• Despite a negative July MPOB report, FCPO continued to scale higher by RM24 to RM2684, supported by strengthening rival edible oils on CBOT and Dalian Commodity Exchange coupled with and the weakening of palm oil currency Ringgit. WoW, the price rebounded 3% or RM78 from RM2606 previously amid hopes of production easing in Aug after the stockpile hit 15M high in July.

• Technically, the bullish head & shoulder pattern (daily chart) and the successful recapture of LT support trendline (weekly chart) augur well for FCPO’s strength to revisit RM2705 (31 Jul high). A decisive breakout above RM2705 will spur prices higher to retest RM2722 (38.2% FR) and RM2751 (50-w SMA) before reaching our LT target at RM2775 (200-d SMA). Conversely, failure to hold at immediate support of RM2635 (10-d SMA) will witness prices falling back towards RM2610 (20-d SMA) and RM2580 (100-d SMA and LT support trendline) levels.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 14 Aug 2017