阿弟说投资
【阿弟】巴菲特說股價合情，有根據嗎？
Adi_Investor
Publish date: Wed, 04 Oct 2017, 10:50 AM
Adi_Investor
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我业余时，替《阿弟说投资》telegram GROUP的会员，做经济周期分析，以及投资趋势的建议、谘询、教育、理財等等。
投资以长期趋势为主，根据趋势的判断哪类资产该买，哪类该卖？再配合适当的交易策略。
这些资产如：股票、债券、房产、黄金等。
目前出版教人如何step by step投資股票的書－－《股票真智慧》
Wechat ID: pigboy1
Email: kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com
投资以长期趋势为主，根据趋势的判断哪类资产该买，哪类该卖？再配合适当的交易策略。
这些资产如：股票、债券、房产、黄金等。
目前出版教人如何step by step投資股票的書－－《股票真智慧》
Wechat ID: pigboy1
Email: kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com
巴菲特說目前股價合情，有根據嗎？
巴菲特週二告訴 CNBC 說，以利率水準而言，美國股價應屬合情合理。
(美國股市本益比用Shiller PE Ratio計算，是30.9倍)
他說，在股價中，利率是強而有力的因素。
沒錯！利率的確影響股價。
不過如果我在場，我會問巴菲特，你認為現在的利率合理嗎？
下圖是美國百多年的１０年期國債利率走勢。
你認為現在利率是合理？還是過度高估？尤其對比美國當前債務的情況下......
如果利率本身就不合理，那股市當前價格，又怎麼會是合理呢？
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
fung9815
If the interest rate in the US was 2.3% 20 years ago, they might have seen 20% inflation back then; today they are having 2.3% interest rate but inflation is only 1.9%.
Not saying that inflation will not eventually go up, but we are living in a tech-driven low inflation era. Unless inflation rate shoots up substantially, we are going to continue seeing low interest rates (Fed's long-term target is 3%).
Tech-driven low inflation is a huge topic that is too big to summarise here. Even Buffett himself is surprised with the low inflation.
2017-10-04 17:48