Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 3 July 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 03 Jul 2014, 09:42 AM

Asia Pacific

Premier Li Says Downward Pressure Still Exists For Chinese Economy. China's Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday downward pressure still existed in its economy despite it operating within a reasonable range and some leading indicators demonstrating a positive trend. Li gave no figures or details and few direct quotes in the comments on the Chinese government's official website, but also addressed the disconnect between government finances and the difficulty of business getting financing. "Our local and central governments have amassed a large amount of funds," Li said. "Some have been idle for a long time and must be used ... to promote economic development and improve people's lives." (Reuters)

Australia Exports Fall Sharply, Sending Currency Lower. Australia's trade data showed a weaker picture than expected Wednesday, with the deficit coming in almost twice what economists had expected. May exports fell a seasonally adjusted 5% from a year earlier, while imports slipped 1%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. This pushed the trade gap to 1.91 billion Australian dollars ($1.81 billion), well above a Dow Jones Newswires survey's consensus forecast for a A$1 billion deficit and widening from a revised A$780 million in April. Australia's trade account was in surplus as recently as March. (Market Watch)

USA

ADP Says Companies In U.S. Add Most Workers Since 2012. Employment at companies climbed in June by the most since November 2012, a sign the U.S. job market is strengthening along with demand, a private payrolls report showed today. The 281,000 surge exceeded the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey and followed a 179,000 increase in May, data from the ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey, showed. The median estimate of economists called for a 205,000 advance. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Small Business Hiring Increases In June. U.S. small businesses increased hiring in June for the ninth consecutive month, adding to signs the labor market is strengthening. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which reported the figures on Wednesday, said that was longest stretch of increases since 2006. "The rather substantial dent in first quarter growth did not have much of an impact on Main Street," the NFIB said in a statement. The NFIB survey of 672 small business owners found 12 % of owners added an average of 3.3 workers per firm over the past few months, up one %age point from May. Fifty-three % of owners hired or posted job openings in the last three months and 43 % reported there were few applicants who qualified for the job. (Reuters)

Military Spending Undercuts Factory Orders. A fall in demand for military equipment spurred a drop in new orders for U.S. factory goods in May, but signs of a healthy appetite for investment in the private sector pointed to broader strength in the economy. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday new orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.5 %. That was a steeper drop than the 0.3 % decline forecasted by analysts. Stripping out military wares, new orders rose a modest 0.2 %. The Commerce Department left unchanged its previous estimate for a proxy for business investment demand, with new orders for non-military capital goods other than aircraft rising 0.7 % in May. Economists in a consensus survey expected factory orders to fall by 0.2 % in May, against a 0.7 % rise in the prior month. (Reuters)

Yellen Says Rate Policy Shouldn’t Change Over Instability. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said there is no need to change current monetary policy to address financial stability concerns although she sees “pockets of increased risk-taking” in the financial system. “Monetary policy faces significant limitations as a tool to promote financial stability,” Yellen said today at the International Monetary Fund in Washington. “Its effects on financial vulnerabilities, such as excessive leverage and maturity transformation, are not well understood and are less direct than a regulatory or supervisory approach.” Yellen said the “primary role” should fall to a macroprudential approach, a combination of multiagency oversight, attention to bank capital and liquidity, and regulatory pressure to create buffers against failure. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Housebuilding Boosts UK Construction Again In June. An increase in housebuilding helped the UK construction industry to grow at its fastest pace for four months in June, a survey has suggested. The Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the sector rose to 62.6 in June from 60.0 in May. The reading beat analysts' forecasts for a fall to 59.5. A measure above 50 indicates growth in the sector. Construction firms also hired new staff at the fastest rate since the survey began in 1997. (BBC)

UK House Prices Surpass 2007 Peak, Says Nationwide. UK house prices have risen above their peak of 2007, the Nationwide has said, after prices climbed 1% in June and were up 11.8% from a year earlier. The building society said the average value of a UK property was £188,903, but in London it had surpassed £400,000 for the first time. Despite the acceleration in house prices, it said there was "significant variation" across the country. And it expected price gains to slow in London from July onwards. (BBC)

Currencies

Euro Closes Slightly Down Ahead Of ECB Meeting. The euro closed down at $1.3666, compared with $1.3682 late Tuesday, ahead of what analysts expect will be an uneventful European Central Bank policy meeting Thursday. The Aussie closed at 94.41 cents, down from a closing price of 94.91 cents Tuesday evening as May exports fell a seasonally adjusted 5% from a year earlier, while imports slipped 1%. The ICE U.S. Dollar index, which pits the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 79.9580 from its previous close of 79.815. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Skids To Near 3 Week Lows On Libyan Supply Expectations. Crude oil fell by about $1 on Wednesday on encouraging signs for supply from Libya and Iraq, with prices headed toward the lowest close in almost three weeks despite support from a big draw in U.S. oil inventories. Brent futures were down $1 a barrel around $111 a barrel, while U.S. oil fell more than a dollar intraday, but bounced off its session low to trade down 86 cents at $104.48. (Reuters)

Platinum Hits 10-Month High But Ends Flat; Gold Up. Platinum ended flat on Wednesday as investors took profits after the precious metal rallied to a 10-month high on lingering long-term supply worries despite the end of a strike by South African miners. Spot platinum inched down 40 cents to $1,502.50 an ounce by 3:37 p.m. EDT (1937 GMT). Spot palladium was up 0.3 % at $852.75 an ounce. Among other precious metals, spot gold edged up 0.1 % to $1,327.21. Spot silver was up 0.5 % to $21.12 an ounce. (Reuters)

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