Introduction

With 2024 gone, 2025 promises a new and prosperous year especially to Bitcoiners!   

KLCI Review

Unfortunately, the KLCI index has not performed well.  At the start of 2025, it printed a Bull Trap, and then promptly went down to break the key 200-day EMA, to produce a "lower low".   The index is presently trading at 1566.72, nearly 5% in red.  There's a stock market saying - what goes in January decides the rest of the year - if KLCI trades in red, perhaps the rest of the year may not be too kind to Bursa stock traders.

Looking forward, honestly, it is difficult to be optimistic about Bursa.  First, you have to be an incredibly good stock picker.  If Bursa is down 5% and you are flat, that is already a very good return, but making nothing from Bursa is not a nice feeling.  I anticipated this back in Q3 last year and I decide to take the easier route, which is to cash everything in Bursa, and then, move to the US and crypto markets.  My thinking then was if you find a strong market that makes 30% and you are a lousy trader who under-perform the market by 5%, at least, you still make 25% instead of nothing!   The goal is simply to find strong markets and earn market returns.   Bitcoin is one of those strong markets (see more below).   

My US Portfolio Review

My US portfolio here is the much larger portfolio than the RM147,000 crypto account that I previously shared in another chatgroup.   That crypto account is nearly 10% returns in January.   Disclaimer - I am an average crypto trader in that account, the reason I'm positive is because the markets I trade is positive.

A disclaimer - this portfolio is extremely volatile, because I changed strategy to be quite heavy on Bitcoin, Bitcoin related ETF and stocks, using both stocks, ETFs and Options to provide some leverage.  This reflects my conviction that Bitcoin is about to enter into a new highs after the recent small consolidation when it hit a new $108k high.  However, to ride such a large account up and down by more than 20% swing in a matter of days requires a rather "strong" hand that does not panic.   

My advice to fellow Bursa stock traders?

Don't ignore Bitcoin.   Study Bitcoin and try to understand why it went from below 1 cent back in 2009, to over $100,000 in 2024.

The critical question is - why did Bitcoin price keep rising higher and higher for 15 years?

Critics dismissed Bitcoin because they said it is "Tulip-mania" - but think critically - did Tulip-mania lasts 15 years?  Did it even last 2 years?  After crashing, did Tulip mania then recovered to make new all time highs for 15 years?  What about Bitcoin - after crashing 80% from 60k+ down to 16k+, how did Bitcoin then went on to be trading $100k+ today?   Ask these critical questions. 

My thesis to you is that this 80% crash is not a setback to run away from like Tulip mania - those are FUD.  Instead, my thesis to you is this 80% crash is a wonderful "setup".  Research further.

So, recently just a week plus ago, Bitcoin crashed below $88k.  A lot of critics were shorting on the Internet.  Youtubes claimed victory to have identified the shorts.  Unfortunately for all the shorts who didn't close their positions, Bitcoin bounced back strongly to cause all of them to lose monies.  

When it fell to $88k, the shorts incorrectly thought it was a "setback" for the longs.  I and a few others instead thought it was an "opportunity".    To me, every drop deserves to add more monies.   And to be honest, 20% drop is small, I could keep adding up to 80% drop.   It is business as usual drop and is good enough to make even more monies.  (I also had other thesis like this time could be different with the entries of institutionals, Trump, Republicans, new BSR, etc. etc. etc.).

Recent Malaysia's Bitcoin News

For a long time, in the old chatgroup, I seemed to be the only person leading the talk on Bitcoin, which grew boring ... 

And I started to notice some FUDs .... so, I decided to leave as I didn't find it beneficial to my own trading account if I keep staying there as there is lack of curious minds but quite the opposite - I feel, rightly or wrongly, there are too many closed and silent minds there.  

Nevertheless, this is Malaysia today, so, nothing new in Malaysian's chatgroups.   Too many Malaysians wants free things but doesn't want to give back in return.  It is relatively easy to join Discord globally with many like minded people, it is interesting to be in different chatgroups where for once you are not the main person to talk and so many sharings ...  Despite being in my late 50s, I am fortunate to still be able to learn new things like AI and Crypto and new markets in the US.

Nevertheless, quite pleased to read about Malaysian news on Bitcoin here recently!

Here are some links to our very own Malaysian PMX on Bitcoin and Digital assets regulations, etc.  Not much is said, but I find it encouraging that at least, we made it to the news!  This can only improve going forward!

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2025/01/1162643/malaysias-crypto-game#google_vignette

https://www.cryptoninjas.net/news/malaysia-mulls-crypto-policy-a-bold-move-or-a-missed-opportunity/

https://www.gadgets360.com/cryptocurrency/news/malaysia-crypto-blockchain-policies-uae-binance-adsw-2025-7496029

How should we think about Bitcoin?

Before you even invest a single sen into Bitcoin (and quite likely, some of you will not listen to me), I would urge you to study carefully, this 15 year price chart on Bitcoin and ask some serious questions, because to me, this is a once in a lifetime - in fact once in human race history - opportunity.  You may not get a second chance with Bitcoin, if you miss the next 10 years in Bitcoin.

My questions are:

1. Why did Bitcoin price rise, and rise and rise for 15 continuous years?

2. Why after Bitcoin crashed 80% in the past several times, it then made a new high eventually, and then keep making new highs?

3. Critics dismissed Bitcoin as euphoric, but did Tulip made new highs again like Bitcoin very shortly after it crashed 80%?  (Ignore such critics who never helped you make monies off the markets).

Back to Basics

It is good to always go back and ask the basic fundamental questions and ground yourself on facts.  Here's what I know about Bitcoin.

1. Bitcoin prices are determined by Supply and Demand over at least 248 exchanges around the world.  (Google - https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/).

2. The Bitcoin Demand is Global, not limited to 33 milllion Malaysians but 8.2 billion world population.  To date, estimates vary but there are anywhere from 67 million Bitcoiners to 500 million Bitcoiners in the world.  There are no barriers to anyone in any country wanting to buy Bitcoin - all they need is funds, Internet access and recently, pass easy but tighter regulations by governments to KYC (know your customer).  A word of advice - you want to own things that is demanded by everyone on earth.

3. Bitcoin Supply is limited, by design, global supply can never exceed 21 million BTC (Bitcoin coins).  To date, nearly 20 million have already been mined, leaving another 1 million left to be mined over the next 115 years (the last Bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140).  

4. Bitcoin price keeps running higher and higher, because of one simple reason - Demand outstrip Supply causing price to rise.  So, you must ask the critical question - why is Demand outstripping supply over the past 15 years and is that likely to stop or continue?

5. Bitcoin price crashed 80% in the past because temporarily, Supply outstrips Demand.  How could this supply be bigger?  The short answer is weak hands - they succumb to FUD, they then sell at a loss and sell at any price.  

6. Bitcoin price makes new highs after 80% crash because Demand outstrip Supply again. How could it do this with greater force to make new highs?  Short answer - the demand is always higher, except this time, the weak hands have already exited at a loss.

Once you ground yourself on this big picture, and then, compare that with the Price Action the past 15 years, I could not unsee what I had already seen in terms of global demand for Bitcoin.  It is unmistakeable.  Bitcoin adoption is rising globally, is widespread across countries, and unstoppable.    Prices do not double 23 times over 15 years, if global demand is not rising.  The recent consolidation pattern suggests that we will soon see a breakout again.

How do you take advantage of this?

Critics typically don't teach you how to take advantage of their sharings.  Instead, their sharings tend to be boasting for self-indulgence, wins they had before in the past, yada yada yada ... (boring).

I will show you how to take advantage of Bitcoin.  It is so simple, even my kids knows about this. My advice is a simple one.  

DCA (Dollar Cost Average) but make sure you are a strong hand (who can hold through 80% crash) and not a weak hand.  Weak hands always lose eventually.

To become a strong hand, don't mix around FUDs, negative people or critics - they will only weaken your hand, which is not going to help you.  Instead, reach out to like-minded people, who will support you in your Bitcoin journey but still ground themselves off the facts.   Always ground yourself on facts and fundamentals.   

To really understand Bitcoin fundamentals, you need to put aside your stock valuation hat, because Bitcoin is not a stock.  Yes, it doesn't have earnings nor revenues, just like the US Dollar or the Ringgit and it will never have earnings and revenues.  However, the hat you have to put is a Supply and Demand hat and it's value rests on its network value, its decentralized value, its transparent Blockchain/ledger value, it's immutability, it's limited supply value / storage of value, its ability to do away with fiats, central banks, banks who act as leeches and rent seekers who sucks fees off you, etc.  There are so many values in Bitcoin, it is worth much more than just $100,000.  Even $1,000,000 price tag is too low.

In other words, to think properly about Bitcoin, you have to put on a different hat.  If you always use a hammer, everything looks like a nail, but Bitcoin requires you to use a different tool.  Otherwise, you can't see it and by the time decades passed, your children and grandchildren will ask you - how could you have missed this once in a human race opportunity? 

So, just like fiat currencies printed on paper, or Gold, the value of Bitcoin is not measured by its lack of ability to generate earnings or dividends, but is measured by the price agreed between the Seller and the Buyer for other reasons.  Read widely - e.g. it is not dissimilar to how Gold commands a rising value over time (albeit Gold is a weak form of storage of value).   Do your own homework.   Read books on Bitcoin.  Open your mind.  Try to understand the explanations by the authors.  Watch. Study. Learn.  Ask why a lot.

Worth adding that if in the past, the best vehicle to do DCA is the S&P500, then, today, the best vehicle IMHO to do DCA is Bitcoin.

Why?  Because both will always make new highs, except Bitcoin has higher volatility, Bitcoin crashes much more often and crashes harder than S&P500, so, DCA will mathematically end up better for Bitcoin than S&P500.  I have no doubt, global demand for Bitcoin will only rise over the next decade.

And you cannot apply traditional Technical Analysis trading skills to Bitcoin - those who tried to short Bitcoin as it "breaks down" found themselves being stopped out and incur losses.  Unless your are a 24/7/365 robot - then the robot is far more disciplined than you are as a human trader.  The robot never makes trading mistakes and never misses an opportunity.   

So, for human beings, Bitcoin will more likely reward the HODLers i.e. the steady DCA (Dollar Cost Averagers) who ignores TA and just keep adding and stacking as price falls and ignores FUD.

And to make sure you are a strong hand, make sure you find the answer to this question - why would the global demand for Bitcoin keep rising in future?  Can you see the clear catalysts coming?  Spend 100 hours searching for this and I guarantee you - you will see many catalysts coming up.

Why Bitcoin and not other cryptos?  

Today, my short answer here is to quote Michael Saylor.

"There is no 2nd Best".   

Summary and Conclusion

There is no 2nd Best.

Good luck.  (You don't really need it with Bitcoin ... you just have to have a strong hand and a sound DCA strategy).

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