Trading Beyond Market Rules

The Balancing Act - The Novice, The Juggler and The SharpShooter

SimonShuet
Publish date: Fri, 04 Mar 2016, 01:10 PM
Going for the limitless transition in trading and avoiding investment potholes.

We have gone through many pot holes, rough patches, dry spell to finally arrive at the well or some prefer the more deserving word of oasis. We had hope to arrive here much sooner but the vast desert and terrain preceeding it just made it all the difficult to reach our final destination. 

If we truly have gone through the long and winding road in hope of reaching the oasis, it may seem like heaven on earth upon arriving at the destination or maybe the first taste of the water may seem so. Once upon fulfilling this desire some may move on since they have decided that this is not the heaven they were looking for once they have quench that desire the rest may seem unfulfilling.

So what is this Heaven on Earth that we are looking for?? Its not only religion and believes! Its life fulfilment at its highest. Some prefer to decide after they see their desire fulfilled while others prefer to plan and are able to see their objective as fulfillment and there is also the third kind which are very rare who looks for many end objectives as their desire. The third has been classified as Billionaires' mentality. They never find a Heaven on Earth long enough to enjoy before their desire takes over. 

We always start as a Novice.  As a novice, we admire almost everything new, we learn and think the heaven of it.  We accept the mistake we make, we accept the money we lose though it may hurt, we accept it as the price to pay as a novice. It is when we pass this stage that defines us. This is when we know what we want and this is when the failures will really make us who we are and will become. For those who have been in despair due to the market recently, whether you are novice or experienced, treat this as a paid lesson to define you further especially if you are in your early 20s onwards. Just remember this, the lesson gets more painful when you are older especially if you make the same mistake.

Up till now, I have not mentioned the application of it. The idea is, all of what I mentioned is applicable in our everyday lives however as a novice in investment, you have to note some losses can be mitigated by expert financial advice.

Moving pass the novice level, we are now at the intermediate zone. This is where it is most crucial and will define you as a intermediate who knows more than a novice through experience or a A level intermediate. Some of the difference between intermediates are the ability to understand the fundamentals from an actual application viewpoint. Example: If you have followed some of my blog writing, you would have come across the term Buy rate which I use very frequently and the purpose and reading of buy rate with volume. On high level, many just use the term RSI to denote the strength of selling and buying. Many just classify "Overbought" or "Oversold" base on the 30 or 70 just to denote a possible turnaround or further decline without the fundamental understanding of how it works. It is not that straight forward (ref "Reading The Body Language of Market (Part 1 and 2)

I have use the term Juggler to describe intermediate investor because those who are good can juggle many items and juggle mixed items and differentiates them from those who can only juggle with fixed number of balls or pins for that matter. That defines the depth of the intermediate investors/traders.

A more affluent TA that i like to use is the ADX, DI+ and DI- to see the strength in the direction whether up or down.  The parameter are very easy to read where ADX measurement gives the strength of the direction shown by DI+ and DI-.  If DI+ is higher than DI-, it means incline trend however we need to ascertain how strong is the incline strength and for that we use the ADX.  Similarly DI- defines weakness in trend leading to decline and the trend strength is measured by ADX. This is all good but there is another factor which is not defined in this TA which will help you to decide whether a more likely bullish incline will happen. To be more accurate than the ADX and DI, you will need to know the rate of change. The rate of change here together with the buy rate will allow you to know and predict the movement of the market. HOW?

When a recovery of a price to incline is fast, eg. very quickly changes from buyer to seller price each time it declines, the recovery rate together with the buy rate will determine how fast and aggressive the incline will be. The faster the recovery the faster the incline. As shared in the other topic, buy rate can be manufactured. The idea here is to keep the buy rate at neutral during collection (ie  as close as possible to 50%) hence everytime a buyer queues and waits for seller to relents, This is to ensure they dont arouse suspicion unless they deliberately wants it to be known.  If the transaction goes through, the buy rate will drop. The more seller relent to buyer/s' price, the buy rate will drop. At that point the buyer will try to buy at seller price to maintain the buy rate closer to 50%. Therefore when this happens, and the price does not move or may even go down. (I have also shared when buy rate and price go up together with volume what it means - ref to -"Reading The Body Landguage of Market")

Finally when we use the above together with the readings of Gainers, Losers, Unchange, and Untraded, a wealth of more information will surface. For one, Gainers and Losers ratio tells a big part of the story together with Untraded. The most desirable situation is maximum participation (ie Untraded at the lowest) with Gainers above 64% vs Losers with little at Unchange level. When this happens, KLCI will definitely be Bullish and you dont have to guess which type of stocks  (bluechips, penny stocks, sectors etc) contributing to it.

 

At this point, we can read the Body Language of The Market to a certain extend. We can read the critical TA and decide with a manual method for a captured time accuracy.  We know that also the end-of-day analysis (charts and indicators) maybe better for investor than traders and system alert (if you are using a particular system) will provide a wholesome approach (ie alert with supporting indicators) 

For a traders game, the reliability on accuracy is paramount. While a system may help filter out the potential counters going through its criteria, the manual method I have shared provides further accuracy above it.  Being a Sharpshooter requires all the tools that I have mentioned however reading the indicators and interpreting them correctly is key.

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Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 4 of 4 comments

julian

I want to be a sharpshooter. I start practice ok

2016-03-05 14:46

Jinggo_Joe

I learn a lot from your write up. Pls keep up. I follow all your rebound call, you stock, you market call. Superb!1000 like

2016-03-05 14:54

Geraldliew

Tq for sharing

2016-03-06 07:21

SimonShuet

Market at 1700 and many panic selling in line with the streghthening of ringgit for export stocks.

2016-03-07 10:28

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