Based on RM2 Billion projects, is it a BIG Surprise for the Q4 16 performance?

Let us go through the Quarterly Performance as below:

                                                                 Table 1

From the table 1 ,

1)The Aluminium sector revenue and segment profit is only 17.1 and 5.39 million respectively.

2)The construction sector revenue and segment profit is only 15.18 and 2.77 million respectively

Again, Let us go back to the Project contracts obtained in 2016 as per table below

                                                                      Table 2

From the table 2, 

1)The projects obatained  after June 16 (generally Aug 16 and onward) is not considered in Q4 16 revenue,

   there is total RM1.5 billion sales, where  there are 2 Big projects value at RM600 mil and RM750 mil (highlighted 

   in Green)

2)Based on above assumption, the estimated Aluminium and Construction revenue vs actual in Q4 16 as below

                     Table 3 

From the above table, there are approximately RM35 million unbilled sales.

Now, let us calculate the average % Net Profit vs Revenue as below                             

                                            Table 4

From the Table 2 and Table 4, we estimate the Q1 17 Revenue, Net Profit and EPS as per  table below

                                           Table 5

Based on the estimation, the EPS for Q1 17 Vs Q1 16 should around or above 28%.

Wow, although the estimated EPS is not fanstatic, but logically should above Q1 16 value. 

Above estimation based on assumption made as below:

1)No Change in Projects Contract Value

2)Projects and billing is execute accordingly as per schedule

3)Any impairment loss is ignored, especially in this analysis.

Remarks

1)Reveiw of the performance of the Company (Q4 16 Vs Q4 15)

2)Prospect for 2016

3)MIDF Research for Vivocom

4)The author only share the information, it is not a buy or sell call.