[SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD：毛棕榈油价格近期可能保持平稳]

2Q18 vs 2Q17:
截至2018年12月31日止季度，森种植的净盈利为1.29亿令吉，较去年同期下跌70％，主要是由于原棕油（「棕榈油」）及palm kernel（“PK”）的平均实现价格下降影响了所有上游部门的表现。新鲜水果串（“FFB”）产量改善，下游业务盈利改善，本季度净非经常性收益1400万令吉，主要是因为再次出售越南子公司而产生的3千万令吉，部分被利比里亚资产减值1500万令吉抵消。由于本季度的借款水平较高，森种植的融资成本较高。

上游：
截至2018年12月31日止的季度，上游业务报告的利息和税项（“PBIT”）前的经常性利润为1.85亿令吉，而去年同期为5.77亿令吉。业绩疲弱主要是由于平均毛棕榈油和PK价格下降，在本季度分别下降了30％和49％。

（i）上游马来西亚：
由于CPO实现价格下降（下降28％）和PK（下降47％）以及FFB产量下降（下降11％），上游马来西亚的PBIT（与前一年的丰收相比）下降57％至1.76亿令吉。

（ii）印度尼西亚上游：
上游印度尼西亚本季度的PBIT为500万令吉，而去年同期为1.44亿令吉，主要是由于CPO平均实现价格（下降34％）和PK（下降51％）显着下降。由于印度尼西亚的丰收和高库存水平，使价格低于全球市场价格。实际价格和OER（从去年同期的21.87％下降至21.24％）下降的负面影响，部分被FFB产量增加而有所缓解。

（iii）上游PNG / SI：
上游PNG / SI在本季度报告的PBIT为2,700万令吉，较去年同期的3900万令吉下跌31％。这是由于毛棕榈油的平均实现价格较弱（下降了21％），部分被FFB产量显着增加41％抵消，因为该部门从上一年度的相应季度的低收获中恢复。

（iv）利比里亚上游：
利比里亚上游在本季度的利息和税前亏损较高，为2300万令吉，而去年同期报告的损失为2千万令吉。成熟棕榈树对FFB产量的改善不足以缓解CPO平均实现价格下降的影响（下降19％）。

下游：
下游业务在本季度录得的PBIT为9,800万令吉，较去年同期增加53％。这弥补了欧洲，中东和非洲（“EMEA”）差异化业务的低利润，这些业务受到需求下降的影响。

其他业务：
尽管联营公司和合资公司的亏损份额较低，但其他业务的PBIT从去年同期的3,200万令吉下降至300万令吉。这一下降是由于去年同一季度确认的投资中获得的一次性股息收入为3900万令吉。

YTD18 vs YTD17：
截至2018年12月31日止六个月，森种植报告净利润为2.44亿令吉，而去年同期则为净利润14.48亿令吉。下降的主要原因是上一年录得的非经常性净利润为7.49亿令吉，涉及向关联方出售土地的收益以及向Yayasan Sime Darby捐赠的一次性回扣，以及较低的经常性PBIT。

由于平均CPO和PK价格走弱，森种植的经常性PBIT为5.45亿令吉，较去年同期录得的11.85亿令吉低54％。然而，上游业务的运营统计数据改善以及下游业务的持续盈利改善部分缓解了CPO和PK价格下降的影响。

上游：
截至2018年12月31日止六个月期间，森种植上游业务的经常性PBIT总额由去年同期的10.13亿令吉下跌62％至3.85亿令吉，完全归因于CPO及PK的价格急剧下跌，分别为26％和38％。 FFB产量YoY同比增长2％，部分缓解了价格的不利影响。

（i）上游马来西亚：
在本报告所述期间，上游马来西亚的PBIT下降了58％至3.01亿令吉。 PBIT的下降主要是由于平均CPO和PK价格下降（分别下降了24％和35％）以及FFB产量下降（下降了14％）。

ii）印度尼西亚上游：
印度尼西亚上游报告的PBIT为6,800万令吉，大大低于去年同期的2.61亿令吉，主要是由于CPO平均实现价格下降（下降34％）和PK（下降43％）。在本报告所述期间，FFB产量增加19％，部分缓解了价格下跌带来的不利影响。

（iii）上游PNG / SI：
上游PNG / SI记录的5700万令吉的PBIT较去年同期的7,700万令吉下降26％，也被较低的平均毛棕榈油价格YoY同比下降18％影响。尽管如此，与去年同期相比，FFB产量增加了33％，缓解了价格下跌带来的不利影响。

（iv）利比里亚上游：
上游利比里亚业务报告亏损4,100万令吉，略低于去年同期的4,300万令吉亏损，由于本期FFB产量大幅上升导致CPO实现价格下降的影响较小。

下游：
下游业务的PBIT为1.46亿令吉，比去年同期的1.34亿令吉高出9％。这弥补了亚太地区和欧洲，中东和非洲地区差异化业务的利润减少，这些业务的需求放缓，特殊产品的利润率下降。

其他业务：
其他业务报告的PBIT为1,400万令吉，而去年同期则为3,800万令吉。上一年度同期投资收到的3,900万令吉一次性股息收入，而本期间联营公司及合营公司亏损的比例较低，部分弥补了利润下降。

2Q18 vs 1Q18：
森种植本季度的净收益增长12％至1.29亿令吉，收入增长15％至35亿令吉。

上游：
与上一季度的经常性PBIT 2亿令吉相比，上游业务的经常性PBIT在本季度略微下降8％至1.85亿令吉，原因是CPO和PK价格分别下降了12％和19％。由于FFB产量较高以及OER较高（从21.06％上升至21.28％），本季度CPO和PK实现价格下降的不利影响被抵消。

（i）上游马来西亚：
上游马来西亚本季度的PBIT为1.76亿令吉，较上一季度增加41％，原因是FFB产量增加16％。较高的收成补偿了CPO实现价格下降（下降13％）和PK（下降19％）的影响。

（ii）印度尼西亚上游：
印度尼西亚上游报告的PBIT为500万令吉，大大低于上一季度的6,300万令吉PBIT。受FFB产量下降14％影响的PBIT较低，因本季度CPO和PK实现价格下降而进一步恶化。 PK价格较上一季度下降了15％。

（iii）上游PNG / SI：
该部门目前的季度PBIT为2,700万令吉，比上一季度的3,000万令吉的利润低10％。较低的PBIT主要是由于FFB产量减少了6％以及CPO价格的类似下降，部分被当前季度OER的改善所抵消。

（iv）利比里亚上游：
上游利比里亚业务报告的利息和税前亏损为2,300万令吉，而上一季度录得的亏损为1,800万令吉，主要是由于CPO及PK的平均价格较低。

下游：
在本季度，下游业务的PBIT为9,800万令吉，而上一季度则为4800万令吉。

其他业务：
本季度其他业务的PBIT从上一季度的1,100万令吉下降至300万令吉。这主要是由于联营公司和合资企业的损失较大。

前景：
毛棕榈油价格近期可能保持平稳。除非出现任何不可预见的情况，森种植预期截至2019年12月止财政年度的经常性经营表现令人满意。
---------------------------------------------------------------
James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:

a) GBGAQRS (GABUNGAN AQRS BHD), recommended on 16 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.80, rose to RM1.44 in 3 months 29 days, total return is 80%

b) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM1.16 (dividend RM0.015) in 8 months 4 days, total return is 64.3%

c) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM1.24 in 9 months 13 day, total return is 56%

d) JAKS (JAKS RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 20 Jan 19, initial price was RM0.575, rose to RM0.82 in 2 months 25 days, total return is 42.6%

e) KGB (KELINGTON GROUP BHD), recommended on 23 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.965, rose to RM1.33 in 3 months 22 days, total return is 37.8%

f) BAUTO (BERMAZ AUTO BHD), recommended on 14 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.89, rose to RM2.35 (dividend RM0.0825) in 6 months 2 day, total return is 28.7%

g) BJFOOD (BERJAYA FOOD BHD), recommended on 30 Sep 18, initial price was RM1.43, rose to RM1.77 (dividends RM0.03) in 6 months 14 days, total return is 25.9%

h) VIZIONE (VIZIONE HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 30 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.85, rose to RM1.02 in 3 months 14 days, total return is 20%

i) ELKDESA (ELK-DESA RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 18 Nov 18, initial price was RM1.27, rose to RM1.41 (dividend RM0.035) in 4 months 27 days, total return is 13.8%

j) SWKPLNT (SARAWAK PLANTATION BHD), recommended on 24 Mar 19, initial price was RM1.55, rose to RM1.72 in 25 days, total return is 11%

k) HSSEB (HSS ENGINEERS BHD), recommended on 20 Jan 19, initial price was RM1.04, rose to RM1.14 in 2 months 25 days, total return is 9.6%

我希望将我的策略分享给读者，希望他们在阅读后能够表现出色。我正在使用基本面分析（Fundamental Analysis）：

预计公司每年的增长率必须> 14％

我想说服读者学习基本面分析FA以便能从股市赚钱。

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James Ng
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[SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD: CPO prices will likely remain flat in the near term]

2Q18 vs 2Q17:
The Group posted net earnings of RM129 million for the quarter ended 31 December 2018, a 70% decline as compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, which was mainly attributable to lower average realised prices of crude palm oil ("CPO") and palm kernel ("PK") which affected the performance of all Upstream segments. This was partially cushioned by an improvement in fresh fruit bunches ("FFB") production, earnings improvement from the Downstream segment, and a net non-recurring gain of RM14 million in the current quarter mainly arising from again on disposal of a subsidiary in Vietnam of RM30 million offset by an impairment of assets in Liberia of RM15 million. The Group's finance costs were higher due to the higher level of borrowings during the quarter under review.

Upstream:
In the quarter ended 31 December 2018, Upstream operations reported a recurring profit before interest and tax ("PBIT") of RM185 million in comparison with RM577 million reported in the corresponding quarter last year. The weaker performance was largely due to lower average CPO and PK prices realised, which declined by 30% and 49% respectively in the quarter under review.

(i) Upstream Malaysia:
Upstream Malaysia registered a 57% decline in PBIT to RM176 million in the quarter under review, on the back of lower realised prices for CPO (declined by 28%) and PK (declined by 47%), as well as lower FFB production (declined by 11%) as compared to the bumper harvest experienced in the previous year.

(ii) Upstream Indonesia:
Upstream Indonesia recorded a PBIT of RM5 million in the current quarter as compared to RM144 million registered in the same quarter last year, primarily due to the significant decline in the average realised prices for CPO (declined by 34%) and PK (declined by 51%). The prices were driven below global market prices due to the bumper crop and high inventory levels in Indonesia. The adverse impact from lower realised prices and OER which decreased to 21.24% from 21.87% recorded in the last year corresponding quarter was partially mitigated by the higher FFB production.

(iii) Upstream PNG/SI:
Upstream PNG/SI reported a PBIT of RM27 million in the quarter under review, a 31% decline against RM39 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. This was due to the weaker average realised price of CPO (declined by 21%), which was partially compensated by the significant 41% improvement in FFB production as the segment recovered from the low harvest in the previous year corresponding quarter.

(iv) Upstream Liberia:
Upstream Liberia registered a higher loss before interest and tax of RM23 million in the quarter under review as compared to a loss of RM20 million reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Improvement in FFB yield from maturing palm trees was not sufficient to cushion the impact of lower average realised prices for CPO (declined by 19%).

Downstream:
Downstream operations recorded a PBIT of RM98 million in the quarter under review which was 53% higher than the corresponding quarter of the previous year. This compensated for the lower profits from differentiated businesses in Europe, Middle East and Africa ("EMEA") which were impacted by lower demand.

Other operations:
Despite lower share of losses from associates and joint ventures, the PBIT of other operations declined to RM3 million from RM32 million recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The decline was due to a one off dividend income of RM39 million received from an investment recognised in the same quarter of the previous year.

YTD18 vs YTD17:
For the six months ended 31 December 2018, the Group reported a net profit of RM244 million, compared to the net profit of RM1,448 million for the corresponding period of the previous year. The decline was largely due to the non-recurring net profit of RM749 million recorded in the previous year relating to the gain on sale of land to a related party and a one-off writeback of donation to Yayasan Sime Darby, as well as lower recurring PBIT.

The Group registered recurring PBIT of RM545 million which was 54% lower than RM1,185 million recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year, on the back of weaker average CPO and PK prices realised. However, improved operational statistics of the Upstream segments and continued earnings improvement from its Downstream operations partially mitigated the impact of lower CPO and PK prices.

Upstream:
The total recurring PBIT of the Group's Upstream operations fell by 62% to RM385 million in the six month period ended 31 December 2018, from RM1,013 million registered in the same period last year, wholly attributable to the sharp decline in the CPO and PK prices by 26% and 38% respectively in the current period. The adverse price impact was partially mitigated by a 2% year-on-year rise in FFB production.

(i) Upstream Malaysia:
PBIT of Upstream Malaysia declined by 58% to RM301 million for the period under review. The decline in PBIT was mainly attributable to the lower average CPO and PK prices realised (declined by 24% and 35%, respectively) as well as lower FFB production (declined by 14%).

(ii) Upstream Indonesia:
Upstream Indonesia reported a PBIT of RM68 million, significantly lower than the corresponding period of the previous year of RM261 million, largely due to lower average realised prices of CPO (declined by 34%) and PK (declined by 43%). The adverse impact of lower prices was partially mitigated by the 19% increase in FFB production during the period under review.

(iii) Upstream PNG/SI:
PBIT of RM57 million recorded by Upstream PNG/SI was 26% lower as compared to RM77 million in the previous year corresponding period, also not spared by lower average CPO price realised which declined by 18% year-on-year. Nevertheless, the improvement in FFB production of 33% as compared to the same period last year has cushioned the adverse impact from lower prices.

(iv) Upstream Liberia:
Upstream Liberia operations reported a loss of RM41 million, marginally lower than a loss of RM43 million in the corresponding period last year, least impacted by the lower CPO realised prices due to the significantly higher FFB production in the current period.

Downstream:
Downstream operations registered a PBIT of RM146 million, 9% higher than the previous year corresponding period of RM134 million. This compensated for the lower profits from differentiated businesses in APAC and EMEA which suffered from slower demand and declining margins from specialty products.

Other operations:
Other operations reported a PBIT of RM14 million as compared to RM38 million in the corresponding period of the previous year. The lower share of losses from associates and joint ventures in the current period partially compensated the decline in profits due to the recognition of RM39 million one-off dividend income received from an investment in the previous year.

2Q18 vs 1Q18:
The Group's net earnings for the current quarter increased by 12% to RM129 million, with revenue rising by 15% to RM3.5 billion.

Upstream:
The Upstream operations' recurring PBIT decreased marginally by 8% to RM185 million in the current quarter, as compared to RM200 million registered in the preceding quarter, attributable to the lower CPO and PK prices which fell by 12% and 19% respectively. The adverse impact from lower CPO and PK realised prices was reduced by the higher FFB production as well as higher OER, which improved from 21.06% to 21.28% in the current quarter.

(i) Upstream Malaysia:
Upstream Malaysia registered a PBIT of RM176 million for the current quarter, 41% higher than the preceding quarter, attributable to the 16% higher FFB production. The higher crop compensated the impact from the lower realised prices of CPO (declined by 13%) and PK (declined by 19%).

(ii) Upstream Indonesia:
Upstream Indonesia reported a PBIT of RM5 million, significantly lower than the preceding quarter PBIT of RM63 million. The lower PBIT impacted by the 14% lower FFB production was exacerbated by the decline in CPO and PK realised prices in the current quarter. PK prices were lower by 15% than the preceding quarter.

(iii) Upstream PNG/SI:
This segment's current quarter PBIT of RM27 million was 10% lower than the profit of RM30 million registered in the preceding quarter. The lower PBIT was primarily due to the reduction in FFB production of 6% as well as a similar decline in CPO prices, partially compensated by the improvement in OER in the current quarter.

(iv) Upstream Liberia:
Upstream Liberia operation reported a loss before interest and tax of RM23 million as compared to RM18 million loss registered in the preceding quarter, largely attributable to the lower average price realised for CPO and PK.

Downstream:
Downstream operations recorded a PBIT of RM98 million in the quarter under review as compared to RM48 million reported in the preceding quarter.

Other operations:
PBIT of other operations in the current quarter declined to RM3 million from RM11 million recorded in the preceding quarter. This was mainly due to higher losses incurred by associates and joint ventures.

Prospects:
CPO prices will likely remain flat in the near term. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Group expects its recurring operating performance for the financial year ending December 2019 to be satisfactory.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:

a) GBGAQRS (GABUNGAN AQRS BHD), recommended on 16 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.80, rose to RM1.44 in 3 months 29 days, total return is 80%

b) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM1.16 (dividend RM0.015) in 8 months 4 days, total return is 64.3%

c) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM1.24 in 9 months 13 day, total return is 56%

d) JAKS (JAKS RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 20 Jan 19, initial price was RM0.575, rose to RM0.82 in 2 months 25 days, total return is 42.6%

e) KGB (KELINGTON GROUP BHD), recommended on 23 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.965, rose to RM1.33 in 3 months 22 days, total return is 37.8%

f) BAUTO (BERMAZ AUTO BHD), recommended on 14 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.89, rose to RM2.35 (dividend RM0.0825) in 6 months 2 day, total return is 28.7%

g) BJFOOD (BERJAYA FOOD BHD), recommended on 30 Sep 18, initial price was RM1.43, rose to RM1.77 (dividends RM0.03) in 6 months 14 days, total return is 25.9%

h) VIZIONE (VIZIONE HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 30 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.85, rose to RM1.02 in 3 months 14 days, total return is 20%

i) ELKDESA (ELK-DESA RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 18 Nov 18, initial price was RM1.27, rose to RM1.41 (dividend RM0.035) in 4 months 27 days, total return is 13.8%

j) SWKPLNT (SARAWAK PLANTATION BHD), recommended on 24 Mar 19, initial price was RM1.55, rose to RM1.72 in 25 days, total return is 11%

k) HSSEB (HSS ENGINEERS BHD), recommended on 20 Jan 19, initial price was RM1.04, rose to RM1.14 in 2 months 25 days, total return is 9.6%

I wish to share my strategy to readers, hope that they can perform well after reading this. I am using Fundamental Analysis:

the forecasted growth of a company must > 14% per year

I wish to convince readers to learn FA in order to make money from stock market.

I am providing STOCK PICK SERVICE for readers who want to make money from Malaysian stock market. Those who want to subscribe to my mailing list to achieve a good return from stock market, you can contact me at jamesngshare@gmail.com or PM me in my FB page https://web.facebook.com/jamesshareinvest/

In order to facilitate the query of the company and stock picking articles and videos I have written, an index has been produced. Everyone can find company and stock picking articles and videos from https://web.facebook.com/jamesshareinvest/posts/2233928256873916 by date.

James的股票投资James Share Investing Blog: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/

James的股票投资James Share Investing Blog Index: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/blidx.jsp

Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/jamesinvesting

This sharing is purely a discussion and analysis of the sector, buying or selling at your own risk. Please Like and Share this post. Final decision is always yours, thank you.

James Ng