Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell sharply for a week since the beginning of May, but they managed to rebound after a massive sell down. As of 12th of May, the S&P 500 index is testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and if the S&P 500 should start falling from here, it would be forming a lower-high, thus an early sign of a downtrend formation. If the S&P and the Dow should forms a downtrend, it would most likely to bring down the Asian markets, and it is likely that our local market would be unaffected, and this applies to individual stocks as well. This week, we shall continue our study on Glove Stocks.
Supermx-7106: Temporary breaking away from the short term downtrend.


Chart 1:Supermx-7106 (15/01/2010?12/05/2010)
As indicated by A, price of Supermx rebounded from RM 6.10 level, and later also breaking above the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the T1 short term downtrend line. Therefore, it has temporary broken away from the short term downtrend. However, despite breaking above these resistance lines, volume failed to increased significantly, and therefore, the breakout was rather weak.
Nonetheless, this is a result of a technical rebound which lead to breaking above the short term downtrend line, but it has not formed an uptrend yet. But still, this is generally a positive signal for if price should continue its sideways movement, sellers are feeling less fearful, thus not selling further down at a lower price.
With such low volume, price of Supermx is expected to stay in consolidation when preparing for a new movement again. Support for Supermx is at RM6.10~RM6.30 while the resistance is at RM7.25~RM7.45.

4 Q Rolling PER	11.45 times	Dividend Yield	1.59%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	11.00 sen	2.01%	15.92%
31/12/2008	3.25 sen	4.06%	5.58%
31/12/2007	1.90 sen	0.63%	13.85%
31/12/2006	6.50 sen	1.56%	10.49%
31/12/2005	6.50 sen	1.46%	12.74%

Table 1:Supermx-7106, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Topglov -7113: Technical rebound, testing short term downtrend line.

Chart 2: Topglov -7113, (15/01/2010?12/05/2010)
As shown on chart 2, price of Top Glove rebounded strongly after touching RM11.18 level, but it stopped at T1 short term downtrend line, suggesting that the short term downtrend remains intact, while still serving as the dynamic resistance together with the 14, 21, 31 EMA.
If price should remains resisted by these dynamic resistance line, it would form another lower-high, thus the downtrend would carry on. On the other hand, if price should break above these dynamic resistance, there is a chance of a consolidation thus, temporary breaking away from the downtrend.
As for a reversal signal, price has to break above the T1 line with strong volume, and stays above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, or else, any rebound below the dynamic resistance would considered as a technical rebound.

4 Q Rolling PER	15.52 times	Dividend Yield	1.79%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/08/2009	22.00 sen	3.17%	11.04%
31/08/2008	11.00 sen	2.71%	8.01%
31/08/2007	9.22 sen	1.31%	8.83%
31/08/2006	9.00 sen	1.04%	7.90%
31/08/2005	8.00 sen	1.60%	9.06%

Table 2: Topglov -7113, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Latexx-7064: Short term downtrend.


Chart 3: Latexx-7064 (15/01/2010?12/05/2010)
Both the above example, Supermx as well as Top Glove, have a chance of prolonging its consolidation thus temporary breaking away from the short term downtrend. However, as for Latexx, the downtrend remains intact while price movement remains weak.
As shown on chart 3, the T1 line as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA are still serving as the dynamic resistance for the downtrend, while price is still firmly below these dynamic resistance lines. The immediate support for Latexx is seen at RM3.60, and if price should break below this level, more downside movement is expected for Latexx, as it shows that all those investors who had bought above the RM3.60 and are still holding, would be making losses, thus the will of ?breaking even? will be stronger than the will of ?making a profit?; in other words, the selling pressure is expected to be strong.

4 Q Rolling PER	11.05 times	Dividend Yield	0.56%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	2 sen	0.53%	15.86%
31/12/2008	0 sen	0%	6.97%
31/12/2007	0 sen	0%	3.40%
31/12/2006	0 sen	0%	2.79%
31/12/2005	0 sen	0%	3.35%

Table 3: Latexx-7064, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
Technically, when ever a stock trend has formed a lower-high, it tells us that the stock is either having technical correction or short term downtrend. If price should remains resisted by the falling trend line, the downtrend would continue. To break away from the downtrend, price has to break above the short term downtrend line with strong volume, or else a break out with thin volume is likely to be a false break out.





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