Don’t think you need worry about Philip. When the shares he bought and hold plummet is usually when he will use margin loan to average down. This has been working well for him in the past. In fact, if he’s holding the shares and sit there do nothing he would not earn much money

To be fair, Philip built his pchem portfolio (biggest position all the while) four years ago, so he has collected around 1.29/share dividend already. That reduce his cost below 7 (6.9), so right now he’s still above the current prices. I think his success on lowering down pretty much half of pchem holding cost attribute to his doubling down during the Covid crash with margin loan. Kudos for his transparency sharing his portfolio. However, I would still advise him to just stick to low cost index fund, as on date this portfolio has been tracked since 2019 it’s very clear that he’s not good in stock picking. He might time the bottom and sold higher prices to reduce cost.
but it’s obvious that stocks he had picked and stay on course, share prices have been underperforming the market.

Hi Tan KW, I am no.10 in 2020 stockpick.

My stock pick for 2023;

HARTA 10%
MI 10%
GHLSYS 10%
GENETEC 10%
JHM 10%
VIS 10%
AWC 10%
SCICOM 10%
YINSON 10%
KEINHIN 10%

Its not about the genuine of your portfolio that matters, but your stock pick's performance. Your 3 years 14% vs s&p 500 77% is somehow a misleading indicator because of your superb portfolio managing skill, averaging down with margin when they are plunging down and selling them at the high prices. Meanwhile you would get a 77% performance from s&p sitting still doing nothing, the results would be far more superior if you would have done the similar move with your portfolio


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Dec 19, 2021 4:01 PM | Report Abuse

Yes you are right.

Over the same period that I have started to track this portfolio the returns of sp500 is around 77%, while my portfolio had returned 55% over the same period and a 9% return in total dividend over the same investment amount. I have done over 14% worse over 3 years versus sp500, making it around 4+% every year of lower performance.

Did you buy sp500? It is not something I know well.

But one thing is true: I cannot prove this as I did not post any online portfolio since 2009. But there same period since 2009, sp500 only returns 432%, while my investment in QL and topglove and public bank and yinson topped 1000%.

Make of it what you will.

Dear mr tan,

Here is my pick for 2022
(am no.10 for 2020)

mi 10%
harbour 10%
cjcen 10%
pestech 10%
awc 10%
choobee 10%
pchem 10%
skpress 10%
yinson 10%
kesm 10%

Philip could be have done a lot better if he just bought s&p 500. Long term horizon the market beats this portfolio hands down

"SDHB’s contention that KPMG had failed and/or neglected to complete the audit report until and unless a 3rd party independent reviewer is being appointed and complete the findings as raised by KPMG. Ultimately in June 2021, KPMG had suddenly changed their stance."

This forum is full of people who can't even read statements but do a lot of talking.


The circumstances leading to the filing of the Writ of Summon and SOC by SDHB is based on SDHB’s contention that KPMG had failed and/or neglected to complete the audit report until and unless a 3rd party independent reviewer is being appointed and complete the findings as raised by KPMG. Ultimately in June 2021, KPMG had suddenly changed their stance.
SDHB contends that the findings raised by KPMG were not substantive in nature that warrants an independent review and that the issues faced by KPMG were entirely attributable to their own negligence in the course of the audit process.
At this juncture, SDHB is of the view that KPMG’s act of halting the audit process pending a 3rd party independent review was in the circumstances negligent as it would have delayed the preparation of the audit report and would under normal circumstances create unnecessary speculation in the market.
For the avoidance of doubt, the findings raised by KPMG has been announced on 28 May 2021.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToWmr1ZDFc4

For Najmat Al Maisan Technical Services LLC, is it really under ICT contract? On serba announcement it seems its under o&m segment: Provision of plant maintenance services, safety relief valve and other associated rotating equipment. add on services with ICT? Kpmg did not say Najmat Al Maisan is a fake company instead KPMG raised scepticism because Najmat Al maisan is not IT related company. Serba reply was that Natmaj is their sponsor's company who received contracts but doesn't have ict background. This is weird. I am also curious who have further studies on this?

https://www.thesundaily.my/business/serba-dinamik-secures-nine-foreign-contracts-BY5450663

thank you i3 for spreading fear, this is yummy

Tan KW @popo92

Refer to https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2021/2020-12-25-story-h15...
- Each participant cannot invest > 30% of capital on any single stock - Each selected company (include the mother stock and warrants) is limited to a maximum investment of RM 30,000

Please change your stock pick.
-------------------------------------------------------

Mr Tan, this is my latest stock selection to compliance with the rules.

Pchem 20%
Serbadk 20%
Serbadk-wa 10%
Gkent 30%
Mi 5%
Jaks 5%
Yinson 5%
Genm 5%

Thank you and sorry for the inconvenience causes.

Happy new year mr Tan and kudos to all the hard work organizing. I have decided to participate again for the second time. Here is my stock picks selection for 2021:

Pchem 20%
Serbadk 20%
Serbadk-wa 20%
Gkent 20%
Mi 5%
Jaks 5%
Yinson 5%
Genm 5%

#10 @2020, thank you.

hahaha good summary from sslee

i don't think MR.DIY worth 10billion in 5 years time IMO...

to be fair, i don't think choivo is a liar. i don't think he sold and con ppl. but he is definitely not qualify as an good investor by his own track record. who's to blame to buy based on someone opinion

update tguan bonus issues received 5900 units

update tguan dividend received 2sen @5900 units

update pchem dividend received 5sen @2700 units

update tguan dividend received 9sen @5900

To link tan teng boo with warren buffett, its totally an insult for warren buffett. tan teng boo is still stuck in cigarbutt approach, look at most companies he have bought in. Companies with declining business advantages, or even no moats at all. Which business he bought have a clear dominant position, or increasing competitive advantages, which have a good economic of scale? He also misinterpreting the meaning of what charlie had said the big money is from waiting, in fact tan teng boo is waiting for a crash by holding non productive assets: cash. He clearly don't understand the waiting by holding wonderful business at fair value, is way better than buying fair business at cheap price. And by looking at what his approach is, i see he is buying crappy business with cheap historical share price. He should be studying micro business rather than forecasting and trying to interpret macro economy..

yummy

1 billion market cap very soon

raider so hard sell promote, seriously?

apparently, he's in euphoria mood. maybe covid last 3 years or maybe it lasts forever. a trader only care if he's winning money and laughing to the bank. he doesn't care if there's any bubble forming because he's confident that he's not going to be the victim.

too many newbies waiting to get slaughtered, period.

cash cow engine start

everyone that stay long enough in i3 know calvin reputation.

Sslee sifu, investing in insas is not = investing in inari. You should treat insas like an investment company. Perhaps a berkshire hathaway kinda, right? I personally do not know where insas is heading all these years, i don't know for what good/bad reasons they are selling inari stakes recently but i do know they have not done any great investment like inari for quite a long time. You should be questioning them on agm for what reasons they want to list insas and sit on board getting paid.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Sslee haha,
Bad Inari quarter result coming. But what you expect with MCO Inari only allowed to operate with half the workforce.

Mfcb and Jaks are in different categories in my opinion. Mfcb have a 80% stake in their power plant, and jaks only have 30% minority stake on their 1200mw power plant. What Mfcb is dealing, water which is free but uncertainty is within how much god offers you. Its not difficult for me to choose a clearer partner whom i want to work with.

theory is in line with Vinh Tan 1 power plant, their deputy director also said they will be able to pay off all debts and start generating profits 18 years after the plant starts commercial operation.

Yorkyork, I am not worry. I am not interested to speculate by trading shares. I am just curious with their business culture and how they manage to handle problems. I am asking coz you seems the person in this industry. Am i asking the right guy to fulfil my curiosity?

Yorkyork sifu, I am more curious with installation part. Can they help clients to install using remote method? I expect they still can’t travel.

There will be no issues for TSMC at all since their foundry position is still irreplaceable. Is this applicable on advanced precision cleaning? Frontken can decide to expand us so can their competitors. Unless you believe inventories should grow a lot globally, splitting to two different regions will not be cost efficient for the rest supply chain players.

How can Frontken benefiting from TSMC building chip factory in us instead of taiwan? Frontken factory is in taiwan. Think twice.

Philip sifu, i am not interested with share price performance. Looking at StoneCo business, I do feel there's higher probability StoneCo might be able yank off brazil traditional bank. Even though until now I am not able to digest all the synergy between its acquisitions. Lately management do warn they are still growing but definitely not as fast as recent two years as their business is at mature stages. I do agree nevertheless StoneCo is still growing healthy without covid. Short term StoneCo is cutting off 20% workforce and trying to sell their loans to reduce cost. Mid term still depends on how the country economy can cooperate with covid. Long term its company core competence that matter. My previous question is actually on BRL side and brazil economy, both doesn't look good. Especially on currency itself it already depreciate roughly halve in a year. Zooming out 10 years, it is depreciating year by year at a fast pace. I know currency and macro are things that are beyond our control. But how's your view on this? Appreciate your insights.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > May 13, 2020 10:59 PM

For the short term, I have no idea what the markets will do or how stocks will perform. In fact, I managed to be the idiot who sells topglove at rm8 to buy stocks just when the share price jumped by 20% almost the next few days.

In the mid term, STONECO cash levels and business strategy will keep them afloat.

In the long term, I believe STONECO business model is a very very intrinsically strong model, which will be far more effective and customer centric than many of the incumbent Banks, which is a nightmare to navigate in Brazil.

Philip sifu, have the plunged of BRL affect your view on StoneCo? Do you still hold your view on StoneCo manage to continue its growth for the next few years?

DK66 sifu, thank you for your selfless sharing. That is very shrewd of you taking arbitrage between market price vs your valuation. For Harrison, TWS and Magnum did you started buying after you believe the offer valuation isn't fair and undervalue? That is very brave and shrewd actions that i wouldn't ever think to fight against. My own preference would be finding great if not wonderful business and wait more golden eggs to hatch as i am not very good to patiently wait for better price entry. I admire your boldness decisions and your thoroughly analysis that turns odd in your favour. I hope your investment on jaks turn out a fruitful one very soon.

Posted by DK66 > May 12, 2020 6:05 PM | Report Abuse


I started serious investing after the 2008 crisis. First I bought Harrison when it received a takeover offer of 1.25. One american aggressively bought 10% on the news. I knew it was too low so I bought at 1.20 and later sold at 4.

Then, I bought TWS at RM3 when MSM was taken from Robert Kuok. I knew the sugar price is going to rise. TWS has one of the only 2 sugar licences in Msia. TWS was later taken private at RM9.30.

About the same time I also bought Magnum when it was trying to relist its 4d business taken private few year ago. The relisting entailed CVC taking a stake in Magnum in exchange for its stake in the 4d business. Portion of the stakes must be place out to certain parties at the same price. Valuation of Magnum was kept at 8x PE, a low valuation to benefit certain parties. So, I bought at about RM2.20 and sold at RM4.10 before the listing of MPHB cap.

Then, I bought Dayang before the oil crisis at 1.40 but forced to cut off when the price fell back from RM4 to my cost.

Then, I bought Triplc on Jay's article. I went in at 1.50 and got back 1.95 thru distribution, and now waiting for the balance 1.00.

DK66 sifu, i am more interested to know more about your journey on investing. If i am not mistaken, last year i saw you wrote that JAKS is the only list in your portfolio. Can you share with me the portion of JAKS in your total wealth? a rough percentage will help a lot. I would love to learn more from your past investing counters too. You seems one who focus a lot. Appreciate if you would share with us.

Philip sifu, i had one account used to be tdameritrade USA too, but they transfer my account to tdameritrade sg now. Not sure why they didn't transfer yours but mine instead. I personally like thinkorswim trading platform better than IB. But most of my portfolio is with IB now as I am using IB margin facility which is incredibly cheap (below 1%). Also IB waived USD 10 monthly maintenance fees if our equity balances are more than USD 100k. I believe its not a problem for you as well.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > May 8, 2020 5:54 AM | Report Abuse

I only bought foreign stocks twice in the past 1 years. So I only paid 20 USD in commissions for 1 years.

Compare that to if I was with interactive brokers. Whether or not I bought stocks, if I did the same thing I would need to pay 120 USD in commissions or capacity payments even if I did not buy stocks at all.

For me as someone who only has 2 stocks in their portfolio ( both which do not pay dividends).

But one thing too be definitely sure of. The capital protection limit is the same 200k usd, so it might be a good idea to spread your accounts around to protect yourself.

In the end just get whatever makes you feel comfortable. But one thing I do not recommend, never overtrade. One of the big problems with new investors is that they buy and sell too many stocks, and they lose out of the hidden costs of trading.

IB system is designed to make you trade more.
Thinkorswim is more suitable for my investing style as I don't have to keep buying and selling every month. Last year when I bought stoneco I bought 200k shares in one afternoon. After that 1+ year of inactivity.

Fyi I use tdameritrade USA. Cheaper rates, not as low as IB, but acceptable for me.

Tdameritrade sg charges more than $10 commission per trade. I don’t see why it is a preference choice. Philip securities is a better choice than tdameritade as they offer multi markets with similar charges. IB has the most competitive margin rates I have encountered and their service center are prompted. Commission per trade are very competitive as well. Webull is one good choice too, in aspects they are quite close to IB. They offer free real data quote. Maybe Jon sifu can have a look with webull too

if hold = buy, it mean i am buying every single day...

Thanks for your inputs. I couldn't agree more with you that i like business model that is replicable and scalable too. Too bad capital intensive business usually are not attractive enough given that capital expenditures are require to just maintain its operation. It seems that you often look quite a big picture and ignore what investors can be excite with short to medium term earnings.

Philip sifu, thanks for your insight. I think they didn't focus much on property developers, but a limestone producer. They are the largest limestone producer by far in Malaysia. Anyway what catch me with mfcb is that 29million from Don sahong is derived from 35.1million revenue and that's without full capacity. If i got my calculation roughly correct i believe this coming quarter it should contribute 50million to 70 million from Don sahong, probably 100million when its a wet quarter. With these kind of cash flow seems paying its 746million borrowings isn't an issue, and it's an flexi USD loan that with fed rate now its reducing until less than 3% (saw an report it can save USD5million a year). Other than figures and probably weather that affect level of water, i feel I don't really understand much with this business very well at all. Could you share some views of yours that why its a riskier business? thank you in advance

Philip sifu, I believe you have missed out learning_investor question on mfcb. Can you share your insight on mfcb as well? Do you think it’s as risky as jaks in the moment? Appreciate if you could share your view on it.

DK66 sifu, this IFRIC 12 is actually introduced on 2008, but it doesn't adopted since lately years. So far i have not seen any BOT concession is still using straight-line method. Thank you for pointing out power plant asset cannot be recognised as concession asset under new international accounting standard. i didn't acknowledge that, could you send me any useful links for me to read? thank you

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

On depreciation, there is no clear indication that reducing balance method of amortisation should be used. Straight line method is still most widely adopted

"The most appropriate method of amortisation of the intangible asset is usually the straight-line method, unless another method better reflects the pattern of consumption of the asset’s future economic benefits. However, in some circumstances, where the expected pattern of consumption of the expected economic benefi ts is based on usage, it may be appropriate to use an alternative method of amortisation." - IFRIC 12

In any case, the new international accounting standard will not allow power plant asset to be recognised as "concession asset" anymore. The asset shall be recorded as Loan receivables and repayment will more or less reflect a straight line pattern.

icon8888 sifu, your assumptions on depreciation is very wrong. Depreciation costs are usually higher at first and decreasing year by year. suggest you may look for some info on IFRIC 12. Basically when factor in Depreciation & amortisation you will get a completely different figure, but i am not sure we can able to see them one day since jaks only have 30% minority stake in this power plant. Track record of integrity is not on the right side for jaks management.

I am very amazed by how fast this company can burn their cash...

i know there's too many ppl focus too much on macro side, they worry that demand of smartphones, tablets, laptops, pc and automotive will be affected by covid pandemic. it turns out tablets, laptops and pc are hot selling products during lockdown due to work at home approaches. You see we can't do well if we predict on macro side. Even most end products will be affected near short future most likely, it will not affected MI. It is industry nature itself that Mi's clients are doing capex prior demand. They look at what content 5G phones are bringing them even they foresee short term disruption. They also look up foundries tsmc and samsung inventories data. Supply chain disruption is a very short term effect that might not happened on mi at all too. Look at few years ahead where this company can goes, i personally feel this company culture are leading good by mr oh. how far and fat it can goes?

cash cow engine just start, 700m borrowings is just peanut to them now