阿弟说投资
利率已經觸發股市和經濟衰退？
Adi_Investor
Publish date: Mon, 19 Nov 2018, 10:02 AM
Adi_Investor
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我业余时，替《阿弟说投资》telegram GROUP的会员，做经济周期分析，以及投资趋势的建议、谘询、教育、理財等等。
投资以长期趋势为主，根据趋势的判断哪类资产该买，哪类该卖？再配合适当的交易策略。
这些资产如：股票、债券、房产、黄金等。
目前出版教人如何step by step投資股票的書－－《股票真智慧》
Wechat ID: pigboy1
Email: kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com
投资以长期趋势为主，根据趋势的判断哪类资产该买，哪类该卖？再配合适当的交易策略。
这些资产如：股票、债券、房产、黄金等。
目前出版教人如何step by step投資股票的書－－《股票真智慧》
Wechat ID: pigboy1
Email: kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com
看下圖顯示，每一次利率往上升的時候，經濟和股市就會衰退。
因為法幣體系是靠債務推動，所以每一次的經濟週期，都會累積更多債務。
為了讓經濟可以承受，利率就必須調的比上一個經濟週期來的低，當然經濟可以承受的利率水平也比過去來的低。
以美國目前利率，距離上一次金融危機的利率頂峰水平，大概差距1%-2%，視不同利率種類而有不同。
因為現在承受債務能力比過去低，所以不需要回到過去利率頂點，就能引發衰退。
以現在距離上一次經濟衰退的利率高峰只有1%-2%的距離，很可能觸發經濟衰退的利率水平已經達到，或者差不多要達到了。
拿房地產說，美國房價比2006年次貸泡沫還高約11%，但利率卻只比上次相差不到1%。
《阿弟投資系列》詳細內容介紹，請瀏覽：
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