- Last week, soybean prices rose on positive export numbers. Bloomberg quoted USDA (US Department of Agriculture) as saying that exporters sold 2.17mil tonnes of soybean in the week ended 16 October.

- The biggest buyer was reported to be China, which accounted for almost 79% of the exports. Other buyers were Spain and Taiwan.

- Oil World has lowered its forecast of Brazil’s 2014F/2015F soybean production by three million tonnes to 89mil tonnes.

- In spite of the downward revision, the estimate of 89mil tonnes still represents a growth of 3.4% from 2013/2014F’s production of 86.1mil tonnes.

- Oil World reduced its forecast due to the dry weather in Brazil. There has been a shortfall of rains over the past three weeks.

- Although rains are expected to arrive in parts of Mato Grosso from 23-27 October, they will not be enough to offset the deficit in moisture experienced in the first three weeks of October.

- Currently, USDA is forecasting soybean production in Brazil to expand 8% to 94mil tonnes in 2014F/2015F. USDA has not revised its estimate of the country’s soybean output yet.

- Oil World also said that soybean plantings in Argentina may decline going forward due to shrinking profit margins. Planted areas for soybean may amount to 19.6mil ha in

2014F/2015F compared with 19.8mil ha in 2013/2014F. Year-to-date, soybean prices have fallen by 12%-13%.

- Currently, USDA is forecasting soybean production in Argentina to inch up from 54mil tonnes in 2013/2014F to 55mil tonnes in 2014F/2015F. Argentina is expected to account for 17.7% of the world’s soybean output in 2014F/2015F.

- China’s Customs General Administration has released the country’s agricultural export and import numbers for the month of September 2014.

- China’s soybean imports rose 7% YoY in September 2014. Imports of palm oil fell by 38% YoY. Year-to-date, the country bought 15.3% more soybean YoY. Palm oil purchases contracted by 9.4% in the nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2013.

Source: AmeSecurities