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POS Malaysia - Higher than expected 1Q13 results

kiasutrader
Publish date: Fri, 17 Aug 2012, 11:11 AM

Period   1Q13 

Actual vs. Expectations
The 1Q13 core net profit of RM36m came in higher than our expectation by 15% but was within the consensus. 

The stronger than expected results were mainly due to higher revenue contribution from its other income and courier businesses, which jump by 66% and 34%, respectively. 

Dividends  No dividend was declared during the quarter as expected.

Key Results Highlights
YoY, the 1Q13 core net profit of RM36m increased by 48% (vs. 2QCY11) on the back of a 9% growth in revenue. This was mainly due to higher than expected contributions from its courier and other income (i.e. digital certificates, printing & insertions). The increase was also due to a higher other operating income by 116%.

QoQ, 1Q13 (vs. 1QCY12/5Q12) revenue increased marginally by 1% while the core net profit increased by 25% due to a higher margin recorded from its courier and logistic business from 6% to 23% (higher demand and a decrease in jet fuel cost by 13%). 
   
Outlook  We expect POSM to improve its margin in FY13 arising from its other income and the initiative from its new business plan. We expect a more meaningful impact in FY14, particularly from its shared financing and Islamic Pawn business.     

Change to Forecasts
We have revised up our FY12-13 earnings by 14%  and 1% respectively due to upward revision in its courier margin and higher contribution from other incomes. 

Rating  MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM
Maintaining our OUTPERFORM rating due to the attractive upside (+37%) from the current market price coupled with a decent net dividend yield of 4.3%.  

Valuation   Maintaining our Target Price at RM3.70 based on DCF valuation (FY14).

Risks  (1) Delays in the execution of its business transformation plan (2) a sharp increase in jet fuel price.  

Source: Kenanga
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