Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 1 July 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 01 Jul 2014, 09:39 AM

Malaysia

Bank Negara Reserves At RM420bil. Bank Negara’s official reserve assets were valued at US$130.94bil (RM420.38bil) as of end-May 2014, while other foreign currency assets totalled US$4.45bil. The central bank said in a statement that the detailed breakdown of international reserves under the International Monetary Fund’s Special Data Dissemination Standard format indicated that Malaysia’s reserves remained usable and unencumbered as at end-May 2014. “For the next 12 months, the pre-determined short-term outflow of foreign currency loans would amount to US$267.4mil, arising from scheduled repayments of external borrowings by the Government,” Bank Negara said in a statement. (The Star)

Asia

Japan Output Rebounds In Sign Companies Enduring Tax Rise. Japan’s production rebounded in May, indicating that manufacturers are riding out a sales-tax increase as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks to steer the economy through its aftermath. Industrial output rose 0.5 % after dropping 2.8 % in April, the trade ministry said today. The median forecast of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.9 % increase. The government projects production will decrease 0.7 % in June and increase 1.5 % in July. (Bloomberg)

North America

U.S. Pending Home Sales Hit Eight-Month High In May. Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes hit an eight month high in May, the latest indication that housing was pulling out of a recent soft patch. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Monday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, increased 6.1 % to 103.9, the highest level since September of last year. The % increase was the largest since April 2010, just before the expiration of a tax credit for first-time home buyers, and far outpaced economists' expectations for only a 1.5 % advance. Contracts increased in all regions of the country, with the Northeast and West experiencing the largest gains. (Reuters)

Canadian Consumer Confidence Rises On Real-Estate Outlook. Canadian consumer confidence rose for the first time in a month as optimism about real-estate prices surged to the highest in almost five years. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index climbed to 59.2 for the week ended June 27, from 58.5 in the prior period. The %age of respondents who believe home values in their neighborhood will increase in the next six months rose to 44.1, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2009. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Eurozone Inflation Remains At 0.5%. The rate of inflation in the eurozone remained at 0.5% in June, marking the ninth consecutive month of below-target growth in the 18 member states. Earlier this month the European Central Bank (ECB) introduced fresh measures designed to boost the eurozone, including a "below-zero" interest rate and cheap, long-term bank loans. ECB president Mario Draghi has referred to inflation below 1% as being in "the danger zone". The bank wants inflation to be near 2%. Flash estimates from the EU statistics office, Eurostat, show that the service industry was the only sector to report significant price growth, with a rise of 1.3%, but food, alcohol & tobacco prices were down 0.2%, and industrial goods remained unchanged. (BBC)

German Retail Sales Fall 0.6% In May. German retail sales fell by 0.6 per cent in May in real terms, compared with the previous month, according to data released on Monday. Analysts expect German shoppers to display an increased willingness to spend, as the country’s labour market is robust and interest rates are low. But sales figures in recent months have been disappointing. The Easter holidays started three weeks later this year, compared with 2013, but the monthly figure for April showed no boost to retail sales volumes. The month-on-month decline in May follows a fall of 1.5 per cent in April, compared with March 2014, according to data published by Germany’s federal statistical agency. (Financial Times)

Greek Retail Sales Show Strongest Rebound In Over Two Years. Greek retail sales rebounded in April, data showed on Monday, with Easter shopping helping to post the strongest rise in more than two years. Retail sales by volume rose 7.3 % year-on-year after a downwardly revised 1.2 % drop in March, according to statistics service Elstat. Data showed the increase was driven mainly by strong apparel, footwear and supermarket sales. Greek economic data have begun to show signs of a turnaround in recent months after a six-year recession that depressed incomes and drove down consumer spending. (Reuters)

IMF Signs Off On Latest Cyprus Bailout. The International Monetary Fund's board on Monday confirmed Cyprus was on track with the conditions of its bailout program, enabling the immediate disbursement of 84 million euros ($114 million). The bailout, which totals nine billion euros from the IMF and the European Union over three years, is meant to stabilize Cyprus's financial system and help its economy recover. The IMF board also said it modified one of the fiscal performance criteria that Cyprus was supposed to meet by the end of June, without specifying further. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Posts Quarterly Losses Vs. Pound, Yen. The dollar on Monday posted second-quarter losses against nearly all major rivals, with the exception of the euro. The ICE dollar index, which pits the greenback against six other currencies, fell to 79.784 from 80.0410. For the quarter, the index is down 0.4%. The euro rose to $1.3695 from $1.3630 late Friday. For the quarter, the euro has shed 0.6% against the dollar. The Australian dollar changed course and moved up slightly to 94.32 U.S. cents from 94.25 U.S. cents late in the prior session, for a quarterly gain of 1.67%. The pound rose to $1.7108 from $1.7037 late Friday, netting a 2.7% jump against the dollar in the second quarter. The dollar traded at ¥101.33 versus ¥101.42 late Friday, on track for a quarterly loss of 1.9% against the yen. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent And U.S. Crude Reach 18-Day Low On Easing Iraq Supply Fears. Brent crude fell toward $112 a barrel on Monday, hitting an 18-day low as did U.S. crude near $105, as investors grew less worried about potential supply disruptions from Iraq. Brent lost 94 cents to settle at $112.36 a barrel, its lowest settlement since the rally spurred by the Iraqi crisis started on June 12. U.S. crude lost 37 cents to settle at $105.37 a barrel, also its lowest since June 12. (Reuters)

Gold Rises On Dollar Drop, Fund Buying; Posts Q2 Gain. Gold rose nearly 1% to its highest since mid-April on Monday, with bullion posting its second consecutive quarterly gain as heightened geopolitical tensions boosted its safe-haven appeal. Spot gold was up 0.8 % at $1,325.96 an ounce by 2:31 p.m. (1831 GMT) after hitting a two-month high of $1,328.14, its best since April 14. Silver added 0.1 % to $21.03 an ounce, and was up about 7 % for the quarter, its highest in three quarters. Platinum rose 0.6 % to $1,481.50 an ounce, while palladium was up 0.2 % at $839.95 an ounce. (Reuter)

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