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股票回购的利与弊 Share Buyback - bluefun

bluefun
Publish date: Tue, 11 Oct 2016, 09:36 PM

 

顾名思义, share buyback就是当一家公司的股价触底或者被严重低估时,公司利用 cash on hand 回购于股票市场上(open market)的流通股份,为了稳定股价,不让股价进一步跌入深渊,打击投资者的信心。

有时候不利消息散播或者公布的时候,一般上的投资者们就想趁早脱手手上的股份而进行抛售。这样惊慌的举动不但牵引了一家公司的股价,也影响了投资者的情绪。 这个时侯,公司就出来“救市” 了 XD。

Share buyback后,这些回购的股份将会变成 treasury share,在 balance sheet的shareholder's equity里形成 negative value。

Share buyback有好也有坏,只要公司利用它达到一个平衡点,其实蛮好的说,哈哈哈。

Advantages :

(1) 稳定股价 (Price stabilization) - stabilize share price during big correction/bad news


(2) 提高 EPS (increase EPS) - treasury share decrease no.of share issued, therefore indirectly increase EPS


(3) 回购被低估中的股份 - to buyback undervalued share in open market

 

Disadvantages:

 

(1) 减低流通量 (reduce liquidity of share in open market) - >15% of repurchase of total issued share is unhealthy


(2) 影响派息 (affected dividend distribution) - cash on hand/FCF reduce


(3) Opportunity cost - cash spent on share buyback could have a better use(business expansion,acquire peers)

 

一般上,一家公司的 Free cash flow用作于 dividend distribution, share buyback, expansion等等。 若一家公司觉得自己的股价被低估了,将会进行回购,这无形中也影响了派息政策。

Example:

Year 2015
No. of share issued: 100m

Share price: 1.00
Cash on hand: 50m
FCF : 20m
Dividend: 8m(40% of FCF)
Earning after profit : 10m
EPS: 0.10

 

Year 2016:
No. of share issued: 100m
Treasury share: 5m
Weighted share issued: 95m(100m-5m)
Share price: 0.90
Cash on hand: 55m
FCF: 20m
Dividend: 3m(15% of FCF)
Earning after profit : 10m
EPS: 0.1053(10m/95m)

 

Company A 在2015年的 EPS是 0.10,而在 2016年公司进行了 share buyback 5m of total issued shares 100m in open market。这减低了 weighted average share issue 至 95m。 虽然 company A 在2016年里还是赚进和2015年持平的 EAT 10m,可是因为 5m的回购股份, EPS 却增加至 0.1053。

而因为公司进行了回购股份(share buyback),导致股息大减。从 2015年的 8m或者 8cents 减至 2016年的 3m或者 3.16cents(3m/95m)。

所以说, share buyback有好也有坏,只要拿捏得分寸,得益的是会是公司与股东们。

有时候,一家公司也会利用回购的 treasury share 取代 cash dividend as dividend。 最佳的例子有 WCT holdings。

而 bluefun 就认为, share buyback 是“治标不治本” 的办法。 虽然可以稳定股价,不过那也只是暂时性的。 若是一家公司不能稳定的赚钱,股份没人想守候,公司自己买来自己爽,有时还“越买越跌呢” XDD。

bluefun 宁愿公司把用作于 share buyback的钱当做 dividend,派发给股东们更加恰当 as appreciation。 公司只要经营好,管理好 business operation, positive growth & earn money 就可以了。 稳定赚钱又派息的公司一定有人欣赏的,哈哈哈。

 

 

保持良好的投资心态,不随波逐流,愿那好乐观阔达的心态细水长流。

 

 

"The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Phillip Fisher

 

 

 

 

bluefun
11.10.2016

 

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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

Koon Bee

Worst scenario: Director get ESOS at low price, then the ESOS in hand sell to open market, and company share buy back from market

Indirectly: Director sell his ESOS share back to his company and earn awesome profit within few days...Please check on bornoil...happen many times already!!

2016-10-11 21:42

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