Global smartphone sales are continuing to rebound, partly thanks to a "buzz" around high-end devices supporting Gen AI, but mostly due to budget conscious consumers seeking out low-end devices.

Market watchers Canalys and IDC have both released shipment stats for calendar Q2, and while their figures may differ in places, the two largely agree on the overall upward swing and that generative AI is playing a part.

IDC says that shipments went up 6.5 percent year-on-year - the fourth consecutive quarter of shipment growth. Canalys puts the growth at a more impressive 12 percent rise and says it is the third consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth.

However, when it comes to the raw numbers, the two research outfits are within spitting distance of each other: Canalys estimates 288 million smartphones shipped globally during the quarter; and IDC puts the figure at 285.4 million units.

"Optimism continues to build in the global smartphone market, fueled by innovative technologies like Gen AI and recovering demand from the mass market," Canalys research manager Amber Liu said. She added that easing inflation levels had also stimulated shipment growth in the low-end segment in some markets.

IDC says demand has yet to come back to a full recovery, and remains challenged in many markets.

"While recovery is well underway with the top five companies all making year-over-year gains, we are seeing increasing competition amongst the leaders and a polarization of price bands," said IDC's Worldwide Tracker research director Nabila Popal.

This is manifesting in Apple and Samsung continuing to push the top of the market and benefit from what IDC calls a "premiumization" trend, while many Chinese makers are increasing shipments in the low end in an attempt to capture volume share.

There is "lots of excitement in the smartphone market today," according to Popal, thanks to the Gen AI smartphones, which are "expected to grow faster than any mobile innovation we have seen to date and forecast to capture 19 percent of the market with 234 million shipments this year," she added.

Both IDC and Canalys concur on which brand is leading the way at the moment: Samsung took the top spot in Q2 with about 18 percent of the entire market, and about 53.9 million devices shipped. Apple was in second place with about 16 percent market share and 45.2 million iThings sold.

Chinese brand Xiaomi took third spot with about 15 percent market share, meaning it is breathing down Apple's neck. It has also seen much greater growth than either Samsung or Apple, increasing shipments by 27.4 percent compared with the same period last year.

Vivo, another China-based company, grew at 21.9 percent year-on-year to take a nine percent share of the market.

IDC forecast more Gen AI smartphones will launch in the second half of the year, and expects this to keep sales ticking over.

Canalys said in a previous report that it expects 16 percent of smartphones shipped globally this year to be AI-capable, rising to 54 percent by 2028, but warned about the privacy challenges and over-hyping of the tech.

It found that while 25 percent of respondents to a survey showed high or very high interest in having an AI-enabled phone, 34 percent had "some" interest, 33 percent "little" interest, and seven percent no interest at all. ®

https://www.theregister.com//2024/07/15/smartphones_q2_analysts/