• Exports moderated to 5.0% yoy; Imports rose by 24.0% yoy in July
• Trade surplus narrowed to RM13.7bn
• Export value declined to RM97.3bn; growth stumbled to the lowest in 8-month
• Imports sustained double-digit growth for the sixth consecutive month
• Mixed performance with major trading partners
• Global exports remain robust in July but growth pace slows
• Internal and external disruptions could cause temporary blip in export growth

Malaysia’s export growth moderated to 5.0% yoy in July from RM92.7bn in July 2020 to RM97.3bn. Exports sustained positive growth for the eleventh straight month but down from June print of 27.2% yoy, as reduced capacity order under national recovery plan (NRP) affected the export-oriented output. Malaysia export growth also moderated due to the fading low base effect, shifting demand to services, and supply chain disruptions amidst outbreak of the Delta variant in key trading partners. Domestic export stood at RM76.6bn contributed 78.7% to the total exports, grew by 5.9% yoy (Jun: +21.0%; May: +45.5%; Apr: +83.4%; Mar: +38.3%; Feb: +10.2%; Jan: +6.0%). The re-exports which were valued at RM20.7bn, surged by 2.0% yoy (Jun: +61.2%; May: +56.3%; Apr: +11.0%; Mar: +3.8%; Feb: +64.9%; Jan: +7.5%). Meanwhile, imports rose by 24.0% to RM83.6bn in July compared to 32.1% growth in the previous month. Total trade rose by 13.0% to RM181.0bn, sustaining the sixth consecutive month of double-digit expansion. Trade balance recorded a surplus of RM13.7bn in July, a decrease of 45.8% from RM25.3bn from a year ago.

On a month-on-month basis, imports grew by 0.5%. Meanwhile, exports and total trade posted decreases of 7.7%, and 10.4% respectively. Trade surplus contracted by 38.5% during the period.

For the first 7 months of 2021, total trade amounted to RM1,237.1bn, an increase by 23.9% compared to the same period of 2020. Exports during the period totalled RM682.9bn, up by 25.9% and imports was valued at RM554.2bn, increasing by 21.6%. A trade surplus of RM128.7bn was recorded for the period, widened by 48.8% yoy.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 30 Aug 2021