• Domestic demand continues to anchor growth

• All economic sectors expected to expand in 2024

• Inflation seen at 2.1-3.6% in 2024

• Unemployment rate to improve further to 3.4% in 2024

• Gross exports and imports to return to growth in 2024

• Current account projected to post a surplus of RM62.2 bn or 3.2 pct of GNI

• Revenue +1.5% to RM307.6bn or 15.6% of GDP

• Total government spending -0.8% to RM393.8bn or 19.9% of GDP

• Development expenditure -7.2% to RM90.0bn or 4.6% of GDP

• Operating expenditure +1.2% to RM303.8bn or 15.4% of GDP

• The 2024 fiscal deficit is projected to be at 4.3%

Economy set to grow between 4.0% to 5.0% in 2024

Malaysia’s economy is projected to grow within the range of 4.0% to 5.0% in 2024, with growth envisaged to be broad-based led by the services sector, compared to the forecast of about 4.0% for 2023. Malaysia’s 2024 growth projection will be achieved through robust domestic demand, effectively offsetting the challenges posed by the moderate global growth, supported by the implementation of measures in the new National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR), New Industrial Master Plan 2030 (NIMP 2030), and the MidTerm Review of the Twelfth Malaysia Plan (MTR of the Twelfth Plan).

The growth is envisaged to be broad-based, led by the services sector as intermediate and final services groups are anticipated to rise further, driven by sustained domestic consumption and improved export activities. On the demand side, growth will be buoyed by strong private sector expenditure and improving global demand. Gross exports are anticipated to grow by 5.1%, supported by better performance in global trade and improved prospects in the commodity sector. Gross imports are expected to increase by 4.9% in 2024 buoyed by higher demand for intermediate, capital and consumption goods Consumer prices is expected to rise 2.1% to 3.6% in 2024, partly due to the government’s gradual transition toward a targeted subsidy mechanism.

Medium-Term Fiscal Framework 2024 -2026

The Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (2024-26) has been revised with underlying assumptions of real GDP growth and crude oil prices averaging at 4.8% and USD80 per barrel, respectively, as well as stable domestic crude oil production of 530,000 barrels per day. In the medium-term, total revenue is projected at RM986.9 billion or 15.6% of GDP, mainly contributed by non-petroleum revenue which is forecast at RM816.3bn or 12.9% of GDP. Petroleum-related revenue is estimated at RM170.6bn or 2.7% of GDP. Meanwhile, the total expenditure indicative ceiling is estimated at RM1 ,206.2bn or 19.1 % of GDP with OE allocation projected at RM927.1bn or 14.7% of GDP, while DE at RM279bn or 4.4% of GDP. Overall, the fiscal deficit is expected to consolidate further with the overall balance averaging at 3.5% of GDP.

The Government will continue its countercyclical and supportive fiscal policy to propel the socio-economic agenda towards becoming a progressive and successful nation. Concurrently, advancing fiscal policy framework through the enhancement of revenue mobilisation, improvement in spending efficiency and fostering good governance will further strengthen the resilience of public finances. The pace of fiscal consolidation will be gradually accelerated to achieve the deficit target of 3% of GDP in the medium term.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 16 Oct 2023