The 1994 Investor
Uchitec – Too cheap to ignore
The1994Investor
Publish date: Thu, 25 Feb 2021, 11:32 PM
The1994Investor
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Fundamental, Prospects for growth, value | Long term horizon
Since our initial coverage of UCHI back in January 2021, UCHI’s share price has increased steadily to a 52-week high of RM3.10.
In this article, we digest and provide an update on UCHI’s latest quarterly results.
UPDATE ON LATEST QUARTER (OCT – DEC) RESULTS
Compared to the previous quarter, the Group’s revenue increased strongly by 32%, while its net profit increased by RM8.6m or 36%.
The stronger performance is mainly due to the increase in demand for the Group’s products and services, which we believe were partly backlogs brought forward from the earlier quarters.
Profitability increased closely in tandem with the rise in revenue. The healthier margins is principally due to better economies of scale achieved from higher revenue/production.
UPDATE ON FY2020 (JAN – DEC) RESULTS
Despite the decrease in revenue, the Group recorded a 8.5% increase in operating profit for the year ended 31 December 2020, from RM75.8 million to RM83.5 million.
The improvement is attributed to:
- Decrease in average fixed and variable costs, and
- Increase in net fair value gain on derivative financial instruments of RM2.0 million (net fair value gain on derivative financial instruments was RM0.6 million in 2019)
Overall, we view the Group favorably for being able to sustain its 2019 revenue while showing a strong profit, despite the pandemic.
CORPORATE UPDATES
There were no major news / developments on the Group since our initial coverage.
VALUATION UPDATES
With reference to UCHI’s latest quarter results and a brief guidance provided by the Management on its FY2021 performance, we have made slight adjustments to our projection on UCHI’s FY2021 full year results, as below.
Assumptions:
| Previous | Revised | Reasons |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth rate assumed between 5% – 10% | Revenue growth rate assumed to remain between 5% – 10%. However, base case growth rate was revised downwards from 10% to 5%. | Management guided in the latest announcement that they are expecting low single digit growth for FY2021. |
| GP Margin assumed between 67.5% – 68.5% | GP Margin assumed to improve to a range of 69% – 73%. | Better clarity from the latest quarter result. |
| Operating margin assumed between 46.2% – 47.0% | Operating margin assumed to improve to a range of 50.6% – 53.7% |
Better clarity from the latest quarter result. Better economies of scale. |
| Income from deposits and investments assumed around RM5mil p.a. | Assumed income from deposits and investments revised to around RM4.8mil p.a. | Better clarity from the latest quarter result, and taking into consideration the low interest rate environment. |
| Net margin assumed to range between 47.3% – 47.9%. | Net margin assumed to improve to a range of 51.4% – 54.2%. | Improved GP margins and better cost control. |
At RM3.10, the market is valuing UCHI at 16.0x PE on our base-case assumption that UCHI will generate RM86.9m profit in FY2021 (FY2020 net profit was RM83.8m).
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments
used to be a goreng stock during the dot.com boom now just merely a good dividend paying counter
2021-02-25 23:52
it has way superior margin compared to Vitrox and generous dividend payout
even growth..what makes one think that it cant match vitrox?
2021-02-25 23:55
Vitrox and Uchitec is not in the same category.
Uchitec is EMS player
Vitrox is ATE player.
Their biz are unique and serve different customers.
Get your facts right.
I suggest all of you here to go and study OSAT and semicon players.
Then you can understand the entire value chain.
2021-02-26 11:04
You mean ATE player will be able to grow significantly easier than EMS?
thanks for the info, being non electronics engineer its a little difficult for me to grasp all these
but you are right...one need to understand the differences
Posted by newbie8080 > Feb 26, 2021 11:04 AM | Report Abuse
Vitrox and Uchitec is not in the same category.
Uchitec is EMS player
Vitrox is ATE player.
Their biz are unique and serve different customers.
Get your facts right.
I suggest all of you here to go and study OSAT and semicon players.
Then you can understand the entire value chain.
2021-02-26 16:57
the1994investor...please write an article why vitrox valuation vs uchitec is as such
further your blog address cannot be shared in i3 as it has numerical value on its url
it would be good if you can change that for future sharings
2021-02-26 21:33
ASIAN COFFEE CONSUMER TREND
...........................
In Asia, following the global trend, the number of commerciale stablishments serving specialty type coffee has multiplied in major business and entertainment hubs. As an example, JURA observes an uptrend in Asia’s general public awareness and interest in gourmet coffee and an increased knowledge and preference for specialty coffee machines. Although JURA’s percentage sales in Asia is low (total of 2%), the region’s sales are growing at an average of over 30% per annum. This sustained growth indicates that the region is becoming increasingly important for JURA.
JURA in CHINA
.............
Subsidiary background and current situation JURAhas had a presence in Japan,Hong Kong,Taiwan and South EastAsia (via Singapore) eversince the mid-1990s.The company partnered with a dominantHong Kong coffee shop chain operator and coffee productsretailerin 1997.This partnership insured JURA’sreach into the Hong Kong market that has a large number of foreign expatriates, international corporate offices and small to mid size commercial outlets. In 2000,JURA’s Hong Kong distributor requested exclusive distributorship on Mainland China. At the end of 2000, JURA officially authorized its Hong Kong partner to distribute on the Mainland. However, after commissioning professional market inquiriesin China in 2002,JURA realized that it was not efficient to distribute on the Mainland through Hong Kong.With the support of a local Swiss consulting network in Shanghai,JURA decided to appoint another distributor to manage the direct distribution in China market.
2021-02-27 15:24
FACT 1: REVENUE MAIN DRIVER (HOME USE SALES)
............................
http://swisscenters.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Jura.pdf
JURA’s core business is centered on high-end fully automatic coffee machines for home and commercial use, with home use sales representing about 70% of the total.
JURA’s entire product range is characterized by exceptional design, user-friendly control functions and the ultimate coffee taste quality.
(70% of Uchitec revenue is from Jura)
FACT 2: THE WORST IMPLICATION IS OVER IN 2020 (OUTSIDE HOME DEMAND)
...............................................
https://coffeebi.com/2020/11/03/the-future-of-coffee-away-from-home/
At the end of 2020 in Italy, an average drop in value of 45% is expected in coffee consumption away from home. Compared to other major countries, the very restrictive, initial policies that led to the complete suspension of activities for several months, will have a greater impact on HORECA, while the decrease in consumption in the office will be slightly more contained than the European average.
In Spain, the decrease in coffee sales will be close to 50%, while in France, the initial, more permissive policies regarding closures and opening hours have slowed down the decrease in consumption within HORECA. The drop in consumption in the office will have the greatest impact on the annual trend of the away-from-home market (-48.1%), due to large-scale remote working.
The coffee market in Germany is the largest in Europe. In 2019, the consumption of coffee away-from-home recorded a 2.5% increase in value, with an even greater increase in the office segment. In 2020, the reduction in consumption is expected to be 41% in value. The loss will be greater in the office segment, due to the strict home-working policies adopted, while HORECA has been affected by restrictive, regional regulations and also as a result of the increase in takeaway coffee sales.
Despite the uncertainty related to “Brexit”, the coffee market away from home in the UK continued to grow until 2019 (+ 2.9% in value). In 2020, restrictions on the operation of many facilities are expected to have resulted in a 42.7% reduction in coffee consumption outside the home. The greatest losses will be recorded in the offices, while the decrease in sales in the HORECA industry will be partially mitigated by the widespread use of take-away coffee and by the increase in delivery services.
FACT 3: THE NEW DEMAND (HOME USE) HAD SPIKED & WILL SUSTAIN GOING FORWARD & ADDED WITH RECOVERY FROM OUTSIDE HOME
.......................................
https://perfectdailygrind.com/2020/11/how-covid-19-changed-home-coffee-consumption/
The Rise In Home Coffee Consumption
...................................
Out-of-home coffee consumption, such as in cafés and restaurants, makes up around 25% of total consumer demand for coffee. So, when some 95% of these businesses closed in early 2020, temporarily or permanently, the coffee industry took a tremendous hit.
“We have seen an increase in grinder sales, and it’s the most substantial increase that we have had in any six-month period. We are up 70% since Covid-19 started,” Joyce tells me.
Trends Within Home Coffee Consumption
.....................................
So, now we know that home coffee consumption has increased during Covid-19 – but what have consumers bought?
Firstly: coffee. Amid concerns the supply chain was struggling with Covid-19, around one in four people in the US reported stockpiling coffee to avoid running out. During the pandemic, 27% of home brewers reported drinking brewed coffee at home, while 25% used pod or capsule machines.
Most people have stated that they are still using the same equipment and coffee products that they had before the pandemic. However, people are trying new things. It was reported that just over 40% of millennials stated that they have experimented with different brewing methods.
Consumers are also becoming more confident in their coffee-making capabilities, with two-thirds stating that they have “perfected” their recipes and techniques. This makes sense – with more time at home and out of the office, coffee drinkers have more space to to repeat and refine a target recipe.
However, some coffee drinkers still seek convenience, despite having more time at home. Sales of bulk cold brew and iced lattes rose by 129% throughout the first few months of the pandemic, and recent forecasts show that the ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee market is expected to keep increasing. It is anticipated that it will be worth a staggering US $42 billion by 2027.
2021-02-27 15:27
ROE high,low PE ,old brand tecnology company with stable profit ,cash rich ,high divident yeild ...
uncle roger oso shout HAIYAH RM4 pun tak sampai ....
2021-03-02 16:19
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thank you, i wonder why cant it be another Vitrox
2021-02-25 23:49