Sslee blog
6 months, 12 months and 18 months ROI contest part II
Dear all,
Result for the 6 Months ( 15 June 2023 - 15 Dec 2023) ROI contest
| Price (RM) | Dividend | Price (RM) | ROI | ||
| Stock | 15/6/2023 | (RM) | 15/12/2023 | % | |
| OTB | YTLPOWER | 1.290 | 0.035 | 2.460 | 93.41% |
| calvintaneng | JAYATIASA | 0.645 | 0.017 | 0.915 | 44.50% |
| Philip | HARTA | 2.230 | 2.690 | 20.63% | |
| Felix888 | ARMADA | 0.440 | 0.510 | 15.91% | |
| Study1 | PCHEM | 6.250 | 0.080 | 7.150 | 15.68% |
| 3iii | PBB | 3.850 | 0.090 | 4.310 | 14.29% |
| income | TOMEI | 1.080 | 1.220 | 12.96% | |
| Stony | CAPITALA | 0.800 | 0.860 | 7.50% | |
| Choivo | TIMECOM | 5.100 | 0.163 | 5.280 | 6.72% |
| Sslee | INSAS | 0.835 | 0.890 | 6.59% | |
| StartOfTheBull | MSC | 2.020 | 0.070 | 2.010 | 2.97% |
| speakup | CMSB | 1.060 | 1.070 | 0.94% | |
| Study2 | PETRONM | 4.980 | 4.550 | -8.63% | |
| qqq47660 | DNEX | 0.520 | 0.395 | -24.04% |
| EPS for last 4 quarters | NAPS | Price/NAPS | PE annualized | ||||
| Stock | Sen | Sen | Sen | Sen | RM | past 2 quarter | |
| YTLPOWER | 2.45 | 6.41 | 13.95 | 10.47 | 2.190 | 1.1233 | 5.037 |
| JAYATIASA | 5.10 | 1.05 | 6.21 | 6.90 | 1.510 | 0.6060 | 3.490 |
| HARTA | -0.93 | -8.86 | -1.54 | 0.81 | 1.350 | 1.9926 | -184.247 |
| ARMADA | 3.56 | 3.40 | 2.01 | 3.00 | 1.000 | 0.5100 | 5.090 |
| PCHEM | 6.00 | 7.00 | 8.00 | 5.00 | 4.970 | 1.4386 | 27.500 |
| PBB | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.34 | 8.76 | 2.741 | 1.5722 | 12.602 |
| TOMEI | 7.25 | 8.56 | 12.28 | 7.35 | 2.890 | 0.4221 | 3.107 |
| CAPITALA | 6.20 | 1.40 | 27.50 | -4.30 | -2.000 | -0.4300 | 1.853 |
| TIMECOM | 6.66 | 6.23 | 123.08 | 5.78 | 2.220 | 2.3784 | 2.049 |
| INSAS | 7.20 | 3.78 | 5.02 | 2.98 | 3.560 | 0.2500 | 5.563 |
| MSC | 6.20 | 8.40 | 6.80 | 2.80 | 1.760 | 1.1420 | 10.469 |
| CMSB | 2.99 | 3.96 | 2.45 | 0.93 | 2.990 | 0.3579 | 15.828 |
| PETRONM | -7.90 | 40.30 | 14.80 | 30.33 | 8.810 | 0.6300 | 5.041 |
| DNEX | 1.01 | -7.60 | 1.51 | 0.42 | 0.580 | 0.6810 | 10.233 |
If you look into the top 2 ROI winners, the reason for both of them to outperform others is present of Earning Growth Catalyst.
For YTLPOWER, please welcome i3 new blogger on the block dragon328 for his many write-up on YTL on below link.
Dragon Leong blog
Author: dragon328 | Latest post: Wed, 6 Dec 2023, 12:13 PM
A path to hidden gems in Bursa
His write-up reminded me of Choivo Capital style of long-long quantitative analysis (Past, present and future facts and figures) plus Philip style of long-long qualitative analysis (Past, present and future story-telling)
As for Jayatiasa, the increase in production of FFB for the past 2 quarters in comparison to Year to Year growth and Quarter to Quarter seasonal growth.
Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT)
Quarter end 30 Sept 2023
359,740.00
Quarter end 30 Sept 2022
263,948.00
Quarter end 30 June 2023
224,649.00
Quarter end 30 Sept 2023
359,740.00
Quarter end 30 Sept 2022
263,948.00
Quarter end 30 June 2023
224,649.00
Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT)
Quarter end 30 June 2023
224,649.00
Quarter end 30 June 2022
188,400.00
Quarter end 31 March 2023
190,360.00
Quarter end 30 June 2023
224,649.00
Quarter end 30 June 2022
188,400.00
Quarter end 31 March 2023
190,360.00
Fresh Fruits Bunches (MT)
Quarter end 31 March 2023
190,360.00
Quarter end 31 March 2022
151,243.00
Quarter end 31 Dec 2022
264,967.00
Quarter end 31 March 2023
190,360.00
Quarter end 31 March 2022
151,243.00
Quarter end 31 Dec 2022
264,967.00
Note:
Month Oct 2023 FFB Production (MT): 132,551.00
Month Nov 2023 FFB Production (MT): 114,287.00
For local CPO price you can refer below link
Month 2023: Month average CPO price (RM):
Jan: 3,922.00
Feb: 3,908.00
Mar: 4,159.50
Apr: 4,217.50
May: 3,795.50
Jun: 3,525.00
Jul: 3,897.00
Aug: 3,805.00
Sep: 3,727.00
Oct: 3,640.00
Nov: 3,700.50
Dec:
As of Hartalega is turnaround play:
More articles on Sslee blog
CapitalA: Follow up email on “increase effective stake from 40% to 100% in Philippine Air Asia”
Created by Sslee | Sep 09, 2023
Follow up email to Bursa “A Happy Hari Merdeka Malaysia August 31 2023”
Created by Sslee | Aug 31, 2023
i3admin please take action on Mikecyc abusive and cyber sexual harassment comment
Created by Sslee | Jun 13, 2023
Hengyuan: Follow up questions on HRC response to my whistle blowing questions
Created by Sslee | Jun 11, 2023
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments
Insas is unreasonable undervalued.
At RM 0.89
The price/NAPS is 0.25
PE based on annualized last two quarter EPS is 5.563
2023-12-16 10:35
What can we conclude from 6 months ROI study are:
1. In short term the ROI favour present of Earning Growth Catalyst (EPS sudden increase due to increase favorable production/products price)
2. Beaten down stocks that start to turnaround.
2023-12-16 11:16
Quote from dragon328's report.
YTL Power should rise from current RM1.30 in May 2023 to RM5.00 level by Mar 2025.
The timing of Mar 2025 should be right as by then:
1) PowerSeraya should continue to report strong earnings due to tight supply (Keppel new plant only comes in 1H 2026)
2) Wessex will have its new water tariffs adjusted up substantially for the new 5-year regulatory period due to its enlarged RAB and to compensate the high interest rates it is suffering these 2 years from a higher WACC
3) 1st phase green data centre should have been up and running contribution new earnings stream
4) digital bank business should find its footing after 1 year of operations
5) more visibility in power export timeline to Singapore.
------------------------------
My comments :-
1.) I believe Wessex should be in profit position in 2025.
2.) Green data centre should make profit in 2025.
3.) 5G YES - should be in profit position in 2024.
I believe the EPS for FY 2024 is = 0.42, take a PER=10, the target price of YTLPower should hit 4.20 in FY 2024.
I also believe the EPS for FY 2025 is = 0.50, take a PER=10, the target price of YTLPower should hit 5.00 in FY 2025.
My 2 cents comment only.
The final decision to buy is always yours.
Thank you.
2023-12-16 11:57
Wow, I never expected to beat my Sslee Sir in the competition above. Let’s see next year 2024 results.
2023-12-19 14:28
Stock: [SAPNRG]: SAPURA ENERGY BERHAD
Contract Amendment 9/6/2023
Bon888 requested to change the ID to Felix888. Referee Approved and Signed.
Ladies and Jantanman the Janda Sapura finally ada satu competition between the Promoter Bon888 and Penkritik Bobby. They have decided to accept the term and condition to compete for the next 9 mths. Whoever win one can stay back and the loser has to get lost from Janda Sapura forum. You both cannot change the term until the 9 mths ended and Referee will announce the result 9 mths from today 8/6/2023.
Bon888 the Challenger as long as Janda Sapura hit 7sen will be the winner
Bobby as long Bon888 failed to make Janda Sapura 7 sen within the 9 months Bobby will be the winner.
The rest spectators want to support participant also can add your name you sapot siapa.
1 month ago
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Sslee
I am disappointed with Insas for not increasing the dividend payout. I will wait for the publication of AGM key matter discussed at Insas website before sending in AGM follow up questions.
2023-12-16 10:31