• BNM projects 2020 GDP growth to be between -2.0% and +0.5%

• Growth prospects dimmed by Covid-19

• Growth outlook also hit by low oil prices and supply chain disruptions

• Stimulus measures to add +2.8 ppts to 2020 GDP, +1.0 ppts from infrastructure projects

• Private consumption growth to moderate to 2.5%

• Private investment to contract 1.6% in 2020

• Exports of goods and services to contract 8.7% on weak global demand

• Headline inflation to average -1.5% to +0.5%; core CPI +0.8% to +1.3%

• Current account surplus to narrow to 1.0% - 2.0% of GDP

• Domestic growth prospect to improve toward year-end

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) expects the Malaysian economy to be between -2.0% to 0.5% in 2020, compared to 4.3% in 2019, against a highly challenging global economic outlook.

BNM said that domestic economy will be impacted by the necessary global and domestic actions taken to contain the outbreak. Of significance, tourism-related sectors are expected to be affected by broad-based travel restrictions and travel risk aversion, while production disruptions in the global supply chain will weigh on the manufacturing sector and exports. The implementation and subsequent extension of the Movement Control Order (MCO), while critical, will dampen economic activity following the suspension of operations by non-essential service providers and lower operating capacity of manufacturing firms.

Beyond the MCO period, reduced social and recreational activities until the pandemic is fully controlled globally and domestically will continue to dampen consumption and investment activity. Apart from the pandemic, Bank Negara said the domestic economy will also be affected by the sharp decline and volatile shifts in crude oil prices and continued supply disruption in the commodities sector.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 3 Apr 2020