Singapore’s Real GDP Growth Was Also Revised Up to 5.2% Yoy in 3Q17

Thailand’s real GDP growth rose sharply by a better-than-expected 4.3% yoy in 3Q17 (3.9% in 2Q17), higher than market expectations. The strong expansion during the quarter was reflected across the board, with private consumption growth, a share of 53.4% from total GDP, increasing by 3.1% yoy in 3Q17 (3% in 2Q17). This was also in line with strong growth in sales of passenger cars. Likewise, public consumption growth also rose by 2.8% yoy in 3Q17 (2.6% in 2Q17).

Thailand’s net exports rose sharply from -10.8% yoy in 2Q17 to 12.4% in 3Q17, due to robust performance from exports, which expanded by 7.4% yoy in 3Q17 (6% in 2Q17) supported by healthy demand from US, EU China, Japan and Asean countries. Imports expanded moderately by 6.7% yoy in 3Q17 (8.2% yoy in 2Q17). In the month of October, Thailand also posted another strong growth of gross exports, rising from 12.2% yoy in September to 13.1%, as reflected in demand from overseas. By destination, exports to EU increased by 28.9%, followed by China (17.2%), US (11.1%), and Japan (6.3%). Going forward, Thailand National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) is expecting the country’s GDP growth to expand by 3.9% yoy in 2017 (3.2% yoy in 2016), and a range of 3.6-4.6% in 2018. The optimistic view on the outlook also reflects improvement in the global economy, as well as higher global trade volume. Apart from external demand, growth will also be supported by continuous public infrastructure projects under Transportation Action Plan, as well as improvement in employment and household income condition.

Similarly, Singapore also announced its final real GDP growth for 3Q17 this week. Real GDP growth was revised upward, from 4.6% yoy during preliminary to 5.2% yoy in 3Q17, exceeding market expectations of 5.0% expansion. This was the highest growth since 4Q13, as well as third fastest growth among Asean-5 countries, beating Indonesia (5.1%) and Thailand (4.3%). The better-than-expected growth was attributed from higher expansion from both private consumption (3.0% vs 1.5% yoy in 2Q17) and public consumption (6.4% vs 4.0% yoy in 2Q17). Nonetheless, total investment continued to contract further for fifth consecutive quarters, but on a positive note, investment on transport equipment turnaround in third quarter, rising sharply from -7.0% in 2Q17 to 30.6%. As a result, Singapore government has revised upward the country’s real GDP growth for the full year, from 2.0-3.0% to 3.0-3.5% (2.0% in 2016). Meanwhile, growth in 2018 is projected to grow in a range of 1.5-3.5%.

Source: Affin Hwang Research - 24 Nov 2017