• WTI surges 6.4% since end Aug. After hitting a floor of US$45.6 (31 Aug), WTI rebounded 10% to end at $50.3, as positive sentiment was supported by renewed demand from refineries previously shut down by the damaging hurricanes, as well as last week's bullish demand forecasts from the OPEC and the IEA. The data also showed that global oil production fell last month for the first time since March, boosting optimism that the market is rebalancing.

• Meanwhile, market players are looking ahead to a meeting Friday between the OPEC and its allies regarding a possible extension of production caps that expire in March 2018, potentially prolonging them well into the 2H18.

• Still potential upside to retest $52 zones after a decisive downtrend line breakout. WTI’s near term outlook has turned positive amid the formation of a triangle breakout and positive oscillators. Further upside targets are $52/53.7/55.0. On the flip side, a violation of $48.5 (downtrend line resistance turned support) will witness further retracement towards $45-47 territory.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 20 Sept 2017