- Malaysia’s exports grew 2.7% YoY to RM67.69bil in December 2014, the highest value ever recorded for a single month. It was driven by E&E, LNG and timber and timber-based products (November 2014: +2.1% YoY).

- Overseas shipment of E&E had registered +14.9% (November: +7.1% YoY). Meanwhile, exports of non-E&E products had contracted by 2.7% (November: -0.5% YoY).

- In terms of commodities, exports of palm oil which include crude palm oil, fractionated palm oil and palm kernel oil, olein and stearin, had posted a contraction of 6.7% (November: -9.8% YoY).

- Also, shipments of crude petroleum and refined petroleum products fell drastically by 35.7% and 34.1% respectively. In November, crude petroleum and refined petroleum products had advanced by 12.5% and 4.3% respectively.

- In terms of export markets, shipments to the US registered a healthy growth of 28.0% (November: +16.0%). Aside from that, exports to the EU surged by 21.4% (November: +8.6% YoY).

- Contrastingly, exports to China and Indonesia fell by 14.9% and 29.9% respectively. In November, shipments to China and Indonesia had registered -14.6% and +6.6% growth, respectively.

- As for overall imports, we note an advancement of 4.2% to RM58.50bil – driven by intermediate and consumption goods which surged by 11.8% and 4.5%, respectively. In November, imports had registered +0.1%.

- As such, total trade amounted to RM126.19bil in December, which was an increase of 3.4% YoY (November: +1.2% YoY).

- All in, Malaysia had recorded a trade surplus of RM9.19bil in December, which was the 206th consecutive month of positive net trade. However, trade balance moderated from RM11.13bil in November 2014.

- For the full year, total trade grew by 5.9% YoY driven by the advancement in exports of 6.4% and imports growth of 5.3%. Trade balance had also recorded a stronger surplus of RM83.11bil (or +16.6%) in 2014.

- In 4Q14, Malaysia had accumulated higher trade surplus compared to the preceding quarter. Total trade balance had amounted to RM21.47bil (3Q14: RM16.83bil).

- Ahead of the GDP statistical release for 4Q14 which is scheduled to be released on 12 February 2015, we expect the economy to register a growth of 5.5% (vs. 5.6% in 3Q14).

- As such, we envisage full year GDP to advance by 5.9% in 2014 (vs. our earlier estimate of 5.7%). On a YTD 3Q14 basis, GDP grew by 6.1% YoY driven mostly by the YoY improvement in net trades (YTD 3Q13: +4.6%).

- For 2015, we tweak downwards our full-year GDP projection due to the revision in public spending that was budgeted for the year. Our GDP projection for 2015 is lowered to 5.2% (vs. our initial forecast of 5.5%).

Source: AmeSecurities