Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 2 July 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 02 Jul 2014, 09:51 AM

Global

Global Manufacturing Activity Accelerated In June. Global manufacturing activity accelerated in June, and with new orders coming in faster output is likely to pick up in the coming months, a business survey showed on Tuesday. JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a four-month high of 52.7 in June from May's 52.1, holding above the 50 mark indicating growth for the 19th month in a row. (Reuters)

Asia Pacific

Japan Firms See Bigger Spending, Outlook Mixed. Major Japanese companies plan to increase spending more than expected this year, Bank of Japan's "tankan" survey showed, adding to signs the country's economic recovery will get back on track after an expected slip in the second quarter. The headline index gauging big manufacturers' sentiment worsened by 5 points from three months ago to plus 12, falling short of market forecasts and deteriorating for the first time in six quarters, the quarterly survey showed on Tuesday. But big manufacturers expect business conditions to improve three months ahead, underscoring their optimism that exports will soon pick up and consumption will weather the tax hike. Reflecting this optimism, big firms plan to boost capital spending by 7.4 % in the current fiscal year ending in March 2015, according to the tankan. (Reuters)

Japan Final June Manufacturing Pmi At 51.5 Vs Flash 51.1. Japanese manufacturing activity expanded in June at a faster pace than initially reported, revised data showed on Tuesday, in a sign that domestic demand has quickly recovered from a sales tax increase at the start of April. The final Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.5 in June, higher than a preliminary reading of 51.1 and more than 49.9 in May. The index rose above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the first time in three months. (Reuters)

South Korea Inflation Rises 1.7% In June. South Korean inflation came in at 1.7 % in June owing to steady rise in the cost of clothes and utilities services, official data showed Tuesday. The figure is the same as May and the fastest pace for 19 months, Statistics Korea said. However, its is still well below the central Bank of Korea's target of 2.5-3.5 %. Prices fell 0.1% month on month. Core inflation, excluding volatile oil and food prices rose 2.1 %, against May's 2.2 %. (Reuters)

China Manufacturing Expands At Fastest Pace This Year. China’s manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace this year, adding to signs that the government’s efforts to arrest a slowdown are helping to stabilize the world’s second biggest economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 51.0, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing, matching analysts’ median estimate and increasing from May’s 50.8. A similar index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 50.7 from the previous month’s 49.4. Numbers above 50 signal expansion. (Bloomberg)

Indonesia Posts May Trade Surplus. Indonesia’s trade balance returned to a surplus in May after imports fell more than expected, the statistics bureau said yesterday, taking some pressure off the fragile rupiah. Indonesia has been trying to curb strong consumption amid sliding exports to keep its current-account deficit from widening and hurting confidence. Uncertainty over the outcome of elections next week has been weighing on investor sentiment. The country’s trade balance was US$70 million in surplus in May. (Reuters)

Australia RBA Holds Rates At Record Low, Keeps Steady View. Australia's central bank kept interest rates steady for the 10th policy meeting in a row on Tuesday, and seemed set to stay on the sidelines for some time to come as the economy weathers a cooling down in mining investment. The local dollar hopped higher as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stopped short of actively trying to talk the currency lower, noting only that it was high by historical standards and thus not as helpful in supporting the economy. All 24 analysts polled by Reuters had expected rates to stay at 2.5 % this month. The vast majority assume the next move will be up, but not until the first quarter of next year at the earliest. (Reuters)

USA

U.S. Factory, Auto Sales Data Bolster Growth Outlook. U.S. manufacturing activity rose at a steady clip in June and automobile sales raced to their highest level in almost eight years, pointing to momentum in the economy after a turbulent start to the year. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity for June was at 55.3, little changed from May's 55.4 reading. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. Notably, a gauge of new orders hit a six-month high in a good omen for business capital spending, which appeared to struggle during the first half of the year. In a separate report Autodata Corp said auto sales increased 1.2 % to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 16.98 million units last month, the highest rate since July 2006. In another report, the Commerce Department said construction spending edged up 0.1 % in May after rising by 0.8 % the prior month. A 0.3 % drop in private construction, which represents more than twothirds

of construction spending, largely offset a 1.0 % rise in public construction. (Reuters)

Europe

U.K. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Quickens On Demand Surge. U.K. manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest pace in seven months as demand surged, adding to signs of a broadening recovery. An industry index rose to 57.5 in June from 57 in May, Markit Economics said today. Economists forecast a decline to 56.8, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A gauge of new orders increased to 61.1 from 59.5, also a seven-month high. The pound strengthened after the report. (Bloomberg)

Euro-Area Manufacturing Slows On France As Spain Gains. Manufacturing in the euro area slowed more than initially estimated in June as a deepening of France’s downturn offset a rise in Spanish activity to a seven-year high. A Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 51.8 last month from 52.2, below a June 23 preliminary reading of 51.9, London-based Markit Economics said today. Manufacturing grew at the fastest pace since 2007 in Spain, while contracting for a second month in France. (Bloomberg)

Eurozone Unemployment Level Sees Slight Fall. The number of people unemployed in the eurozone dipped slightly in May, but not by enough to dent the unemployment rate. Some 18.5 million people were out of work in May, 28,000 fewer than in April, but the jobless rate remained at 11.6%, the Eurostat agency said.

April's figure had initially been reported at 11.7%, but was revised down to 11.6%. (BBC)

German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises For Second Month. German unemployment unexpectedly increased for a second month amid signs of a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy. The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 9,000 to 2.916 million in June, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 10,000, according to the median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The adjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 6.7%, the lowest level in more than two decades. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Australian Dollar Closes At 8-Month High Vs. U.S. Dollar. The Australian dollar reached its highest level against the greenback in eight months after the Reserve Bank of Australia said it would keep its benchmark cash interest rate at a record-low 2.5%. The aussie closed at 94.95 cents, up from 94.32 cents on Monday, the largest move Tuesday among G10 currencies. The ICE dollar index , which pits the greenback against six other currencies, edged up to 79.826 from 79.784 late Monday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved toward just shy of 17,000. The British pound closed at $1.7150 compared with $1.710 late Monday, its highest close since October 2008, bolstered by stronger-than-anticipated U.K. manufacturing data. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Dips On Easing Supply Concerns; China Data Supports. Crude oil prices dipped slightly on Tuesday on easing concerns of supply disruptions due to the conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine, whilst gaining some support from upbeat manufacturing data in China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer. Brent crude lost 7 cents to end at $112.29 a barrel, the lowest settlement since June 12. U.S. oil lost 3 cents to settle at $105.34 a barrel, also the lowest point since June 12. (Reuters)

Platinum At 10-Month High On Supply Worries; Gold Eases. Platinum rose to a 10-month high above $1,500 an ounce on Tuesday, boosted by new positioning by funds at the start of the quarter and long-term supply worries despite the end of South Africa's mining strike. Spot platinum hit its highest since September at $1,511 an ounce and was up 1.5 % at $1,503.50 an ounce by 2:54 p.m. EDT (1854 GMT). Spot palladium was up 1.2 % at $850.33 an ounce. Among other precious metals, spot gold inched up 51cents to $1,327.70, having earlier hit a three-month high at $1,332.10 an ounce. Silver was up 0.5 % at $21.07 an ounce. (Reuters)

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