• Exports fell 4.7% yoy; Imports decreased 2.7% yoy in March

• Trade surplus declined 14.2% yoy to RM12.3bn

• Slower export growth as electrical products drag

• Declined in capital goods pull imports lower

• Exports collapse as coronavirus freezes international trade

• The prognosis for Malaysia’s export is gloomy at this juncture

Malaysia's exports fell 4.7% yoy in March, amid coronavirus-related movement restrictions. Re-exports was RM17.3bn registering an increase of 13.4% yoy and accounted for 21.5% of total exports. However, domestic exports decreased 8.7% or RM6.0bn to RM62.9bn. Imports also decreased 2.7% yoy. Trade surplus in March 2020 was valued at RM12.3bn, decreased by 14.2% yoy. Total trade valued at RM147.9bn decreased RM5.8bn or 3.8% yoy.

However, on a mom basis, exports grew 7.6% whilst imports expanded 9.6%. On seasonally adjusted terms, exports shrank 8.0% and imports fell 2.5%. Total trade in March posted an increase of RM11.6bn or 8.5% as compared to February 2020. However, trade surplus decreased 2.2% or RM280.6m as compared to the previous month.

In first quarter 2020, exports increased marginally 1.1% yoy to RM238.7bn. Reexports valued at RM43.3bn also grew 0.5% yoy and accounted for 18.2% of total exports. Domestic exports rose 1.3% to RM195.3bn from a year ago. Imports also registered an increase of 1.3% yoy to RM201.7bn. Malaysia’s trade during 1Q20 grew by 1.2% to RM440.4bn compared to 1Q19. Trade surplus in 1Q20 was valued at RM37.0bn, rose by 0.1% compared to the same period of 2019. This was the largest trade surplus recorded for 1Q since 2011. Compared to 4Q19, total trade, exports and imports contracted by 8.1%, 7.4% and 8.9%, respectively. Trade surplus expanded by 1.5%.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 4 May 2020