Where Futures Lies
Daily Futures Trading Strategy 11 December 2022 (Foreign Market)
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Publish date: Mon, 11 Dec 2023, 03:21 PM
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WTI Crude, Gold, HSI, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq
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E-Mini Dow
The three major U.S. stock indexes ended higher on Friday and the S&P 500 registered a sixth straight week of gains - its longest weekly winning streak since November 2019, after data that showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in November.
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Plan A: Remain long as long as market trades above 36132. Targets are 36328 and 36425.
Plan B: Consider short if market stays below 36132. Targets are 36083 and 35986.
E-Mini S&P 500
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Plan A: Long if market supported firm above 4520. Targets are 4539 and 4550.
Plan B: Short if market failed to support above 4520. Targets are 4512 and 4499.
E-Mini Nasdaq
Plan A: Long if market retraced but supported firm above 15920. Targets are 15968 and 15993.
Plan B: Short if market fall below 15920. Target are 19880 and 19855
The S&P 500 rose on Friday to hit a new high for the year after the November jobs report and University of Michigan consumer survey data signaled a resilient economy and cooling inflation, fueling hopes for a so-called soft landing scenario.
The S&P 500 posted its highest close of the year last week, but had yet to exceed its 2023 intraday high set in July until Friday, when it topped 4,609 in afternoon trading. The benchmark is now up about 20% on the year and trading at its highest level back to March 2022.
On the other hand, the monthly jobs report could also support the notion that the Fed is guiding the U.S. economy toward a soft landing — a steady economic recovery amid falling inflation. Average hourly earnings, seen as a leading indicator of inflation, rose about as expected in November as the economy added more jobs than the prior month.
Meanwhile, a closely watched University of Michigan survey showed inflation expectations drop and consumer sentiment jump in December to it highest level since July.
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Plan A: Long if market supported firm above 4520. Targets are 4539 and 4550.
Plan B: Short if market failed to support above 4520. Targets are 4512 and 4499.
E-Mini Nasdaq
All the major averages finished the week with gains. The broad market index jumped 0.2% for the period, and the Dow finished marginally higher. Both indexes wrapped six winning weeks, their longest run since 2019. The Nasdaq advanced 0.7%.
November’s nonfarm payrolls report showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. The jobless rate fell to 3.7% in November from 3.9% the prior month. It was expected to remain the same. The economy added 199,000 jobs, slightly ahead of the 190,000 estimate from Dow Jones and well ahead of the 150,000 jobs added in October.
The data first raised concerns that the economy was running too hot for inflation to cool enough for the Fed to start retreating from its high-rates policy. Some traders expect the Fed to start cutting rates as early as next spring, with its latest policy meeting set for Wednesday.
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HSI
Hong Kong stocks began on Friday with a small gain, paring some of the week's losses, as investors keenly await the release of key US inflation data due later in the day.
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Plan A: Remain short if the market stays below 16484. Targets are 16016 and 15938.
Plan B: Consider long only if the market stays above 16484. Targets are 16563 and 16641.
WTI Crude
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Friday, regaining some ground following six losing sessions as slowing economies raise demand worries amid concerns over OPEC+'s ability to adhere to voluntary production cuts announced last week.
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Plan A: Remain long as long as oil price stays above 70.31. Targets are 71.88 and 72.66.
Plan B: Consider short only if oil price stays below 70.31. Targets are 69.53 and 68.75.
Gold
Gold retreated back under $2,000 an ounce on Friday as the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened after traders trimmed bets for U.S. interest rate cuts to materialize by March following stronger-than-expected jobs data.
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Plan A: Remain short as long as gold price stays below 2023.43. Targets are 1996.09 and 1988.28.
Plan B: Attempts long only if gold price stays above 2023.43. Targets are 2031.25 and 2042.96.
Disclaimer: This information is intended to assist professional investors. News are credit courtesy of Reuters, Nasdaq.com, Bloomberg, CNN, Market Watch, FT.com, the Star online, forbes.com, mining.com and CNBC. The information does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest or to provide management services and is subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice.As with all investments, there are associated risks and you could lose money investing. Prior to making any investment, a prospective investor should consult with its own investment, accounting, legal and tax advisers to evaluate independently the risks, consequences and suitability of that investment.
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