THE NEXT SUGAR BABY OF BURSA MALAYSIA?

▪️ Coffee           : 3.5 years high
▪️ Sugar           : 4 years high
▪️ Soybean        : 6.5 years high
▪️ Wheat           : 7 years high
▪️ Corn             : 8 years high
▪️ CPO               : 10 years high

Clearly, we are in the midst of a commodity super bull run and wall street banks are signalling that this is just the “first leg of a supercycle”. Goldman Sachs was one of the very first to call it in late 2020, and since then almost every major fund house have taken long positions on commodities. Key factors why this commodity bull still has legs to run:

• Vaccine-driven global recovery
• Supply disruptions exacerbated by lockdowns
• Continuous growth of China, the world’s biggest buyer of natural resources
• Aggressive fiscal stimulus fanning inflation concerns – commodity as hedge

Our Bursa market witnessed its first ever “limit-up” counter today that is sugar related: Malaysia’s largest sugar refiner and producer, MSM (5202).

Which other Malaysian listed co could possibly be a beneficiary of record sugar prices?

MSM as a refiner would need to source raw sugar from sugarcane-growing countries such as Thailand and of course, the number one sugarcane grower in the world: Brazil.

What if we were told that there is one Malaysian listed co whose customer is the world's largest sugarcane grower?

ANCOM (4758) is the ONLY Malaysian agrochemical manufacturer who has a presence in Brazil, its largest export market. Ancom's agrochem active ingredient products are sold to sugarcane growers in Brazil. These herbicides are important for plantation management, to increase yield and production of sugarcane.

The following pie chart details its source of revenue:

The increasing sugar prices has contributed positively to Ancom’s earnings as evident by the quarter results released Q1 & Q2. If one is diligent to look through the segmental reporting, its agrochem segment’s profit for the first 2 quarters is 40% up on the same period last financial year.

Agrochem EBITA

FY21 YTD Q2   : RM 27.5m (+40%)
FY20 YTD Q2   : RM 19.5m
FY20 Full-Year : RM 35.4m

Apart from sugar, Ancom’s products cover a wide variety of food crops as well such as corn, coffee, palm oil. The prices of the crops mentioned have leaped to multi-year highs. This has enabled and encouraged growers to spend more on agrochemicals to enhance yield.

MSM’s “limit-up” performance has just awakened investors and analysts, all on a sugar rush to identify the next SUGAR BABY of Bursa Malaysia.

1. Beneficiary of record-high sugar prices
2. Only Malaysian co serving the world’s largest sugar exporter Brazil
3. Impending completion of RTO exercise of ALB-S5
4. Turnaround into profitable territory Q1 & Q2,
   Q3-Q4 said to be ‘continuation of upward trend’

Could ANCOM be the next sugar-themed investment gem of 2021?