Stock Infographics

五层力量叠加在一起造成长期的通货膨胀

DonkeyStock
Publish date: Mon, 11 Apr 2022, 12:25 PM
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尽管美国政府不断强调通货膨胀是暂时的，但是债卷交易员已经不断调高了他们对未来10年通膨的预期。目前未来10年的通膨预期已经到达3%，远远超出了美联储预计的2%。

美联储次次声明这次的通膨是需求过剩引起的，因此要加速生息。但是我们认为这是个严重误判，因为需求旺盛造成的价格上涨只是暂时的，结构性的成本推升才是导致长期物价下不来的主要原因。会造成长期成本上涨的原因如下：

1） 全球人口结构老化，劳动力下降，劳动力成本不断上升

2）贸易区域化和货币金融多元化将会导致贸易成本上升。中国、俄罗斯、伊朗打造不同于美元或欧元的体系，这将导致参与世界贸易的各国都必须同时使用两套体系。同时使用两套体系的成本势必会上涨。老体系的参与者流失到新体系也会导致老体系的贸易成本上升。

3）技术冷战。西方国家对中国或俄罗斯的技术封锁。这将倒逼很多国家建立自己的完整的产业链，，各式各样的本土化将导致科技创新的成本上升

4）全球供应链重组，将导致供应链成本上升。全球供应链的脆弱将让生产商们放弃高效的全球供应链，进而将重点放在提高产业链的抗风险能力。这将会为产业链产生冗余的产能，进而推升价格。

5）全球物流体的系瓶颈将导致运输成本上升

层层叠加，将会造成这次的通货膨胀下不来，唯有进行大规模投资，才会解决以上这些问题。为此，大规模加息将造成更大的伤害。

然而，这5层问题同时也带来了新的机会，我们将在明天和大家梳理什么行业将会有机会获益。

 

Source: iSquare Intelligence

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