These few days, i had been hearing a lot of bad news circulating around. A lot of bad auras and bad atmosphere around the air. First will be the oil price. Oil price had been plunging and plunging, continue to break new low. From around USD110 in mid of 2014, plunging to now around USD32 in only 2 years. And a lot of forecast from big financial groups, such as Goldman Sachs forecasting that the Brent Crude Oil will be below USD20[1].

A lot of big companies had been hit by the low crude oil prices, especially the Oil and Gas Companies. Some of them are already planning for the worst if the Brent Crude Oil stays low. Lesser and lesser projects from the Oil and Gas Industry. 

Second will be the USD/RM forex. Our Ringgit had weakened a lot, from USD/RM of RM3.2 to now USD/RM of RM4.3773 in 2 years. Our weakening RM had impacted a lot on the heavy industries which are importing their raw materials from overseas. Till now, there is still no sign of recovering. As USD had increased their interest rate, Malaysia expected to have a lot of money outflow from the country. When there is money outflow from our country, our Ringgit will be weaker and weaker. 

The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to USD95.3 bil as at 31 December 2015 compared to USD115.9 bil as at end 2014[2]. In just 1 year, our international reserves had dropped 17%. If US is going to increase the interest rate for the second time, i think the international reserves will be even lower. With higher USD, a lot of companies are suffering lesser profit or even losses as some of the raw materials are denominated and transacted in USD.

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Third will be the job retrenchments. A total of 17,680 people in Malaysia lost their jobs in 2015[3]. Banks, Oil and Gas industries, heavy industries are retrenching their staffs. I do not know what will be happening in 2016. If the trend is worse than 2015, there might be some retrenchments also. So, it is advisable to just hold on to our current positions and try our best to survive in the current situation.

I personally feel the pinch of the inflation. When the LRT fares increased, my expenses are getting higher. Tolls being increased, no more subsidy, public transports being increased. Fuf, when will my salary increase? Hahahah~

Today i read from The Edge Financial Daily[4]. I am absolutely agree with the title. Even among my friends, my colleagues, the hot topic now is job security. Job security is the most important in our society and country now. Job security will lead to society security, society security will lead to economics, and coming back, the economics will lead to job security. All of these is a cycle. If people are satisfied and happy with the job opportunities offered, everyone will have a job. The problems such as, theft, pickpockets, burglaries, in the society will be lesser. When the whole community is living in peace and harmony, then the economy of our country will grow. If one of the elements is disrupted, then the cycle will be affected as well.

Well, talking so much on the negativity. I think it is enough. Next question, is the worst is yet to come? I don't know. Nobody had the answer. I can also give my own predictions on the oil price and the USD/RM. But all of these are predictions, and if i got it correct, so what? If i got it wrong, so what? The problem is not what will be happening next. It should be how are we going to face these situations? I remember in one of my post, i mentioned about there are 3 types of people in this world. One is always complaining; one is neutral, accepting everything; the last one is opportunist, finding ways to wave through the hardships. Which one should we be?

Just when the oil price is low and the RM is weakening, who had thought that these companies had been making handsome profits? Had anyone think that we can earn from the stock market even though the economy is not so good? Well, where there is a will, there is a way. We certainly can profit from panic. Let's look at some counters:

1. PETRONM - Downstream Oil and Gas industry processes on the low crude oil and exports its products in USD

2. SCGM - Benefits from the low Crude Oil and 47% of its products are exported overseas earning USD.

3. a) POHUAT - Exports furnitures to US. POHUAT benefits as demand of home furnitures and office furnitures are recovering aligning with recovering US markets and higher demands from Canada.

b) LIIHEN - Furniture counter exports to US earning USD as well

4. TOPGLOV - Q1 2016's net profit almost tripled due to the weakening RM. Most exports to overseas and they will have corporate exercises in this year.

5. INSTACO - Have several projects and partnerships with CRCC (China Railway Construction Corporation Limited in Malaysia). CIMB had given a TP of 0.70.

6. INARI - Will be benefiting from the exporting EnE sector. Under the highlight of a lot of fund houses and picked as top picks for a few investment banks.

Are we still thinking what should we do during these difficult moments? Are we still thinking of how to make money in the stock market? As we are still figuring out for answers, there are already some people profiting from the market, waiting for the next downfall to pick up good fundamental stocks. Are we slow to react or to take action now? Of course NO! All of the counters above had increased a lot. They are not lucky picks. They are picked because they adhere to the theme now. Our focus now should be on the export counters earning USD and those counters benefiting from the low crude oil. Or at least, we can follow the steps of the fund houses.

It is time to step out from our comfort zone considering that the current global market situation is not so pleasant. It is time for us to gain some knowledge and learn about investing. Investing skills are not taught in the school or university. We ourselves need to reach out to gain more knowledge. Investment itself is risky, but if you learn more, read more, study more, the risks will be reduced. Emotions plays the biggest role in making decision. With the knowledge on the macro economic, we can make better decisions. That is why i come out with the phrase Wind Rider, Gainvestor, ride the wind and gainvest. 

Investing for me is a tool for me to have extra knowledge and i hope to gain some passive income through investing. Knowledge itself is a kind of blessing. As a Gen-Y living in the modern society, i know it is hard for us to survive nowadays. With car loans, house loans, credit card debts and a lot of other mountain debts, we certainly had a lot of challenges resisting the temptations in the world. But, at the same time, we do have a lot of free times. So let's utilize our time and start to invest in a knowledge!

Again, I would like to take this opportunity to gather everyone who are seriously interested in learning investment or learning a new knowledge. I will share with everybody all the knowledge that i have learnt and experienced (of course for a certain amount of fees). You can always refer to my stock picks and determine whether my wind riding investment style suits you or not. (My report card for October, November and December). Let's not talk about the profit and loss, let's just talk about investment analysis and interests. If you are interested, or you have any queries or comments, you can always drop me an email at gainvestor10sai@gmail.com or you can communicate with me through FB messenger at Gainvestor10sai. I truly appreciate all the feedbacks, no matter good or bad. I believe, in order for me to be better, i will accept all of the criticisms and comments.

If you want to go FAST, go alone. If you want to go FAR, we go TOGETHER! Together, we take the road not taken. The more we LEARN, the more we EARN...

I strongly believe that by seizing appropriate KNOWLEDGE, we will be able to LEARN fast and more... All of us deserved a good KNOWLEDGE on investment. Don't waste our time and money in the market anymore, looking for the best formula. In my opinion, we need to be discipline and we need to have a strong mindset. I think all of you deserved to obtain an appropriate knowledge, give yourself a chance, and also give me a change. What say you?

Let's Ride the Wind and Gainvest Together!

Gainvestor 10sai

13 January 2016

12.31am

Sources: 

[1]: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN0UL02520160107

[2]: http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_press&pg=en_press_all&ac=3317&lang=en

[3]: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/20000-lost-their-jobs-in-2015-worse-in-2016-says-employers-group

[4]: The Edge Financial Daily: 12 January 2016