-  The IHS Petrodata monthly Offshore Rig Day Rate Index reported over the weekend that the Northwest Europe standard jackup and mid-water depth semisubmersible rig rates have risen significantly this month, reaching their highest levels over the past 3 years. The Deepwater Floating Rig Day Rate Index was also higher, while the US Gulf of Mexico 250 to 300ft segment was unchanged over the past 3 months. However rig utilisation decreased in three categories, while Northwest Europe jack up utilization levels was unchanged.

-  After remaining flat over the past 5 months, the Northwest Europe Standard Jackup Day Rate Index surged by 54 points month-on-month (MoM) in September to 644 points- the highest index level recorded for the segment since March 2009. Fleet utilisation was unchanged MoM and year-on-year (YoY) at 95%.

-  The IHS Petrodata Mid-Water Depth Semisubmersible Day Rate Index rose by 76%-point Mom to 1,062 points in September 2013. While this is the highest over the past 3 years, it is still below the segment’s all-time record of 1,074 back in July 2009. Fleet utilization fell by 5%-point MoM and 6%-point YoY to 73%.

-  The US Gulf of Mexico 250 to 300ft Jackup Day Rate Index remained at the same level at 535 points over the past 3 months, but this is still 75 points higher YoY. Utilisation for this category dropped by 11%-point MoM to 60%, but this is 2%-point up YoY. The Deepwater Floating Rig Day Rate Index rose by 28 points MoM to 918, just 4 points down YoY, with utilization sliding by 1%-point MoM to 97%.

-  These improving rig rates augur well for the listing of UMW Oil & Gas, rescheduled to November this year, which is expected to reach prospective earnings multiple of over 20x. UMW Oil & Gas is currently the only domestic operator of jackup and semisubmersible rigs. Other operators are also hoping to move into the jackup rig segment, including Perisai Petroleum, Coastal Contracts and Alam Maritim Resources. Tanjung Offshore, which had earlier disposed off its offshore support vessel division to Ekuinas, is currently looking at acquiring two semisubmersible rigs, which could be potentially worth up to RM1bil, from Oslo-listed Songa Offshore.

-  We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the sector as newsflow momentum is poised to gain traction, with new orders having surged by 2.2x QoQ to RM17bil in 2Q2013. In the short- to medium-term, excitement in the sector will still largely stem from the larger field projects in Malaysia such as the enhanced-oil recovery projects and gas cluster developments for the North Malay basin, as well as in Sabah and Sarawak which are tied to the completion of the Bintulu LNG complex expansion in 2015.

-  We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the sector with our top pick being SapuraKencana Petroleum while our other BUYs are Alam Maritim, Bumi Armada, Dialog Group and Petronas Gas.

Source: AmeSecurities