Journey to Wealth
POS Malaysia - OUTPERFORM - 24 May 2012
Period 5Q12/15M12
Actual vs. Expectations
The 15M12 core net profit of RM152.9m came in higher than our estimate by 13% but within that of the consensus.
The stronger-than-expected results were mainly due to a slower-than-expected decline in the mail business and the full-year tariff impact during the period.
Dividends No dividend was declared during the quarter. A total gross dividend of 17.5 sen was proposed in March 2012 for FYE March 2012.
Key Results Highlights
YoY, 1QCY12 core net profit of RM29.2m dropped by 37% on the back of a flat growth in revenue. This is mainly due to a higher tax bracket for the quarter with an effective tax rate at 39% as compared to 29% in 1QCY11.
QoQ, 1QCY12 revenue grew by 6% while the core net profit jumped 13%. This is mainly due to the lower loss at its retail division from RM18m to RM8m.
The improvement in the margin and bottom line were mainly due to the full-year impact of the tariff hike.
Outlook We expect the new management to reveal more transformation initiatives in the near-term as its existing Business Transformation Plan is expiring FY12-FY13.
Change to Forecasts
No change to our FY13E earnings forecast of RM79.6m, as we have not factored in the potential new business contribution, i.e. business synergy with financial institutions.
Rating MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM
Maintaining our OUTPERFORM rating due to the attractive upside (+37%) from the current market price coupled with its decent net yield of 4.1%.
Valuation Maintaining our Target Price at RM3.70 based on DCF valuation.
Risks (1) Lag impact from delays in the execution of its transformation plan (2) spike in fuel prices and (3) a higher than expected decline in the mail volume of >10%.
Source: Kenanga
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
