinder Koon Mudajaya actually had proceeded to build its India IPP without signing PPA
Believe it or not??!!??
0 kosong business sense
2020-01-01 16:31
Why Vietnam govn still want to buy electricity from Laos? Jaks power plant possible delay to complete?
2020-01-12 11:33
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SarifahSelinder
Profit kat MID TEEN IRR u kira sendiri
2020-01-01 13:18